Mayo, Cowser and Norby promoted to Bowie

[LookinUp]

I'm sure this team knows they have a lot more in Norby than he's shown in the last 100 PAs after getting hit in the head.

They see him daily and know he's a stud hitter. This time next year I'd bet he'll have either been traded for (likely) pitching or knocking on the door to Baltimore. 

[Sports Guy]

Let’s say you want to argue that any one  of these guys (or none of them) “should” be promoted right now. 

I wouldn’t agree with that argument but I can see the rationale behind it. 

My question is this…and this is especially true w/r/t Norby and Cowser, who were advertised as 2 advanced hit tool college players…what do you think will happen to them with this move?

In other words, say we gave them about another  100 at bats and promoted them to Bowie around August 1.  How would that change their long term outlook?  Do you think the move from single A to AA “too early” is going to halt them from being productive MLers?

Say Norby, for example, sucks in AA. Are we going to blame an “early promotion” on him sucking?  Or is it simply that he may have just not been good enough to begin with?

I’m just interested in how this goes and what the reaction will be.

Personally, I feel it’s time for Cowser.  I have no issues with either Norby or Mayo but would have been ok if they stayed in A ball longer. 
 

I did want Mayo and Norby to get to AA this year and get a real sampling of at bats but I would have figured we were a few weeks away from that.

It appears Elias is moving faster with guys now and that’s great to see.

 

[jabba72]

Norby promoted with a .736 OPS is a bit surprising to me. Not sure what the scouting report is on him. 

Mayo has really heated up the past week and Cowser has done well in June. 

Curious why Rhodes hasnt been promoted with them, but Norby has. Rhodes leads all three with a .874 OPS.

[LookinUp]

To your point, I think the timing for Mayo and Norby is subjective and it would be defensible to wait. That said, I suspect Elias et al have seen what they need to see. I don't think they'd be promoting them if they didn't think the production was equal to the hype.

John Rhodes would be interesting to hear about too, but no word. Tells me that they're looking at things beyond the stat line.

[UMDTerrapins]

I love seeing this. It’s not always all about statistics. And it reflects an understanding of the park effects at Aberdeen. Westburg wasn’t lighting it up statistically at Bowie, but was clearly ready, and his success at Norfolk since the promotion has reinforced that he was ready. I imagine it also must be nice to have a bit of a statistical reset for some of these guys when they move up a level after struggling. As a related take, it would be nice if they adjusted Ripken Stadium to be a little more balanced. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Norby promoted with a .736 OPS is a bit surprising to me. Not sure what the scouting report is on him. 

Mayo has really heated up the past week and Cowser has done well in June. 

Curious why Rhodes hasnt been promoted with them, but Norby has. Rhodes leads all three with a .874 OPS.

Good point on Rhodes.  Has to be something.  They aren’t hesitating on promoting guys right now, so I would think there is some legit reason.

[Mooreisbetter27]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Good point on Rhodes.  Has to be something.  They aren’t hesitating on promoting guys right now, so I would think there is some legit reason.

The only thing I can think is he was injured for a bit so maybe they're just slow rolling him.  I imagine he'll be up sometime this year.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

The only thing I can think is he was injured for a bit so maybe they're just slow rolling him.  I imagine he'll be up sometime this year.  

That was my thought too but it’s just speculation.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

The only thing I can think is he was injured for a bit so maybe they're just slow rolling him.  I imagine he'll be up sometime this year.  

He missed a month and has only been back for a week (and batted .191 for the week).  I’d look for him to be promoted in a month if he returns to hitting as he was before he got hurt.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

As pointed out, Bowie is getting a bit crowded. Anyone think Ortiz might head to Aberdeen, where he can get some plate appearances? 

[OriolesMagic83]

Maybe a guy like Graffanino will head down to Aberdeen.  24 years old w/ a career .629 OPS.  Seems like an organizational guy at this point.

[Three Run Homer]

I'd love to see Frederick Benscombe promoted to Aberdeen.  He's hitting close to .400 and he's only struck out 4 times in about 60 PA this season.   He's only 19 years old and hopefully he'll grow into some more power, but right now it seems like he's toying with pitchers in the FCL and low-A.  

[btdart20]

34 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Having Prieto makes the Norby move that much more of a headscratcher unless they plan to start playing Prieto at SS more. Ortiz has hit himself out of a priority play and will need to find PAs where he can.

 

Agreed on the Norby move.  There's not much pushing him out of Aberdeen and moving into less ABs in Bowie.  Seems odd.

AA numbers for Prieto and Ortiz are pretty similar though.  Last 100 ABs favors Prieto, especially with AVG (probably supported by the higher Babip).  K/BB rates need to improve for both.  But neither are doing much in the power department.  Prieto being a year younger and getting his first look at AA pitching clearly favors him.  Looks like Ortiz has been the primary SS since Gunnar/Westburg's promotion.  And Prieto has been mostly 3B.    

I hate to ask the question, but (given the Bowie OF) is this the chance for Mayo to get some OF action while allowing Prieto/Norby/Ortiz to get their ABs too?  The IF at least has some prospecty labels, but the OF only has Cowser and (to a lesser degree) Haskins.  I suspect they want Mayo's feet/mind in the dirt as long as possible.  But Mayo's sporting a .929 fielding% (.960 MLB league average in 2021).  Yes, there are other defensive measures, but this is a quick/dirty (and those range metrics are tougher for 3B).  A 3B butcher like Devers had a .950 in 2021.

But I'd like to think they some deciding factors to determine success/failure at 3B.  And that they have discussed the possibility and game plan for plan B.  Based on some spring training Q/A, Mayo has said the right things about playing where he's told.    I don't want to see another "Mountcastle is an SS" pie-in-the-sky thinking again.

[Gentile4]

Obviously, I don't have the data available, but could the Norby situation be similar to what we saw from Mountcastle early in the year and Adley in the opening two weeks of his promotion? Hitting the ball on the nose but right at a fielder.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

Obviously, I don't have the data available, but could the Norby situation be similar to what we saw from Mountcastle early in the year and Adley in the opening two weeks of his promotion? Hitting the ball on the nose but right at a fielder.

This is the type of thing you don’t know if you aren’t watching everyday but I agree that it could be the issue.  
 

This goes back to what Lookinup was saying that these things go deeper than stats.

And btw, let’s just say he’s not doing great..they still may want to promote him because he was an advanced college bat and they want him to sink or swim.  I agree with that thought process.

I wouldn’t have an issue if they started every college player that they deemed to be a advanced bat or arm in AA from The get go (or at least very quickly from signing).