What will the O's off season moves be?

[jamalshw]

Okay so this question really has two answers (actually, it has nearly infinite answers, but for me, I can approach two ways): (1) my dream scenario and (2) my more realistic though still probably too optimistic scenario. 

For my dream scenario which I already know is WAY too far fetched to happen, I would LOVE to see: 

1. Trade for Corbin Burnes giving up some combination of (but not all) Cowser, Hall, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby (basically any prospect is available in the right combination outside of Henderson and Rodriguez), along with an offensive piece for now like Santander or Mountcastle.

2. Sign Carlos Correa (or Trea Turner). 

3. Add a solid backup catcher 

4. Add another depth starter (a resign of Lyles would qualify) along with some more reliever inventory 

OF COURSE...the above would be too pricy in terms of money and prospects to be reasonable, but it's fun to dream....

As to the more realistic course: 

1. Sign Jose Abreu - I do really like this idea. I am FAR more comfortable with a 2 year deal, but would go to 3 if necessary to close this thing out provided the cost was right. I would, in that case, front load the deal a bit to mitigate the downside in year 3. 

2. Sign a top of the rotation arm. Of course, I would love deGrom or Verlander on a high $, short term deal, or Rodon, but this is supposed to be my more realistic course so I'll say Chris Bassitt. 

3. Sign a back up catcher - I am on the same page here with wildcard. Defense comes first here, but the preference is a guy that can at least hold his own against left-handed pitchers. Rutschman is going to be playing nearly everyday including some DH when he's not catching, but on the days he's not in the lineup, if you can coordinate it with the days the backup catcher is in the best position to succeed, that only helps you. 

4. Add an extra SP arm either as the #5 (maybe Lyles) or as a depth piece on a minor league deal with a May opt-out. 

5. Add an extra RP arm, not someone that will take Bautista's spot or even a setup spot, but a solid veteran for the middle of the pen.

 

With this course, you don't give up on Santander or any other offensive piece...yet. You can make a deal midseason if needed with someone like Santander with Cowser sliding in if that proves worthwhile. You can preserve the depth in case of injuries and go into the season with a roster something like: 

LINEUP:

1. CF- Cedric Mullins (L)

2. C- Adley Rutschman (S)

3. DH- Jose Abreu (R)

4. 3B- Gunnar Henderson (L)

5. RF- Anthony Santander (S)

6. 1B- Ryan Mountcastle (R)

7. 2B- Ramon Urias (R)

8. LF- Austin Hays (R)/Kyle Stowers (L)

9. SS- Jorge Mateo (R)

BENCH: Backup Catcher, Hays/Stowers, Vavra, McKenna - when Mateo is not playing, Henderson slides to SS and Urias to 3B with Vavra at 2B. This, of course, is temporary until Westburg is the everyday 2B and Urias slides into the utility role. At that point, if injury doesn't solve the issue, you make a decision on Hays, Stowers and Vavra based on how each is playing. 

ROTATION: Chris Bassitt, Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth (with Wells, whoever was signed in #4 above, Hall, Baumann, Zimmermann, etc as depth and Means coming back later in the year). 

BULLPEN: Felix Bautista, Dillon Tate, Cionel Perez, Tyler Wells, Bryan Baker...etc (Krehbiel, Vespi, Gillaspie, Akin, Baumann, etc). 

 

[Sports Guy]

So I feel Cowser could be an interesting player this offseason.

There were certainly some questions with him this year and he also had a lot of answers as well.  Definitely a mixed bag but more good than bad.

But it’s obvious from what Tony said last week that there are some scouting questions about him, at least whoever it is Tony is talking to.

The other side to that is if you do believe in him, he is a guy who you count on very soon, if not immediately.  
 

So, is he a trade piece this offseason?  Is he a CFer? If he’s a CFer and you believe he’s ready soon. It makes it that much easier to trade Mullins.

In an offseason full of key guys, I think Cowser is an underrated guy.

[turtlebowl]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So I feel Cowser could be an interesting player this offseason.

There were certainly some questions with him this year and he also had a lot of answers as well.  Definitely a mixed bag but more good than bad.

But it’s obvious from what Tony said last week that there are some scouting questions about him, at least whoever it is Tony is talking to.

The other side to that is if you do believe in him, he is a guy who you count on very soon, if not immediately.  
 

So, is he a trade piece this offseason?  Is he a CFer? If he’s a CFer and you believe he’s ready soon. It makes it that much easier to trade Mullins.

In an offseason full of key guys, I think Cowser is an underrated guy.

I would not hesitate to trade Mullins this winter assuming his value is still elevated.  I think he is settling in to be a nice player but as soon as he loses a step which could happen quickly he will become an average center fielder with not great on base skills.  That is also not even addressing the issue that teams really take advantage of his arm. 

If Cowser isn't ready I think you should have enough internal options to cover that position until he is.   

[Sports Guy]

45 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

I would not hesitate to trade Mullins this winter assuming his value is still elevated.  I think he is settling in to be a nice player but as soon as he loses a step which could happen quickly he will become an average center fielder with not great on base skills.  That is also not even addressing the issue that teams really take advantage of his arm. 

If Cowser isn't ready I think you should have enough internal options to cover that position until he is.   

I’m trading Mullins regardless of Cowser.

That said, I think Cowser can come into play as part of this decision making and, even if he has nothing to do with Mullins, I do think it makes a difference on what you feel his future is and if there is any question about it, that now could be the best time to move him. (Ala Austin Martin for example)

[kidrock]

21 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

This will be Abreu’s last payday. I doubt very much he’ll leave money on the table to maybe play for a winner. He’ll sign with whoever guarantees the most money. 

The guy has made 118.8m.  I think at that point, you choose the situation you think best fits you.  I don't think dollars and cents matter as much here.  Would be different if it was someone like Ryan Flaherty leaving the Orioles at age 30, only having earned 5.7m.

[gtown]

I think they like what they have and I expect the moves to be minor.

1. Sign Wade Miley or Rich Hill. Both have pitched here before and as LHP, they will like new dimensions in LF. Neither would put up high strikeouts, but since they will face a lot of RH hitters, they will not be hurt by banning the shift as much as RHP would. Either would be a 4th or 5th starter.

2. Re-sign Jordan Lyles. I expect them to do this to reward him for eating innings in '22.

3. Sign Joey Gallo. Trey Mancini will likely not return. He hates the new dimensions. Given Trey's performance in Houston, he may not have a lot of suitors though. Gallo would be the primary DH and could back up Mountcastle on occasion at 1B. He'd also be the 5th outfielder. Gallo stands to gain from banning the shift as much as anyone and he's only 29. 

4. Include Anthony Santander in a package for a solid 2-3 starter. I don't like this because I like Santander but the outfield is getting crowded and he has value. 

Barring injury, season starts with a rotation of Bradish, Kremer, Lyles, Miley/Hill, Voth with Grayson Rodriguez and then John Means joining later. 

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, gtown said:

I think they like what they have and I expect the moves to be minor.

1. Sign Wade Miley or Rich Hill. Both have pitched here before and as LHP, they will like new dimensions in LF. Neither would put up high strikeouts, but since they will face a lot of RH hitters, they will not be hurt by banning the shift as much as RHP would. Either would be a 4th or 5th starter.

2. Re-sign Jordan Lyles. I expect them to do this to reward him for eating innings in '22.

3. Sign Joey Gallo. Trey Mancini will likely not return. He hates the new dimensions. Given Trey's performance in Houston, he may not have a lot of suitors though. Gallo would be the primary DH and could back up Mountcastle on occasion at 1B. He'd also be the 5th outfielder. Gallo stands to gain from banning the shift as much as anyone and he's only 29. 

4. Include Anthony Santander in a package for a solid 2-3 starter. I don't like this because I like Santander but the outfield is getting crowded and he has value. 

Barring injury, season starts with a rotation of Bradish, Kremer, Lyles, Miley/Hill, Voth with Grayson Rodriguez and then John Means joining later. 

That sounds like a great way to waste a year of Adley and Gunnar.

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, jamalshw said:

Okay so this question really has two answers (actually, it has nearly infinite answers, but for me, I can approach two ways): (1) my dream scenario and (2) my more realistic though still probably too optimistic scenario. 

For my dream scenario which I already know is WAY too far fetched to happen, I would LOVE to see: 

1. Trade for Corbin Burnes giving up some combination of (but not all) Cowser, Hall, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby (basically any prospect is available in the right combination outside of Henderson and Rodriguez), along with an offensive piece for now like Santander or Mountcastle.

2. Sign Carlos Correa (or Trea Turner). 

3. Add a solid backup catcher 

4. Add another depth starter (a resign of Lyles would qualify) along with some more reliever inventory 

OF COURSE...the above would be too pricy in terms of money and prospects to be reasonable, but it's fun to dream....

As to the more realistic course: 

1. Sign Jose Abreu - I do really like this idea. I am FAR more comfortable with a 2 year deal, but would go to 3 if necessary to close this thing out provided the cost was right. I would, in that case, front load the deal a bit to mitigate the downside in year 3. 

2. Sign a top of the rotation arm. Of course, I would love deGrom or Verlander on a high $, short term deal, or Rodon, but this is supposed to be my more realistic course so I'll say Chris Bassitt. 

3. Sign a back up catcher - I am on the same page here with wildcard. Defense comes first here, but the preference is a guy that can at least hold his own against left-handed pitchers. Rutschman is going to be playing nearly everyday including some DH when he's not catching, but on the days he's not in the lineup, if you can coordinate it with the days the backup catcher is in the best position to succeed, that only helps you. 

4. Add an extra SP arm either as the #5 (maybe Lyles) or as a depth piece on a minor league deal with a May opt-out. 

5. Add an extra RP arm, not someone that will take Bautista's spot or even a setup spot, but a solid veteran for the middle of the pen.

 

With this course, you don't give up on Santander or any other offensive piece...yet. You can make a deal midseason if needed with someone like Santander with Cowser sliding in if that proves worthwhile. You can preserve the depth in case of injuries and go into the season with a roster something like: 

LINEUP:

1. CF- Cedric Mullins (L)

2. C- Adley Rutschman (S)

3. DH- Jose Abreu (R)

4. 3B- Gunnar Henderson (L)

5. RF- Anthony Santander (S)

6. 1B- Ryan Mountcastle (R)

7. 2B- Ramon Urias (R)

8. LF- Austin Hays (R)/Kyle Stowers (L)

9. SS- Jorge Mateo (R)

BENCH: Backup Catcher, Hays/Stowers, Vavra, McKenna - when Mateo is not playing, Henderson slides to SS and Urias to 3B with Vavra at 2B. This, of course, is temporary until Westburg is the everyday 2B and Urias slides into the utility role. At that point, if injury doesn't solve the issue, you make a decision on Hays, Stowers and Vavra based on how each is playing. 

ROTATION: Chris Bassitt, Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth (with Wells, whoever was signed in #4 above, Hall, Baumann, Zimmermann, etc as depth and Means coming back later in the year). 

BULLPEN: Felix Bautista, Dillon Tate, Cionel Perez, Tyler Wells, Bryan Baker...etc (Krehbiel, Vespi, Gillaspie, Akin, Baumann, etc). 

 

Something that happened today could impact this.  The Padres did not pick up Will Myers option.  So he is a free agent and the Padres may be looking for a 1B.    That could be Abreu.

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, turtlebowl said:

I would not hesitate to trade Mullins this winter assuming his value is still elevated.  I think he is settling in to be a nice player but as soon as he loses a step which could happen quickly he will become an average center fielder with not great on base skills.  That is also not even addressing the issue that teams really take advantage of his arm. 

If Cowser isn't ready I think you should have enough internal options to cover that position until he is.   

From what I have read Cowser does not have anywhere close to the range of Mullins.  The only O's guy in the majors or close to the majors that  has that range is McKenna.  Actually Mullins/McKenna are a good platoon pair.  

I don't think the O's trade Mullins without an equally as good CF to replace him.  Cowser will more a replacement for Hays when Cowser in ready IMO.

Edited November 7, 2022 by wildcard

[rm5678]

11 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:

A lot of talk, but they will do the same old Orioles crap and it will be something like Micahel Wacha, and bringing back Lyles and Mancini. Then fans will jump through hoops to defend Elias. 

As much as I love Trey Mancini, I'm pretty sure he will not be coming back to the O's.

[rm5678]

8 hours ago, turtlebowl said:

I would not hesitate to trade Mullins this winter assuming his value is still elevated.  I think he is settling in to be a nice player but as soon as he loses a step which could happen quickly he will become an average center fielder with not great on base skills.  That is also not even addressing the issue that teams really take advantage of his arm. 

If Cowser isn't ready I think you should have enough internal options to cover that position until he is.   

Since the Marlins tend to love ex-Oriole players, we could trade Mullins (and someone else) for Pablo Lopez.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, wildcard said:

From what I have read Cowser does not have anywhere close to the range of Mullins.  The only O's guy in the majors or close to the majors that  has that range is McKenna.  

Where have you read in any detail about Cowser’s range?   I do not expect his range to be as good as Mullins.   “Anywhere close?”   I don’t know.  How does it compare to McKenna’s?   Again, I don’t know.   Maybe Tony will have some insights when he posts his write up on Cowser next week.  

[wildcard]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where have you read in any detail about Cowser’s range?   I do not expect his range to be as good as Mullins.   “Anywhere close?”   I don’t know.  How does it compare to McKenna’s?   Again, I don’t know.   Maybe Tony will have some insights when he posts his write up on Cowser next week.  

I have seen Mullins speed rated at 60.   MLB Pipeline says Cowser is 55.  That is equal to Hays but not close to Mullins.  I have seen McKenna rated at 60. 

Range Factor (RF) may be imperfect but its the best I can find for minor leaguers.   Cowser was rated 2.02 as a CF in 2022.  He has a career RF on 1.95 in CF.

Mullins CF RF in 2022 was 2.62.   His career CF RF is 2.76.   Mullins RF is far and away better than Cowser or I can say Not Close.   All these RF numbers are  from Baseball Reference.

Edited November 8, 2022 by wildcard

[Tony-OH]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where have you read in any detail about Cowser’s range?   I do not expect his range to be as good as Mullins.   “Anywhere close?”   I don’t know.  How does it compare to McKenna’s?   Again, I don’t know.   Maybe Tony will have some insights when he posts his write up on Cowser next week.  

Cowser can play CF now, but he doesn't have the quickness and overall footspeed that you would want out there ideally. He's going to be better in the corner and while he has a RF arm, he might be a really good fit for LF in Camden Yards. In fact, I'd like to see him get some experience there next year at Norfolk.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have seen Mullins speed rated at 60.   MLB Pipeline says Cowser is 55.  That is equal to Hays but not close to Mullins.  I have seen McKenna rated at 60. 

Range Factor (RF) may be imperfect but its the best I can find for minor leaguers.   Cowser was rated 2.02 as a CF in 2022.  He has a career RF on 1.95 in CF.

Mullins CF RF in 2022 was 2.62.   His career CF RF is 2.76.   Mullins RF is far and away better than Cowser or I can say Not Close.   All these RF numbers are  from Baseball Reference.

I don’t trust the MiL range factor numbers as a measure of anything.  It’s too dependent on the nature of the pitching staff and other extraneous factors.  I do agree Mullins is faster than Cowser, but as we know, speed is only one component of range, along with jump, route to the ball, etc.   So, I’ll wait to see if Tony has any evaluations here.

In any event, though, I do agree with you that I doubt we’d trade Mullins unless we had a very solid defensive replacement.  I don’t see us setting the team up for a major defensive downgrade in CF.

PS — I see Tony has weighed in now.   I don’t think Cowser is going to be our everyday CF.

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by Frobby