Trade Bait 2023

[HelenaEngineer]

18 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Ortiz, so I don’t want to trash him. I actually like rooting for all the players on our team, and not just the home grown ones. 
 

It’s only 30 PA, but the 9 SO 0BB is concerning. 
 

I just don’t think for this year that he gives us a better chance to win over Mateo, Urias, and Frazier. But it’s a 162 game season, Ortiz will get chances. 

Maybe not for Ortiz giving a better chance - but Mateo is hitting .117 vs RHP in 94 ABs dating back to May 1. He has a .162 OBP, a .160 slugging percentage and 5 BBs and 40Ks over those 99 PAs. You have to be projecting a significant rebound for Mateo to think he would give a better chance to win than any of the other alternatives the Orioles have at SS. 

Even with Ortiz's struggles in very limited playing time, his average over his 33 PAs is more than 100 points higher than what Mateo has done vs RHP in triple the at bats, and their defensive capabilities seem to be somewhat comparable. Frazier is hitting .155 in June, although with a couple of HRs, at least his slugging percentage at .310 cracks the 300 mark.

Mateo and Frazier may give a better chance to win, but that is only if their performance rebounds strongly from recent trends. If you expect that, I very much hope you are right, but especially in the case of Mateo, I think it looks questionable. He would need to double his production from the last two months, at least against RHP, to match his performance from 2022 where he was 18th of 20 qualifying shortstops in OPS, albeit good enough defensively to hold on to his spot. He has been OK against lefties overall.

[Sports Guy]

Damn, Angels traded for Eduardo Escobar. They need left side of the IF help. Was hoping we would move Mateo to them.

[ScGO's]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Damn, Angels traded for Eduardo Escobar. They need left side of the IF help. Was hoping we would move Mateo to them.

Who needs a SS right now?

[Aristotelian]

40 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Who needs a SS right now?

Anyone who needs a SS probably wants one who can hit.

[Matt Bennett]

Escobar has a fairly similar profile to Urias, granted Urias is 

1. younger

2. cheaper

3. more controllable

4. better on defense

Looks like the 2 pitchers the Angels sent back slotted in to the Mets top 30 prospect list at #11 and #18. At the beginning of the season, the Mets had the 11th best farm system according to the MLB prospect analyst team. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Matt Bennett
misspelling

[btdart20]

8 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Who needs a SS right now?

LAD, BOS, MIA, MIL, and CLE all have a lower rWAR at the SS position than the O’s.  

SEA, LAD, MIL, and LAA could have interest  in a guy who can play 2B too.

MIA, PHI, CHC, CHW, LAA, MIL, ARI, SEA, STL, LAD may have interest in a 3B upgrade.

[HelenaEngineer]

36 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

LAD, BOS, MIA, MIL, and CLE all have a lower rWAR at the SS position than the O’s.  

SEA, LAD, MIL, and LAA could have interest  in a guy who can play 2B too.

MIA, PHI, CHC, CHW, LAA, MIL, ARI, SEA, STL, LAD may have interest in a 3B upgrade.

I don't know if you can get rWAR by month, but when you have Mateo slugging .667 in April and below .200 since then, I would suspect few if any of those teams with a lower rWAR than the Orioles at SS have been lower since May 1. You also have Henderson who has appeared at SS in 5 games in June and slugged .709, so that and Mateo's April almost certainly cover any positive WAR at SS for the Orioles. I would not be surprised if the Orioles rank 30th in SS WAR dating to May 1.

Until Mateo shows he can at least hit at a Belanger like level vs RHP, I don't think he has any trade value other than as a utility, spot starter vs lefties,   PR type.

[forphase1]

10 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Who needs a SS right now?

We do! 

[Frobby]

On 6/24/2023 at 6:59 AM, HelenaEngineer said:

I don't know if you can get rWAR by month, but when you have Mateo slugging .667 in April and below .200 since then, I would suspect few if any of those teams with a lower rWAR than the Orioles at SS have been lower since May 1. You also have Henderson who has appeared at SS in 5 games in June and slugged .709, so that and Mateo's April almost certainly cover any positive WAR at SS for the Orioles. I would not be surprised if the Orioles rank 30th in SS WAR dating to May 1

I haven’t been tracking it by month, but I’ve been tracking rWAR and fWAR every 18 games.   After 36 games (May 9, about 8 games into Mateo’s slump) he was at 1.5 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR.   Now he’s at 1.0 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR.  So, he’s been worth -0.5 rWAR, -0.7 fWAR since May 10.  You can be sure that it’s worse than that since May 1, given that Mateo hit .148/.179/.185 during that May 1-9 stretch.  

[wildcard]

Mateo has a 771 OPS vs lefties.   I see him playing vs lefties, pinch running and defensive replacement at a minimum.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mateo has a 771 OPS vs lefties.   I see him playing vs lefties, pinch running and defensive replacement at a minimum.

What is his OPS vs lefties since May 1?  I realize you don’t know the answer, but the Orioles do.  I doubt it’s anything close to .771, given the general decline in his numbers.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What is his OPS vs lefties since May 1?  I realize you don’t know the answer, but the Orioles do.  I doubt it’s anything close to .771, given the general decline in his numbers.

Considering that his OPS vs righties has dropped like a rock and his OPS vs lefties is still pretty high I don't know about that.

[Conway12]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What is his OPS vs lefties since May 1?  I realize you don’t know the answer, but the Orioles do.  I doubt it’s anything close to .771, given the general decline in his numbers.

His OPS vs. LHP since May 1st is .536. 

Also, since he came out of the game for a hip injury on 4/19 his overall OPS is .492. Don't want to blame that since he didn't go on the IL and no one has mentioned it yet, thought it was semi-interesting considering they had Hays play all of last year with a beat up wrist. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Conway12 said:

His OPS vs. LHP since May 1st is .536. 

Where were you able to find this?   I was going to estimate it in the low-500’s just based on his general R/L discrepancy and how he’s done overall since May 1.   

Anyway, I don’t think the team wouid go out of its way to put Mateo in the lineup vs. LHP based on that information, though I guess if he’s still going to start sometimes, it makes more sense to do it vs. a LHP instead of a RHP.  I’m almost afraid to ask how bad he’s been against RHP since May 1.  I’d guess right around .300?
 

Edited June 26, 2023 by Frobby

[Conway12]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where were you able to find this?   I was going to estimate it in the low-500’s just based on his general R/L discrepancy and how he’s done overall since May 1.   

Anyway, I don’t think the team wouid ho out of its way to put Mateo in the lineup vs. LHP based on that information, though I guess if he’s still going to start sometimes, it makes more sense to do it vs. a LHP instead of a RHP.  I’m almost afraid to ask how bad he’s been against RHP since May 1.  I’d guess right around .300?
 

The Fangraphs Splits Tool is a little clunky, but once you figure out how to use it, it is great for stuff like this. I agree with you as well. Nothing about Mateo since about late-April would indicate to me that he needs to hit against anyone.  

And you are right on it. Since May 1st his OPS against RHP is, not fit for human consumption, at .329.