Trade Bait 2022

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, they could trade him and bring him back next year.

Doing the Ponson?

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

With Mountcastle at first and Adley, Santander and others needing DH at bats how much value does he have for the O's?

Mancini has a ton of value to the surging O's.   He is a productive veteran who other players looks to for leadership.   He is  a run producer, middle of the order bat, with a 357 OBP.   And he stabilize the clubhouse with a strong veteran presence. 

Stowers can't replace that.

When a team is surging like the O's are you don't tear their heart out.   Its just not a smart move.   The future is now.  They are winning now.  They are contending now.

The other thing to figure in is the Hays has a sore wrist.   He has a 359 OPS over the last 15 games.  Hyde is giving him two days off but he may need more than that.  He could go on the 10 day IL and Stowers could be called up to replace Hays.

If the O's want to keep winning Mancini needs to stay.  Extend him.  Then figure out who stays long  term over the winter.

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he's traded he's every bit is likely to be here next year than if he isn't traded.

I think we can accept as fact the concept that both sides won't pick up the mutual option.

What is the likely range for his next contract?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

Mancini has a ton of value to the surging O's.   He is a productive veteran who other players looks to for leadership.   He is  a run producer, middle of the order bat, with a 357 OBP.   And he stabilize the clubhouse with a strong veteran presence. 

Stowers can't replace that.

When a team is surging like the O's are you don't tear their heart out.   Its just not a smart move.   The future is now.  They are winning now.  They are contending now.

The other thing to figure in is the Hays has a sore wrist.   He has a 359 OPS over the last 15 games.  Hyde is giving him two days off but he may need more than that.  He could go on the 10 day IL and Stowers could be called up to replace Hays.

If the O's want to keep winning Mancini needs to stay.  Extend him.  Then figure out who stays long  term over the winter.

Is this a Mancini Fanfic?

 

[MurphDogg]

3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What is the likely range for his next contract?

I'm not really sure what the going rate is for a 31-year-old 1B/DH/emergency corner outfielder with a career 116 OPS+.

The universal DH helps.

Maybe 3/$30M?

[Aristotelian]

21 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Does Mancini really have enough trade value to bring a return greater than his value to the O's?

That's the thing, he is on paper the most expendable but for that reason probably nets the lowest return. I almost think the value of keeping him around for a competitive stretch run is higher than anything we could hope to get back. Why not run with it? Let's just admit the window to trade him has passed.

[MurphDogg]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The other thing to figure in is the Hays has a sore wrist.   He has a 359 OPS over the last 15 games.  Hyde is giving him two days off but he may need more than that.  He could go on the 10 day IL and Stowers could be called up to replace Hays.

Fortunately the Orioles only play 5 games over the next 11 days.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I'm not really sure what the going rate is for a 31-year-old 1B/DH/emergency corner outfielder with a career 116 OPS+.

The universal DH helps.

Maybe 3/$30M?

How excited would the fans here be if the O's signed a 31-year-old 1B/DH/emergency corner outfielder with a career 116 OPS+ to a 3/30 deal and his name wasn't Mancini?

 

[waroriole]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mancini has a ton of value to the surging O's.   He is a productive veteran who other players looks to for leadership.   He is  a run producer, middle of the order bat, with a 357 OBP.   And he stabilize the clubhouse with a strong veteran presence. 

Stowers can't replace that.

When a team is surging like the O's are you don't tear their heart out.   Its just not a smart move.   The future is now.  They are winning now.  They are contending now.

The other thing to figure in is the Hays has a sore wrist.   He has a 359 OPS over the last 15 games.  Hyde is giving him two days off but he may need more than that.  He could go on the 10 day IL and Stowers could be called up to replace Hays.

If the O's want to keep winning Mancini needs to stay.  Extend him.  Then figure out who stays long  term over the winter.

Extending Mancini is a silly and terrible move. But, I can buy the don’t trade him argument, at least as long as we’re in solid wildcard contention. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That's the thing, he is on paper the most expendable but for that reason probably nets the lowest return. I almost think the value of keeping him around for a competitive stretch run is higher than anything we could hope to get back. Why not run with it? Let's just admit the window to trade him has passed.

Because holding onto assets for emotional reasons is part of what got the team into the mess they are currently climbing out of.

[waroriole]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Because holding onto assets for emotional reasons is part of what got the team into the mess they are currently climbing out of.

Is it emotional reasons if you just don’t trade him and you’re in wildcard contention? What do you think Mancini brings back in a trade?

[MurphDogg]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How excited would the fans here be if the O's signed a 31-year-old 1B/DH/emergency corner outfielder with a career 116 OPS+ to a 3/30 deal and his name wasn't Mancini?

I may have been a little low on the 3/$30M. Mark Canha is a pretty good comp. He was a first time free agent after the 2021 season with 6+ years of service time. Career 114 OPS+, poor defensive corner outfielder whose ideal position is first base or DH. 

Canha was 33 entering this season, while Mancini will be 31 entering next year.

Canha signed a two year deal with an option with the Mets worth a guaranteed $26.5M and an additional $9.5M if the 2024 option is picked up.

Given that he is two years younger, Mancini probably gets that third year guaranteed for a 3/$36M total possibly with a 4th year option that bumps the guaranteed money to $38M.

Most people on this board would be against it, most other Orioles fans would be for it. It wouldn't cripple the team financially but it hurts the team's flexibility to have both starting 1B/DH slots locked up between Mancini and Mountcastle.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Is it emotional reasons if you just don’t trade him and you’re in wildcard contention? What do you think Mancini brings back in a trade?

Probably nothing of consequence.

But possibly a piece that helps the team for years to come.

Which is better odds than the nothing they get if they don't trade him.

[DirtyBird]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How excited would the fans here be if the O's signed a 31-year-old 1B/DH/emergency corner outfielder with a career 116 OPS+ to a 3/30 deal and his name wasn't Mancini?

 

Only Mountcastle has an OPS+ higher than 116 this season.

[sevastras]

Theoretically, Mancini may have more value staying if he helps get them to a wc. The increase in attendance leading up to that may have more cash value then what little he returns in a trade. Just a thought, not advocating one way or the other at this point. A month ago I was saying trade him and Santander but now I am kind of liking this possibility of making the playoffs even though I doubt they would go far. But, it’s baseball and that is why they play the games.