“Don’t worry, we will spend next year”

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Part of the problem right now, is that we don't really know what holes we are going to have in 2023/2024.  The only holes I can say we will most definitely have is SP.   The prognosis is good in the OF, C, and 1B.  2B, SS, 3B are where the questions lie.  And you don't want to pay big for a SP when the years you are are most likely to get good value on the contract, are going to be losing years anyway.  I'm waiting to pay big on an IF.  After 2022 we should know what we have in Westburg, Henderson, Norby, maybe even Mayo as they hit the upper levels of the minors. 

We don't know.

I hope that Elias and company have a pretty good idea.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We don't know.

I hope that Elias and company have a pretty good idea.

To me, you never really know until they reach the majors and perform well there. There have been countless cases (not just with the Orioles) where highly touted minor leaguers flopped in the majors, or took much longer than expected to hit their stride.   I do think Elias & co. have a better idea than we do of the probability of success for our various players, but they also know that they aren’t always going to be right.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me, you never really know until they reach the majors and perform well there. There have been countless cases (not just with the Orioles) where highly touted minor leaguers flopped in the majors, or took much longer than expected to hit their stride.   I do think Elias & co. have a better idea than we do of the probability of success for our various players, but they also know that they aren’t always going to be right.  

Sure.

But if you do end up blocking a young player because of a position change you do have the option to trade one of the extra pieces.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure.

But if you do end up blocking a young player because of a position change you do have the option to trade one of the extra pieces.

Agreed.   

[emmett16]

I always saw 2023+ as when things would start to change and that the team would spend money.  I don’t think they spend much money next year either.  Elias was signed just over 3 years ago (nov. 16 2018), and one of those years being the crazy Covid year.  Chris Davis contract was supposed to be done (not including deferments, but the bulk) by 2023.  He has one decent J2 under his belt and some international players will start to hit low A this year.   I give Elias 5 years to turn the organization around and I believe that is more or less the goal for him as well. By year 5 (Nov 16 2023) our first wave of international players will be on the doorstep in AA & AAA, Adley & G Rod will have 1+ years of service time & experience, and the supporting cast (including the 1-1) will be MLB ready as well.  At that point, we will finally be close to being on an equal playing field as the rest of MLB.  I imagine that is when we will have an exciting team and Elias will be making a few key FA signings.  I feel as if they have been honest to us, more or less, about what they are trying to do.  If the wool is being pulled out before our eyes and the 5 year plan didn’t work (we were “deceived”), I think I might need to find another team to pull for or (more or less what I do now) just pull for players on my fantasy team, but I’m not gonna get upset about them not spending $$ this off season or next.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I always saw 2023+ as when things would start to change and that the team would spend money.  I don’t think they spend much money next year either.  Elias was signed just over 3 years ago (nov. 16 2018), and one of those years being the crazy Covid year.  Chris Davis contract was supposed to be done (not including deferments, but the bulk) by 2023.  He has one decent J2 under his belt and some international players will start to hit low A this year.   I give Elias 5 years to turn the organization around and I believe that is more or less the goal for him as well. By year 5 (Nov 16 2023) our first wave of international players will be on the doorstep in AA & AAA, Adley & G Rod will have 1+ years of service time & experience, and the supporting cast (including the 1-1) will be MLB ready as well.  At that point, we will finally be close to being on an equal playing field as the rest of MLB.  I imagine that is when we will have an exciting team and Elias will be making a few key FA signings.  I feel as if they have been honest to us, more or less, about what they are trying to do.  If the wool is being pulled out before our eyes and the 5 year plan didn’t work (we were “deceived”), I think I might need to find another team to pull for or (more or less what I do now) just pull for players on my fantasy team, but I’m not gonna get upset about them not spending $$ this off season or next.  

When Elias took over were you expecting 110 loses in 2021?

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

When Elias took over were you expecting 110 loses in 2021?

I was expecting a lot.   110 is a little higher than I hoped, mostly because our young pitching had a very rocky year.  

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

When Elias took over were you expecting 110 loses in 2021?

I would have bet on 100.

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

When Elias took over were you expecting 110 loses in 2021?

I was expecting unwatchable baseball for 3-4 years.  Expected to see something worth watching in year 5. 

[waroriole]

No reason we couldn’t have given him a similar deal. This year and next we won’t have any kind of payroll, and this wouldn’t cause long term problems because he’s off the books by ‘24 at the latest. We’d have a more watchable product.
 

I’m all in favor of a salary minimum. It’s sad teams have to be forced to field an actual ML product, but so be it. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, waroriole said:

No reason we couldn’t have given him a similar deal. This year and next we won’t have any kind of payroll, and this wouldn’t cause long term problems because he’s off the books by ‘24 at the latest. We’d have a more watchable product.
 

I’m all in favor of a salary minimum. It’s sad teams have to be forced to field an actual ML product, but so be it. 

He doesn’t sign here for a similar deal.

I would have put something like 4/100 with an Opt out after 3 years…he gets 85M in the first 3 years.

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He doesn’t sign here for a similar deal.

I would have put something like 4/100 with an Opt out after 3 years…he gets 85M in the first 3 years.

Yeah I might give him that deal. Like I said, we have no payroll the next few years. It gives some stability to the rotation and it’s not too long term. 

[interloper]

18 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I was expecting unwatchable baseball for 3-4 years.  Expected to see something worth watching in year 5. 

Yep. 

People can joke, but I really do think next offseason heading into 2023 is the time to really start supplementing. Ideally we'll have Adley, G-rod, Hall, Westburg, Stowers up, among others. If they look good, it's time to start finding some pieces through FA and trade.

Cowser, Mayo, Norby, Henderson, Kjerstad, etc represents a second wave not far behind. So that's starting to look like a pipeline. Especially if the international side starts to really get cranking. 

[NCRaven]

Even with Stroman, there is no way we would compete for a playoff spot in 2022.  It's unlikely we'd be quite that good in 2023 even if all of Rutschman, Westburg, Henderson, Stowers, and Cowser made it onto the roster by the end of that season - and what are the odds that all of them make it by then.  So this contract would pay Stroman $50 million to pitch in two non-competitive season just to see him walk away or hold us up for a more expensive extension just as we need him to anchor a winning rotation.  How would that make any sense at all?  

If anyone wants to argue that we should have tried to sign him to a 4/$90mil or 5/$110mil without the opt outs, then I'm on your side.  But not the contract that he signed with the Cubs.  I'm not sure that contract makes sense for Chicago and I am sure that it doesn't for the O's.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Even with Stroman, there is no way we would compete for a playoff spot in 2022.  It's unlikely we'd be quite that good in 2023 even if all of Rutschman, Westburg, Henderson, Stowers, and Cowser made it onto the roster by the end of that season - and what are the odds that all of them make it by then.  So this contract would pay Stroman $50 million to pitch in two non-competitive season just to see him walk away or hold us up for a more expensive extension just as we need him to anchor a winning rotation.  How would that make any sense at all?  

If anyone wants to argue that we should have tried to sign him to a 4/$90mil or 5/$110mil without the opt outs, then I'm on your side.  But not the contract that he signed with the Cubs.  I'm not sure that contract makes sense for Chicago and I am sure that it doesn't for the O's.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Stroman would make the O's a contender in 2022 but he would be under contract past 2022.