The Wild Card Race

[SteveA]

We are in it, at least for now, might as well have a thread where we scoreboard watch, follow the other teams in the race, and so forth.

Coming into today:

WC#1 Toronto 58-45
WC#2 Seattle 54-47
WC#3 Tampa 53-47 --

Chaser#1 Cleveland 51-48 1.5
Chaser#2 Baltimore 51-49 2
Chaser#3 Boston 50-51 3.5
Chaser#4 Chicago 49-50 3.5

Worth noting that Cleveland is just a game back of the Twins in the ALC so if they passed the Twins, Minnesota would jump onto the list, they are currently 52-47.

The Rays beat the Indians today, so we can't gain on the Rays.   But if we win tonight we would pass Cleveland and elevate ourselves to the chaser#1 status.

That weekend series in Tampa in two weeks will be huge, not just for the standings implication.   There are no tiebreak games this year, so if the Orioles and Rays were to tie for the final wild card spot, the head to head record would decide who gets it.   And right now we are 8-8 vs Tampa.   So whoever wins that series would have the tiebreak, which would essentially be worth another game in the standins.   If we split the first two with the Rays Aug 12 & 13, that August 14 could have a huge impact for us.

We went 2-4 vs Seattle so we would have to beat them by a game to take a wild card spot over them.   We are 1-2 vs Cleveland so that series in Cleveland at the end of August is another big one.

Seattle, of course, made the biggest acquisition of the trade season last night by picking up Luis Castillo.   The Rays just boosted their anemic lineup by picking up David Peralta from Arizona.

[btdart20]

I think Seattle just made the key deal for them.  They just need to stay healthy.  Same deal for Toronto.

I think our biggest competition will be Tampa and Chicago.  Tampa is banged up.  But Chicago is getting Eloy back in the mix.  They are so inconsistent though…

I don’t think Cleveland or Boston have the horses.

[Dale]

The Orioles playoff chances are 4.8% according to Fansgraph, 9% according to 538.com, and 17% according to Baseball Reference.  I must admit I trust the Fansgraph and 538.com methodology more 

 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Dale said:

The Orioles playoff chances are 4.8% according to Fansgraph, 9% according to 538.com, and 17% according to Baseball Reference.  I must admit I trust the Fansgraph and 538.com methodology more 

 

Somewhere between 5-10% feels about right here as well.

Of course I kept doubting the 2012 team so I might not be the best judge.

 

[Frobby]

This time of year, I’m not ready to scoreboard watch just yet.  The way I look at it, the WC cutoff will probably be 10 games over .500 at least (86-76), maybe more like 16 games over .500 (90-72).   So, our job is to get 10+ games over .500 and then I’ll worry about where the other teams are.  We’re 2 games over .500 now, and that’s not going to suffice.  Keep winning.  

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This time of year, I’m not ready to scoreboard watch just yet.  The way I look at it, the WC cutoff will probably be 10 games over .500 at least (86-76), maybe more like 16 games over .500 (90-72).   So, our job is to get 10+ games over .500 and then I’ll worry about where the other teams are.  We’re 2 games over .500 now, and that’s not going to suffice.  Keep winning.  

You are not kidding anyone.    You look at the scores everyday.  So you are scoreboard watching no matter what you want to call it.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

You are not kidding anyone.    You look at the scores everyday.  So you are scoreboard watching no matter what you want to call it.

I check the scores everyday during baseball season.

Was I scoreboard watching last September?

Also checking the scores on a daily basis isn't scoreboard watching.

[ScGO's]

This is when baseball is fun. I watch the O's game, then check in on the Rays, Red Sox, White Sox, Jays, and Indians games.  Gives me a reason to follow more baseball.

Just realized I'll be listening to the game and not watching bc of a blackout on MLB.tv.  I live in WNC and apparently our zipcode is blacked out for the Cincinnati Reds game, its ridiculous.  But I'll be watching all those other teams.

[emmett16]

Where I live right now I can’t get Orioles games live so I have to record.  It’s absolutely brutal to try and avoid scoreboard for Os and other teams until I watch my recording.  Finally a good problem to have!  Keep winning!

[SteveA]

White Sox SS Tim Anderson suspended 3 games for making contact with an umpire.

[SteveA]

If the Red Sox don't win, or WInckowski isn't the winning pitcher, vs the Brewers today, Boston will become the 3rd team in MLB history to go a full calendar month without a win recorded by a starting pitcher.   The Pirates did it earlier this year, and the 1996 Tiers did it.

[SteveA]

Standings after the weekend:

#1 WC Toronto  57-45
#2 WC Seattle  55-48
#3 WC Tampa   54-48

Cleveland 52-49  1.5
Chicago   51-50  25
Baltimore 51-51   3
Boston   51-52   3.5

This week:
    Toronto 2@TB, 4@Minn
    Seattle  3@NYY, 3vsLAA
    Tampa  2vsTor,  4@Detroit
    Cleveland 3vsAriz, 4vsHou
    Chicago 3vsKC, 4@Tex
    Baltimore 3@Tex, 3vsPitt
    Boston 3@Hou, 4@KC

Edited August 1, 2022 by SteveA

[bpilktree]

5 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Standings after the weekend:

#1 WC Toronto  57-45
#2 WC Seattle  55-48
#3 WC Tampa   54-48

Cleveland 52-49  0.5
Chicago   51-50  1.5
Baltimore 51-51   2
Boston   51-52   2.5

This week:
    Toronto 2@TB, 4@Minn
    Seattle  3@NYY, 3vsLAA
    Tampa  2vsTor,  4@Detroit
    Cleveland 3vsAriz, 4vsHou
    Chicago 3vsKC, 4@Tex
    Baltimore 3@Tex, 3vsPitt
    Boston 3@Hou, 4@KC

You need to redo the games back.  Each team should be 1 more game behind

[SteveA]

4 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

You need to redo the games back.  Each team should be 1 more game behind

thanks

[waroriole]

8 hours ago, SteveA said:

If the Red Sox don't win, or WInckowski isn't the winning pitcher, vs the Brewers today, Boston will become the 3rd team in MLB history to go a full calendar month without a win recorded by a starting pitcher.   The Pirates did it earlier this year, and the 1996 Tiers did it.

Winckowski wins it!