Colton Cowser 2022

[OriolesMagic83]

Cowser walked 3 times and only struck out twice in a doubleheader.  Maybe he's starting to get back in a groove.

I was a major critic of this pick when it was made.  I was hoping for either an elite arm or an elite SS.  Leiter was already gone, can't remember who was the best pitcher left at the time.  Lawler would have been a great pick.

All I can do is hope Cowser makes it to the majors as a regular.  I feel like this was a safe pick.  Bu safe, I mean a high likelihood to make it to the majors and be a regular.   When you take over the worst franchise in baseball, you shouldn't be making safe picks. 

 

 

[RZNJ]

LmYou shouldn't be making safe picks or risky picks. You should be making good picks.   There's a combination of risk and upside in each player.  

Too early to say that Cowser didn't have the best combination although the strikeouts are a huge concern. 

Lawlar looks great so far and I'd be excited if he was an Oriole but you can find red flags with him as well.

9 errors in 20 games at SS.  

[Sports Guy]

Lawlar should have been the pick but Cowser was the next best thing imo.

[RZNJ]

Cowser has what looks to be an extreme ground ball rate this year at 2.2. Last year it was 1.41.  A quick look at other prospects shows Gunnar at 1.17, Rhodes and Mayo as extreme in-the-air around 0.5, and Westburg around 1.3.  

I'm guessing that rate for Cowser is not a good thing especially combined with the swing and miss which leads me to this.  I hope like hell this is a swing adjustment he's going through.   

[btdart20]

41 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Cowser has what looks to be an extreme ground ball rate this year at 2.2. Last year it was 1.41.  A quick look at other prospects shows Gunnar at 1.17, Rhodes and Mayo as extreme in-the-air around 0.5, and Westburg around 1.3.  

I'm guessing that rate for Cowser is not a good thing especially combined with the swing and miss which leads me to this.  I hope like hell this is a swing adjustment he's going through.   

I was looking at the hit distribution earlier and saw both Cowser and Westburg have a lower Oppo% compared to prior years.  So, I'm hoping it's a swing adjustment for both of them.  Westburg really low babip, while Cowser's babip is around .400.

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I'm guessing that rate for Cowser is not a good thing especially combined with the swing and miss which leads me to this.  I hope like hell this is a swing adjustment he's going through.   

Has anyone whose had a chance to watch Cowser play last year and this year noticed any differences in the swing that would indicate if that is likely or a possibility?  

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Lawlar should have been the pick but Cowser was the next best thing imo.

Just curious.  Does that opinion ever change if Cowser becomes an all-star CF and Lawlar becomes an average 3B?    I'm not suggesting that's what happens.   Just wondering if there is anything that happens where you say that Cowser was the better pick?

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Just curious.  Does that opinion ever change if Cowser becomes an all-star CF and Lawlar becomes an average 3B?    I'm not suggesting that's what happens.   Just wondering if there is anything that happens where you say that Cowser was the better pick?

Obviously performance dictates the answer.  
 

That said, I think you judge these decisions on when they are made, similar to a trade.

Taking Cowser over Lawlar wasn’t the right move especially since they spent most of the saved money on a C who couldn’t even make a full season club to start the year this year.

They could have still had Rhodes.

 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Obviously performance dictates the answer.  
 

That said, I think you judge these decisions on when they are made, similar to a trade.

Taking Cowser over Lawlar wasn’t the right move especially since they spent most of the saved money on a C who couldn’t even make a full season club to start the year this year.

They could have still had Rhodes.

 

Right you judge your decision at the time of the draft and so did Elias/Ciolek.   You really think they liked Lawlar better but took Cowser so they could nab Willems?

More likely, they actually liked Cowser equal or better to Lawlar.  

You're actually giving two answers.  One is that the decision you made on draft day won't change because it should be judged at the time it was made and you're also saying that results dictate the answer.

So either you can never be wrong because you feel taking Lawlar was the right decision than and that will never change or you will be wrong if Cowser turns out to be the better player.      Can you please clarify which one of these you are going with?

I

[btdart20]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That said, I think you judge these decisions on when they are made, similar to a trade.

 

Judging the decision based on the information available at the time of the draft is best.  But that's easier said than done in hindsight.  I was in Camp Watson last year myself, but that's water under the bridge. 

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right you judge your decision at the time of the draft and so did Elias/Ciolek.   You really think they liked Lawlar better but took Cowser so they could nab Willems?

More likely, they actually liked Cowser equal or better to Lawlar.  

You're actually giving two answers.  One is that the decision you made on draft day won't change because it should be judged at the time it was made and you're also saying that results dictate the answer.

So either you can never be wrong because you feel taking Lawlar was the right decision than and that will never change or you will be wrong if Cowser turns out to be the better player.      Can you please clarify which one of these you are going with?

I

I guess I misunderstood your question.  No, I would always say Lawlar was the better pick.

I think they took Cowser to save money to spend later.  I don’t believe they had Cowser rated higher, just as I don’t believe they had Kjerstad second on their board.  
 

In other words, I don’t think the Os draft BPA.

[geschinger]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I guess I misunderstood your question.  No, I would always say Lawlar was the better pick.

I think they took Cowser to save money to spend later.  I don’t believe they had Cowser rated higher, just as I don’t believe they had Kjerstad second on their board.  
 

In other words, I don’t think the Os draft BPA.

It will be interesting to see what they do this year if we do end up as expected with a consensus BPA.

I can believe Lawlar was higher rated but by how much?  The gap in signing bonuses was huge - almost $2m more for Lawlar.  I think Lawlar would have had to have been much higher rated than Cowser on their board to be the better pick considering it would have come at the expense of the draft pool resources necessary to have taken a shot on Rhodes and Willems later on.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I guess I misunderstood your question.  No, I would always say Lawlar was the better pick.

I think they took Cowser to save money to spend later.  I don’t believe they had Cowser rated higher, just as I don’t believe they had Kjerstad second on their board.  
 

In other words, I don’t think the Os draft BPA.

Lawler cost $1.7 more than Cowser.   That’s quite a lot of spare change to be able to spend later.  Let’s say you think Lawler is the BPA but Cowser is next on your board and you think the gap between them is modest.   In that case, saving $1.7 mm to spend later makes sense.    If you think the margin between the two is significant, then you probably should take the BPA.   That’s how I see it.   
 

Right now Cowser isn’t playing like a no. 6 pick who got bumped up a spot.   He’s looking quite mediocre.  But judging that on 26 games isn’t smart.   

[scarey1999]

BPA consensus as of this minute is Druw Jones. Now that may change between now and draft day of course, but if it doesn’t and he remains at the top - and Elias doesn’t take him - it’s clear their strategy was not BPA.  

Elias will probably say player X (whomever they end up drafting) was at the top of their board and they don’t rely on industry sources or internet based consensus, but we’ll really never know. 

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, geschinger said:

It will be interesting to see what they do this year if we do end up as expected with a consensus BPA.

I can believe Lawlar was higher rated but by how much?  The gap in signing bonuses was huge - almost $2m more for Lawlar.  I think Lawlar would have had to have been much higher rated than Cowser on their board to be the better pick considering it would have come at the expense of the draft pool resources necessary to have taken a shot on Rhodes and Willems later on.

2M is basically 1/4 of a win.  If you think he’s the better player, you pay the extra.