Hays discusses core injury sustained last season

[owknows]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

The only thing I see is that Hays had a better minor league career. To me it seemed like Mullins had a legit breakthrough and looking at minor league numbers becomes less relevant the further we are from them. 
 

Given that both Hays and Mullins have a 5 year Minor League resume, and about 1.5 years each of scattered MLB experience, I don't think it's unreasonable to compare their MiLB numbers.

That will become less relevant as you say... when they have more MLB experience.

Cedric has one year of healthy MLB experience in which he performed at this level. That, after having made major changes to his offensive game by abandoning switch hitting. Maybe he had a breakthrough year. Or maybe he'll regress a little. I'm bullish on his future either way.

Hays has put together some scattered encouraging MLB results in his own right. While battling some pretty significant injuries. In fact, I think it's fair to say that over the second half of this season, he outperformed Cedric.

You might think Mullins has a brighter future. He may indeed.

But you seem to be acting as though it is inconceivable that Hays may have a better career in the long run. Or that it is an insult to Ced Mullins if he does. Neither of which is so.

Edited November 24, 2021 by owknows
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[Ruzious]

Good thread.  Given how strongly Hays finished last season, I think he could have a breakthrough season next year.  

[waroriole]

25 minutes ago, owknows said:

But you seem to be acting as though it is inconceivable that Hays may have a better career in the long run. Or that it is an insult to Ced Mullins if he does. Neither of which is so.

I think I’ve been pretty clear in saying there is nothing that Hays does better than Cedric, other than OF throws. Minor league numbers from 2+ years ago just aren’t that relevant when we have recent ML performance to go by. 

[yark14]

I love the way he plays.  Heart and hustle.  If he stays healthy next year, it wouldn't surprise me the least if he puts together a season very similar to Mullins had this year.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think I’ve been pretty clear in saying there is nothing that Hays does better than Cedric, other than OF throws. Minor league numbers from 2+ years ago just aren’t that relevant when we have recent ML performance to go by. 

Before 2021, people were skeptical that Cedric could even stick in the majors.   He had a career .632 OPS in 115 games; Hays was at .744 in 74 games.   I wouldn’t get too caught up in Mullins’ one good season, though I think he obviously answered the question of whether he can stick in the majors.   The question of who will be better in the future isn’t decided exclusively by 2021.   

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Before 2021, people were skeptical that Cedric could even stick in the majors.   He had a career .632 OPS in 115 games; Hays was at .744 in 74 games.   I wouldn’t get too caught up in Mullins’ one good season, though I think he obviously answered the question of whether he can stick in the majors.   The question of who will be better in the future isn’t decided exclusively by 2021.   

I don’t disagree that Hays could be better than Mullins in the future. What I’ve been asking is what is it that Hays does better? All I’ve really seen is that he had better minor league numbers. That doesn’t tell me what part of Austin’s game is better than Cedric. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I don’t disagree that Hays could be better than Mullins in the future. What I’ve been asking is what is it that Hays does better? All I’ve really seen is that he had better minor league numbers. That doesn’t tell me what part of Austin’s game is better than Cedric. 

It’s kind of a circular question if all you are going on is 2021.   But I think Hays will hit for more power and a better average, though he did neither last year.  

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I don’t disagree that Hays could be better than Mullins in the future. What I’ve been asking is what is it that Hays does better? All I’ve really seen is that he had better minor league numbers. That doesn’t tell me what part of Austin’s game is better than Cedric. 

Don’t the better numbers tell you what Hays is better at?

[interloper]

It would be great if he learned how to dive more gracefully. He's always landing on a shoulder or wrist out there, with his glove trapped underneath his body. Makes me nervous whenever he dives. 

[wildcard]

If I am projecting based on past history I have to project that Mullins will stay healthy which allows him to put up good numbers and Hays will have injuries  which will limit his time on the field and sometimes limit his effectiveness on the field.

Its hard to put up numbers from the IL.

[Tony-OH]

You know what I get out of this thread, that @Frobbyand @Sports Guy are Mullins haters!

Seriously though, Hays has always been a very talented player that has been limited by injuries. 

Saying that, he needs to improve his hitting against right-handed pitching after a year in which he hit slashed .221/.283/.400/.682 in 315 PAs against them. Now the good news is this is really the first time he's had a big split so I'm not overly worried unless we have another season where he has a big split. Then you start thinking he's Gary Roenicke and may need to have a platoon mate (Neustrom???).

Some other good news is he lowered his chase rate to a career best 29.4% (28.3% is MLB avg) and his other statcast metrics make him out to an average big league hitter. If he increases his walk rate a bit that would increase his OBP which would make him more valuable.

The core injury also explains the big drop in spring speed and outfield ability. Maybe he's ll get some of that back though he's increasing in age a bit so that could offset anything gained from the surgery.

The key to hi statements though is him saying he learned he can play through "nagging injuries" and still be productive. I think a lot of players have been told to shut things down too fast nowadays because everyone's worried about it becoming something major and costing them money. Hays played through his discomfort, had success, and dealt with things in the offseason. 

Looking forward to him patrolling left field next year full time.

[waroriole]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s kind of a circular question if all you are going on is 2021.   But I think Hays will hit for more power and a better average, though he did neither last year.  

I’m not going off only 2021. But it should be given more weight. I can see why Hays might hit for more power but Cedric has the better launch angle and exit velocity over his career. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You know what I get out of this thread, that @Frobbyand @Sports Guy are Mullins haters!

Seriously though, Hays has always been a very talented player that has been limited by injuries. 

Saying that, he needs to improve his hitting against right-handed pitching after a year in which he hit slashed .221/.283/.400/.682 in 315 PAs against them. Now the good news is this is really the first time he's had a big split so I'm not overly worried unless we have another season where he has a big split. Then you start thinking he's Gary Roenicke and may need to have a platoon mate (Neustrom???).

Some other good news is he lowered his chase rate to a career best 29.4% (28.3% is MLB avg) and his other statcast metrics make him out to an average big league hitter. If he increases his walk rate a bit that would increase his OBP which would make him more valuable.

The core injury also explains the big drop in spring speed and outfield ability. Maybe he's ll get some of that back though he's increasing in age a bit so that could offset anything gained from the surgery.

The key to hi statements though is him saying he learned he can play through "nagging injuries" and still be productive. I think a lot of players have been told to shut things down too fast nowadays because everyone's worried about it becoming something major and costing them money. Hays played through his discomfort, had success, and dealt with things in the offseason. 

Looking forward to him patrolling left field next year full time.

Hey now…I much prefer the label of Mullins skeptic than Mullins hater.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If I am projecting based on past history I have to project that Mullins will stay healthy which allows him to put up good numbers and Hays will have injuries  which will limit his time on the field and sometimes limit his effectiveness on the field.

Yeah, I think it might literally be this simple. It could just come down to who is able to get more plate appearances, and in that case, you have to go with Mullins. 

I actually really like the idea of Hays being a platoon guy. You maximize his strengths, keep him healthy, and you have the bonus of still being able to sub him in defensively late in games if he didn't start. 

[sportsfan8703]

46 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Good thread.  Given how strongly Hays finished last season, I think he could have a breakthrough season next year.  

I agree, he does seem like he’s on the verge of a breakout season. He’s got to stop throwing himself around out there. We don’t need that. I just don’t want him to be Reimold 2.0.