Fangraphs: Laurila fresh interview with Elias

[Just Regular]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-orioles-general-manager-mike-elias/

David Laurila's good questions elicit maybe a little more than any Zoom gaggle might get.  But still nothing really, lest clues to any advantage-driving proprietary-type decisions get into the interwebs.

Were I to try to list takeaways of slightly more descriptive words Elias offered, in the style of activating the Winter Soldier, I would go: Meld, Fixable, Constrains, Prognosticate, Prodigious.

Scouting director Elias back in November 2014 on the other hand was more expansive, and going through Laurila's links all the way back to that, now I half expect us to trade for JD Davis to be our 3B.    I haven't memorized if by November 2014 the Astros had taken their pitch-type preferences to the international market for their Valdez, Urquidy, Javier, Garcia basket of acquisitions.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/qa-mike-elias-houston-astros-director-of-amateur-scouting/

[Frobby]

Laurila asks such good questions.   This is one of the best interviews of Elias I’ve seen.  

Also, notice from the intro that the O’s are going to have 6 in the Fangraphs top 100, with Mayo joining the usual 5.   
 

[justD]

I guess I didn’t realize that our philosophy was to prioritize the drafting of high school players.
 

Quote

Laurila: Philosophically, what do the Orioles prioritize?

Elias: “Something we do is take a good share of high school players. And I think that we’ve proven an ability to choose our high school players wisely. That comes from scouting and knowing how to evaluate players at that age level. There’s no way around that, because you don’t have the college statistics. Since we’ve been in Baltimore, we’re very excited and proud of a lot of the players we’ve selected out of high school. They still have a ways to go, but that’s no fault of theirs. Going back to my days with the Astros, I feel the same way.”

Laurila: Is part of the appeal of high school players that they’re easier to “mold,” whereas a player with three years of college under his belt is, by comparison, more settled into how he goes about things? 

Elias: “There may be some of that, but I just think if you’re not getting into the high school market, you’re going to miss out on some prodigious talents. For somebody to be that good at age 17 or 18, and inspiring a major league team to select you over a closer, more-knowable college player, you’re showing that type of potential at a younger age. I think there are [higher] odds of getting a prodigious talent out of high school, so we’re careful to be heavily involved in the high school market. One of the unique things about baseball is that we take players out of the high school market more than any other American sport. It’s a big important part of where the talent comes from in our game, and we want to be really good at it.”

 

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, justD said:

I guess I didn’t realize that our philosophy was to prioritize the drafting of high school players.
 

 

Either Mike is blowing smoke here or talking about the future.  The percentage of HS players he has taken in his first three drafts for the O's has been a small percentage.

2021 in 20 rounds he took one  Creed Wilems in the 8th round.

2020 with 6 picks he took 2 -  Mayo and Baumler.

2019 in 40 rounds he took Gunnar with his 2nd pick,  Darell Herniaz at 5 and HSers from 34 to 40.

He has been very selective when taking HS high in the draft.  Maybe he is pleased with the ones he did take but it has not been a high volume.

[Jammer7]

A really good interview. To me, the HS pick comments were about his career in scouting/drafting, not just about Baltimore. Though I do think they will take more HS players in future drafts than they have in the first three. Elias did take more HS players in Houston than he has here, so far. 

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Were I to try to list takeaways of slightly more descriptive words Elias offered, in the style of activating the Winter Soldier, I would go: Meld, Fixable, Constrains, Prognosticate, Prodigious.

 

I'm not going to lie, I read this thing four times before realizing it almost turned my brain inside out trying to understand what you are talking about here! 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not going to lie, I read this thing four times before realizing it almost turned my brain inside out trying to understand what you are talking about here! 

I have just stopped trying to understand.  

[NCRaven]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Either Mike is blowing smoke here or talking about the future.  The percentage of HS players he has taken in his first three drafts for the O's has been a small percentage.

I’m with you here.  I was surprised by that comment, as well.  The quality may be there, particularly with Henderson and Mayo.  But, certainly not quantity.

[waroriole]

Interesting reference to pure velocity since radar guns are imperfect. I’d love to know how that is calculated. 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not going to lie, I read this thing four times before realizing it almost turned my brain inside out trying to understand what you are talking about here! 

Ready to comply?   

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

A really good interview. To me, the HS pick comments were about his career in scouting/drafting, not just about Baltimore. Though I do think they will take more HS players in future drafts than they have in the first three. Elias did take more HS players in Houston than he has here, so far. 

I think what Elias was saying is that you have to pay attention to the high school market because of the upside talent that be acquired; however, he understands the volatility of selecting a young player without college stats to help evaluate. 

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Interesting reference to pure velocity since radar guns are imperfect. I’d love to know how that is calculated. 

Here was the conversation about velocity:

Quote

Elias: “No fault of theirs, but we’ve always had radar guns measuring velocity. Every baseball person, every scout, has had the experience of watching a pitcher light up the radar gun, but then not perform as well as his velocity would suggest. A lot of the tech we have now allows us to understand why that sort of thing happens. That would be probably the main thing we’ve got our arms around a lot better.”

Laurila: By and large, pure velocity was overrated…

Elias: “We had a device that measured it, and because it was measurable, you put a lot of weight into it. But it wasn’t capturing the whole picture. Now we are able to measure some of [the other] properties, and that’s allowing us to weight the pure velocity a little bit better in the overall grading of a pitch.”

What he was saying is that velocity is only one part of what makes a fastball good or not. With Rapsodo and TrackMan, they now know how much spin is on the pitch as well as movement (exact vertical and horizontal movement). 

Obviously command of the pitch is very important as well, and now they have data on that as well when it comes to where a pitch has more success with his pitches. This is why you see a lot of high spin with true backspin fastballs being worked higher in the zone with success.

A lot of good high school pitchers are going to Perfect Game and other evaluation camps where these measurables can be taken giving scouts much more info than sitting behind homeplate with a radar gun.

 

 

[btdart20]

This is a few years old (and pre-Covid), but the trend was toward college.  Under 20% draftees were HS picks.  

Draft System Has Pushed Teams To Pick More College Players (baseballamerica.com)

Of the 41 picks we had in 2019, we took 8 HS players (19.5%).  Basically, in line with 'industry averages.'  2020 we took 2 HS players in our 6 picks.  33%.  2021 we only took 1 HS player of 21 picks.  Less than 5%.  (115 HS players drafted of the 612 total = 18+%.) 

2021 MLB Draft Break Down – The JBB - (If this can be trusted... but I wasn't about to go round by round.)

So, this makes us question his HS focus response.  He's obviously proud of the success and success rate of the HS guys we have drafted.  Either 2021 he drafted college players for MLB competitive window timing or college players because he thought other teams were over-valuing the HS players.

When Elias (or any GM) does these types of interviews, it's a cat/mouse game.  He's probably talking about broad trends in the industry as things the O's are also looking at.  

 

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Here was the conversation about velocity:

What he was saying is that velocity is only one part of what makes a fastball good or not. With Rapsodo and TrackMan, they now know how much spin is on the pitch as well as movement (exact vertical and horizontal movement). 

Obviously command of the pitch is very important as well, and now they have data on that as well when it comes to where a pitch has more success with his pitches. This is why you see a lot of high spin with true backspin fastballs being worked higher in the zone with success.

A lot of good high school pitchers are going to Perfect Game and other evaluation camps where these measurables can be taken giving scouts much more info than sitting behind homeplate with a radar gun.

 

 

Thanks. I didn’t know if they’ve developed a quick and easy metric for it, but it’s interesting to see how much pitching evaluation has improved.