Winter 2023 40-Man Additions

[luismatos4prez]

I’ll be using this thread to predict the 40-man roster adds next winter. Last year, I enjoyed tracking the rise and fall of guys and eventually predicted the adds correctly. I like checking in every month or so and seeing how things have changed.

Below is where I see things currently with eligible guys. Tony’s ranking in parentheses. The Long Shot category includes other eligible guys that made Tony’s Top 75 or that I find a little interesting.

Locks:
1. Westburg(6)
2. Kjerstad(10)

Bubble:
3. Haskin(28)
4. Handley(33)

Unlikely:
5. Pinto(35)
6. B. Young(37)

Long Shot:
De Los Santos(34), Strowd(39), Rangel(40), Moore(41), R. Watson (52), Feliz(53), Peek(56), Cullen(57), Gillispie(62), Hoffman(63), L. Valdez(65), Bellony(66), DeLeon(68), Servideo(70), Brnovich(74), A. Hall, Fontana, Stallings, Deson

Any disagreements or predictions?

[luismatos4prez]

Other Thoughts:
- Cowser and Norby aren’t eligible next year but hopefully will be in Camden Yards by the end of this season if they rake. I expect Westburg won’t have to wait till next winter either.

- Brandon Young and Kyle Brnovich could be interesting post-TJ picks for a team (like Tyler Wells), we’ll see if they pitch this year or not.

- Of the long shots, I like Ryan Watson and Xavier Moore’s chances the best.

- If I had to pick today, I’d protect Westburg, Kjerstad, and Haskin. 

- Here’s last year’s thread. Some of the midseason hot takes in there seem ridiculous now, mine included. 
 

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Kyle Brnovich could be interesting post-TJ picks

Brnovich was my first though when reading your OP.  Then you covered it in the second one.  

Haskin will be interesting to watch this season.  I imagine the decision on him will be some combo of how other CF prospects progress with how he does.  You're much more attuned with these guys than I am, but I tend to think he's more 'unlikely' than 'on the bubble' at the moment.

[luismatos4prez]

May Update

Locks:
1. Jordan Westburg - [career .283/.365/.515 hitter in 504 AAA PAs]
2. Heston Kjerstad - [.284/.392/.612 in AA]

On the Bubble:
3. Hudson Haskin - [hot start pre-injury: .391/.500/.652 in 56 PA in AAA, but with a .615 BABIP and 32.1% K]
4. Maverick Handley - [.222/.407/.267 in 59 PAs in AAA]
5. Jean Pinto - [2.50 ERA, 2.91 FIP in 18 IP in A+]

Others notes on eligible guys:
- I’m leaving Young, Brnovich, and Peek off until they pitch in games again.
- Easton Lucas has a 1.59 ERA, 0.67 FIP, in just 5.2 IP in AA.
- Xavier Moore has 8K in 3.2 IP in AA, but also has a 14.73 ERA
- I can’t tell if Stiven Acevedo is eligible, but he’s had a decent start in Delmarva and is in Tony’s Top 30. Can’t imagine him being protected or drafted though, even if eligible.

If I had to pick today, I'd protect all 5, but the 3 bubble guys have more to prove.

[luismatos4prez]

June Update

Locks:

1. Jordan Westburg

2. Heston Kjerstad - Nothing needs to be said about these two. 

 

On the Bubble:

3. Hudson Haskin - You can't make the club from the tub. He needs to get back and hit.

4. Jean Pinto - 2.58 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 13.85 K/9 in A+, he needs to be promoted.

5. Maverick Handley - Same as Haskin, .232/.398/.261 won't get him protected

 

Other notes on eligible guys:

- Easton Lucas has a 1.69 ERA, 2.99 FIP in 16 IP in Bowie.

- Garrett Stallings has a 3.89 FIP, only 1.63 BB/9 in 38.2 IP in Bowie.

- Xavier Moore has 18 Ks in only 10 IP but also 10 BBs in AA.

 

We'll see how it plays out with Haskin, Pinto, and Handley. Anyone have strong feelings at this point?

[Frobby]

I think if Pinto makes it to AA and does well there, he will be protected. 

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t think Pinto gets claimed. He’s not the type of arm that gets protected. Handley is a dime a dozen catcher.  Haskin is a CF. We can’t mess around with that. He’s a lock. 
 

So Kjerstad, Westburg, and Haskin, all get protected. 
 

40 man protection might factor into who we trade. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I think Handley gets protected.  He's regarded as good defensively.  I'm sure Elias likes a good defensive backup catcher he can pay the minimum.  OBP is very good too.  Yeah, I know the SLG. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

15 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think Handley gets protected.  He's regarded as good defensively.  I'm sure Elias likes a good defensive backup catcher he can pay the minimum.  OBP is very good too.  Yeah, I know the SLG. 

Elias also likes control. If he can get another veteran that can be on and off the 40 man with ease and stay in the system like Bemboom, he'll take it. McCann had 2 years left on his deal, so he is still with the Orioles next season unless something weird happens.

[CharmCityHokie]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think Handley gets protected.  He's regarded as good defensively.  I'm sure Elias likes a good defensive backup catcher he can pay the minimum.  OBP is very good too.  Yeah, I know the SLG. 

He was available last R5 draft and wasn't protected, and he had a better slash line and the same defensive reputation. I doubt he gets a spot with McCann still under contract next year. Just my opinion though

[OriolesMagic83]

21 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

He was available last R5 draft and wasn't protected, and he had a better slash line and the same defensive reputation. I doubt he gets a spot with McCann still under contract next year. Just my opinion though

I wonder if the O's are going to try and trade McCann.  The Mets picked up the vast majority of his contract, but the O's are paying him a little over $1 million this year and a little over $4 million in 2024.  This current ownership has been shown to make decisions on purely financial basis over relatively small in mlb terms amounts.

[Frobby]

Handley must be hurt.  He didn’t play the first week of May, and now he hasn’t played in almost 2 weeks.  He’s had almost a complete power outage this year.  

I doubt he will be protected, but let’s see how he does when he returns from his injury.  He’s only played 22 games this season so far.
 

[wildcard]

Cowser should be up in the next week or so.    Westburg should be up in late July after Frazier is traded.

Kjerstad will be protected.  Pinto has  a chance.

Haskin probably gets moved.   Left fielder with a weak arm that does not fit.

I don't think Elias thinks highly of Handley.  Probably not protected.

McCann will be tough to trade.  4M for a backup catcher is high.

 

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by wildcard

[luismatos4prez]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias thinks highly of Handley.  Probably not protected.

Reading the tea leaves, I don't think he likes Haskin or Pinto much either. 

Rom got moved to Bowie after 67 strong innings in Aberdeen at age 21. Pinto is still in Aberdeen at age 22 after 134 strong innings.

IIRC, Haskin didn't receive a ML ST invite despite a good statline last year at Bowie.

Haskin and Handley need to get healthy and rake to get added. Pinto needs 50+ IP with a sub 4 FIP at Bowie to get added.

[Aristotelian]

On 5/1/2023 at 8:35 AM, luismatos4prez said:

Others notes on eligible guys:
- I’m leaving Young, Brnovich, and Peek off until they pitch in games again.
- Easton Lucas has a 1.59 ERA, 0.67 FIP, in just 5.2 IP in AA.
- Xavier Moore has 8K in 3.2 IP in AA, but also has a 14.73 ERA
- I can’t tell if Stiven Acevedo is eligible, but he’s had a decent start in Delmarva and is in Tony’s Top 30. Can’t imagine him being protected or drafted though, even if eligible.

If I had to pick today, I'd protect all 5, but the 3 bubble guys have more to prove.

I just noticed Lucas is now at 17 IP, still sporting the 1.59 ERA, and just struck out the side on a day every other Baysox pitcher got absolutely hammered. 11.8 K/9 with 2.3 BB/99. Who doesn't want a lefty arm with those numbers?