Austin Hays 2022

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We have a 5 year track record of him always being hurt/banged up and struggling vs righties overall.

His defense is also not as good as people think.

There is a place for him On this team getting 300-400 at bats but that’s about it.  He’s not an everyday player And it’s possible he’s not a better 4th OFer than McKenna.

His career splits are .732 vs. RHP, .782 vs. LHP.   This year it’s .738/.703.   So, I’m not really seeing a huge split issue one way or the other.   

He may be a bit banged up from getting hit on the wrist or hand like 3-4 times in a couple of weeks, but I can’t say if that’s the cause of his slump or not.  All I can say is I don’t think getting hit on the hands is part of a “track record” of anything.   

In short, I’m disappointed in how Hays has hit the last 6 weeks but I’m not ready to say he’s gone from all-star candidate to fourth outfielder in that short a period.  We’ll see where he stands at the end of the year.   

 

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

In short, I’m disappointed in how Hays has hit the last 6 weeks but I’m not ready to say he’s gone from all-star candidate to fourth outfielder in that short a period.  We’ll see where he stands at the end of the year.   

 

Hays was an All Star candidate? Maybe for the O's pity pick, that's about it. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

His career splits are .732 vs. RHP, .782 vs. LHP.   This year it’s .738/.703.   So, I’m not really seeing a huge split issue one way or the other.   

He may be a bit banged up from getting hit on the wrist or hand like 3-4 times in a couple of weeks, but I can’t say if that’s the cause of his slump or not.  All I can say is I don’t think getting hit on the hands is part of a “track record” of anything.   

In short, I’m disappointed in how Hays has hit the last 6 weeks but I’m not ready to say he’s gone from all-star candidate to fourth outfielder in that short a period.  We’ll see where he stands at the end of the year.   

 

He was never a real AS candidate..outside of the one player per team rule.

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He was never a real AS candidate..outside of the one player per team rule.

 

He was 7th or 8th among OFers in late June when the voting was occuring.  I did not think he’d be selected, but he definitely was a candidate at the time.  I think his OPS+ was in the mid to high 130’s.   

Welk, it’s kind of beside the point now.  He played extremely well in the first half.  He’s played poorly in the third quarter.  We’ll see what happens in the fourth quarter.  I’m hoping he rebounds but don’t know if he will or not.  
 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He was 7th or 8th among OFers in late June when the voting was occuring.  I did not think he’d be selected, but he definitely was a candidate at the time.  I think his OPS+ was in the mid to high 130’s.   

Welk, it’s kind of beside the point now.  He played extremely well in the first half.  He’s played poorly in the third quarter.  We’ll see what happens in the fourth quarter.  I’m hoping he rebounds but don’t know if he will or not.  
 

Yea, he had like a 2ish WAR early on but that really doesn’t mean much.  That’s not who has been.  He’s a middling guy. Very replaceable.

Hes not an everyday player.  He is proving that this year. 
 

I know he’s your favorite player and all but you aren’t looking at him objectively.  The defense is average at best, he isn’t good enough offensively and he is frequently injured/hurt.

Hes still a guy who can be valuable in the right role but that role isn’t everyday player.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, he had like a 2ish WAR early on but that really doesn’t mean much.  That’s not who has been.  He’s a middling guy. Very replaceable.

Hes not an everyday player.  He is proving that this year. 
 

I know he’s your favorite player and all but you aren’t looking at him objectively.  The defense is average at best, he isn’t good enough offensively and he is frequently injured/hurt.

Hes still a guy who can be valuable in the right role but that role isn’t everyday player.

He is my favorite player (though Adley may be supplanting him) but I do think I’m pretty capable of being objective.   He was worth 3.1 rWAR last year.  Despite his recent slump, he’s on pace for 2.6 rWAR this year.  That’s an everyday player.   If he stagnates the rest of the year and ends up around 1.9 rWAR maybe I’ll feel that he’s not one.   We’ll see what happens.  
 

[btdart20]

Before the season, I thought the new wall would hurt him the most.  Early returns were proving me wrong, but maybe...  

Cherry-picking a bit, but I used his first 70 games as the cut off. 

First 70 games (4/8-6/27) - 53:19 K:BB (less the 3:1) ratio with a .834 OPS and .322 BABIP.  46.2% GB%, 32.1% FB%, 12.4% HR/FB%, 6.9% BRL%.  EV = 87.9.  CSW% was 26%.  First pitch strike% was 61.4%.  None of this looks really outlandish but are improvements over his career (which is normal for a guy maturing into his peak years).

Game 71 thru 8/17 - 34:5 K:BB ratio (nearly 7:1) with a .505 OPS and a .226 BABIP. 53.2% GB%, 28.7% FB% , 5.4% HR/FB%.  EV has been 87.1 in that time.  4.2% BRL%.  29.3% CSW%.  First pitch strike% has been 76.3% recently (63.8% league average).  Hard to get a good swing on a pitch when you're behind in the count.  I think that's what is driving his decline.  

Now why is the first pitch a strike more often significantly more often after the 1st 70 games?  Have pitchers changed their approach facing him?  Maybe there's an injury, but this seems to say there's something else (and not wall related either).  I'm having trouble drilling down to pitch types on the first pitch though.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Before the season, I thought the new wall would hurt him the most.  Early returns were proving me wrong, but maybe...  

Cherry-picking a bit, but I used his first 70 games as the cut off. 

First 70 games (4/8-6/27) - 53:19 K:BB (less the 3:1) ratio with a .834 OPS and .322 BABIP.  46.2% GB%, 32.1% FB%, 12.4% HR/FB%, 6.9% BRL%.  EV = 87.9.  CSW% was 26%.  First pitch strike% was 61.4%.  None of this looks really outlandish but are improvements over his career (which is normal for a guy maturing into his peak years).

Game 71 thru 8/17 - 34:5 K:BB ratio (nearly 7:1) with a .505 OPS and a .226 BABIP. 53.2% GB%, 28.7% FB% , 5.4% HR/FB%.  EV has been 87.1 in that time.  4.2% BRL%.  29.3% CSW%.  First pitch strike% has been 76.3% recently (63.8% league average).  Hard to get a good swing on a pitch when you're behind in the count.  I think that's what is driving his decline.  

Now why is the first pitch a strike more often significantly more often after the 1st 70 games?  Have pitchers changed their approach facing him?  Maybe there's an injury, but this seems to say there's something else (and not wall related either).  I'm having trouble drilling down to pitch types on the first pitch though.

Good info in this post.  For me, no matter how analytics are used to try to explain things, slumps are hard to explain.  They can be physical, they can be psychological, they can be luck, they can be adjustments by the pitchers, or any combination of some or all of those things and undoubtedly others I haven’t mentioned.   You just have to hope something happens that allows the player to bust out of it and go on a heater.   I do think it’s pretty obvious that Hays is pressing and has been less selective of late.  

[btdart20]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Good info in this post.  For me, no matter how analytics are used to try to explain things, slumps are hard to explain.  They can be physical, they can be psychological, they can be luck, they can be adjustments by the pitchers, or any combination of some or all of those things and undoubtedly others I haven’t mentioned.   You just have to hope something happens that allows the player to bust out of it and go on a heater.   I do think it’s pretty obvious that Hays is pressing and has been less selective of late.  

Agreed.  When humans are involved, it's tough to unwind a specific variable (or the magic combination of variables). Obviously, the team has more data points (especially regarding health factors) and maybe there is no way they have enough of the factors.  But without asking the questions or seeing the data, they/we are flying blind with only guesses toward a solution.  I know I'm preaching to the choir (especially with you and many on this board), but having data increases the odds of identifying the right solution instead of happenstance.  Maybe the wrong root cause is identified, and the problem isn't solved.  Then rinse/repeat identifying the root cause/solution development.  It could even be a bit of the chicken/egg where he believes he's found something and the confidence boost stepping up to the plate is the only real change...  Who knows?  But the data is as good a starting point as any...

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Before the season, I thought the new wall would hurt him the most.  Early returns were proving me wrong, but maybe...  

Cherry-picking a bit, but I used his first 70 games as the cut off. 

First 70 games (4/8-6/27) - 53:19 K:BB (less the 3:1) ratio with a .834 OPS and .322 BABIP.  46.2% GB%, 32.1% FB%, 12.4% HR/FB%, 6.9% BRL%.  EV = 87.9.  CSW% was 26%.  First pitch strike% was 61.4%.  None of this looks really outlandish but are improvements over his career (which is normal for a guy maturing into his peak years).

Game 71 thru 8/17 - 34:5 K:BB ratio (nearly 7:1) with a .505 OPS and a .226 BABIP. 53.2% GB%, 28.7% FB% , 5.4% HR/FB%.  EV has been 87.1 in that time.  4.2% BRL%.  29.3% CSW%.  First pitch strike% has been 76.3% recently (63.8% league average).  Hard to get a good swing on a pitch when you're behind in the count.  I think that's what is driving his decline.  

Now why is the first pitch a strike more often significantly more often after the 1st 70 games?  Have pitchers changed their approach facing him?  Maybe there's an injury, but this seems to say there's something else (and not wall related either).  I'm having trouble drilling down to pitch types on the first pitch though.

I wonder what his barrel rate is on first pitches. Maybe he's swinging but not barreling. 

[jdwilde1]

I have always been a fan of Hays, but boy was that some awful base running in the 9th inning.  First, how did he get such a poor read on Mateo’s hit?  Anyone but the absolute slowest guys in the league should be 1st to 3rd there.  Then, how does he get doubled-up on Mullins’s super slow blip to short?  He is not playing free and loose, that’s for sure.

Edited August 18, 2022 by jdwilde1

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, jdwilde1 said:

I have always been a fan of Hays, but boy was that some awful base running in the 9th inning.  First, how did he get such a poor read on Mateo’s hit?  Anyone but the absolute slowest guys in the league should be 1st to 3rd there.  Then, how does he get doubles up on Mullins’s super slow blip to short?  He is not playing free and loose, that’s for sure.

Got to dispute all of this before it becomes accepted Gospel.

He made the right play on the Mateo hit, and the Mullins line out was just bad luck.

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Got to dispute all of this before it becomes accepted Gospel.

He made the right play on the Mateo hit, and the Mullins line out was just bad luck.

It was caught chest high. They aren’t throwing to 3rd to turn two. Mateo was 40 feet off as well. It was some bad luck but a major leaguer has to anticipate everything. You don’t run there. Make them turn 2 if they do they do. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by eddie83

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

It was caught chest high. They aren’t throwing to 3rd to turn two. Mateo was 40 feet off as well. It was some bad luck but a major leaguer has to anticipate everything. You don’t run there. Make them turn 2 if they do they do. 

This team is aggressive on the basepaths.  It's served them very well, particularly lately.  Maybe not so much today.

But they're not going to hover two feet off the bag on their secondary leads to avoid what closed out the game.  Nor should they.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Pickles

[eddie83]

Just now, Pickles said:

This team is aggressive on the basepaths.  It's served them very well, particularly lately.  Maybe not so much today.

But they're not going to hover two off the bag on their secondary leads to avoid what closed out the game.  Nor should they.

You go back to the base on contact. There is nothing to gain by going. 
 

Now it’s not an easy read. That said there is one out. What does it accomplish to go?