Gunnar Henderson 2023

[banks703]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I love it when people say there is zero chance that someone will do something because at 19, they need to improve.  It’s such a moronic thing to say.

Basically everyone could have made that play.  It was done with perfection but these are the best players in the world. The things they can do are miraculous. 
 

 

Incorrect. Holliday doesn’t have the arm strength to make that throw.

What is moronic is arguing that a guy (a kid even) has the skill set to do something that others who, quite literally write about these players for a living or have worked in coaching and/or scouting.

 

 

[banks703]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I am glad you posted this, and that @Can_of_cornposted it in the Holliday thread on the minor league board.  It does throw cold water on the idea that Holliday is going to waltz in here next April and supplant Gunnar at SS.

However, let’s remember that Holliday is only 19, in his first full season of minor league ball.   Gunnar was quite erratic defensively in his first full year, though a year older and having had prior instruction in the Covid-year Alt Site workouts.  He then improved by leaps and bounds in his second full year at age 21.   So, we could see similar improvement from Holliday.   I’m not making any predictions about that, just saying it’s easily within the realm of possibility.   

All true. I’ve stated many times that Holliday will improve. He works hard and he has pedigree. He just doesn’t have the profile of a good defensive major league shortstop. I describe him as “he won’t kill you there but he’s also probably not your best defensive option”

The O’s have prioritized defense up the middle. If Holliday and Gunnar are close on an offensive profile but Gunnar is clearly the better defender, they aren’t moving Gunnar. Not happening.

Gunnar at 19 was light years ahead of where Holliday is right now. Yes, there were issues with errors but his physical profile for SS is superior to Holliday’s. Holliday will be the better pure hitter, I have zero doubts of that but Gunnar is only 22, just 2 1/2 years old than Holliday. He is also going to continue to improve for quite a while before he peaks. 

[Just Regular]

While we are in Arizona this weekend, how viable is this looking?     Emerging teams and feel good playoff vibes - late September is a time some extensions can occur.

Corbin Carroll of
8 years/$111M (2023-30), plus 2031 option

• 8 years/$111M (2023-30), plus 2031 club option
  • signed extension with Arizona 3/11/23
  • $5M signing bonus, paid 5/15/23
  • 23:$1M, 24:$3M, 25:$5M, 26:$10M, 27:$12M, 28:$14M, 29:$28M, 30:$28M, 31:$28M club option ($5M buyout)

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I am glad you posted this, and that @Can_of_cornposted it in the Holliday thread on the minor league board.  It does throw cold water on the idea that Holliday is going to waltz in here next April and supplant Gunnar at SS.

However, let’s remember that Holliday is only 19, in his first full season of minor league ball.   Gunnar was quite erratic defensively in his first full year, though a year older and having had prior instruction in the Covid-year Alt Site workouts.  He then improved by leaps and bounds in his second full year at age 21.   So, we could see similar improvement from Holliday.   I’m not making any predictions about that, just saying it’s easily within the realm of possibility.   

Look at Witt.

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Basically everyone?   No, I don’t think so.  There’s a lot of guys who don’t have Gunnar’s speed or his arm.   

I’d say even Gunnar probably couldn’t execute that play more than one time out of 10.   
 

Yea, everyone..especially SS. They are the best athletes on the field. Mateo is another guy who easily could make that play.

It was a great play. Not taking anything away from it.  It’s just foolish to act as if it’s something that others can’t do. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Look at Witt.

FFS look at Gunnar. A few years ago a lot of scouts didn’t think he could stick at SS.  Tony was a guy that doubted it as well.

People act like these young kids can’t or won’t get better. It’s so stupid. 

[Sports Guy]

I mean, it wasn’t like Gunnar made some amazing throw. He was a little flat footed, so that’s tough but he 2 or 3 hopped it. It was perfectly placed.

The throw few guys can make is the one Elly threw Carroll(I believe it was Carroll) out on earlier in the week where he threw it 100MPH from shallow CF and got him out at the plate. That is something most can’t do.

[banks703]

41 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Look at Witt.

Witt greatly improved from last year. Absolutely. But he has arm strength and speed that are both far superior to Holliday. 

[banks703]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

FFS look at Gunnar. A few years ago a lot of scouts didn’t think he could stick at SS.  Tony was a guy that doubted it as well.

People act like these young kids can’t or won’t get better. It’s so stupid. 

This is only half true. You're conveniently leaving out the question of whether Gunnar could stick at short was never because of his physical ability to play there. It is and has always been:

1. Will he outgrow the position?

A valid concern given that at just 22 and a month old, he's already 220ish lbs. If he matures to a 240lb man at 26, he probably doesn't move as well and thus his elite range drastically declines. 

2. Could he cut down on errant throws?

Also a valid concern but as we've seen with him this year (while still bouncing between SS and 3B) he has in fact become more consistent with his throws.

Witt is a good example of a player who was thought of, as recently as last year, as an elite prospect who may not stick at SS but as has been mentioned, he's greatly improved there from last year. The thing with Witt though, when looking at Holliday is that Witt has the arm strength and speed that Holliday does not have. There is no amount of coaching or reps that are going to improve the below average arm strength for a ML SS. That's just a fact. In three years Holliday's arm strength has improved exactly 1mph. He's not Cedric Mullins out there but he's sure as shit not Gunnar or even Witt in terms of arm strength. Looking at Witt compared to Gunnar, Witt has had the luxury of not bouncing between positions, which, in my opinion, makes Gunnar's development all the more impressive. He's done it while playing half his games at third and half at short. 

The O's took Holliday for his bat. They're developing him as a SS because why wouldn't they? If Gunnar does outgrow SS then they have another elite hitter that can passably play the position. He's just not going to be elite defensively. If Gunnar keeps himself lean enough to maintain his mobility and speed, and does in fact stick at SS (and they don't insert Ortiz there next year) they aren't going to move Gunnar for a weaker defender.

they. are. not. going. to. play. a. weaker. defender. at. a. premium. defensive. position. 

Edited September 2, 2023 by banks703

[banks703]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I am glad you posted this, and that @Can_of_cornposted it in the Holliday thread on the minor league board.  It does throw cold water on the idea that Holliday is going to waltz in here next April and supplant Gunnar at SS.

However, let’s remember that Holliday is only 19, in his first full season of minor league ball.   Gunnar was quite erratic defensively in his first full year, though a year older and having had prior instruction in the Covid-year Alt Site workouts.  He then improved by leaps and bounds in his second full year at age 21.   So, we could see similar improvement from Holliday.   I’m not making any predictions about that, just saying it’s easily within the realm of possibility.   

One thing that I think also has to be considered when looking at Holliday and comparing him to Gunnar - Yes, he's going to be just 20 years old in three months. Yes, he's in his first full season of pro ball... but looking at other players who among them (not just with the O's) but who among the players in all of Major League and Minor League ball, right now, have had access to the coaching that Jackson Holliday has had his entire life? This piece gets overlooked a lot. Yes, he's only 19 but he's literally had access to Major League coaching his entire life. Gunnar is from a small town in Alabama and attended a small private school that has a current student count of 390 students. By some measurement (I have no idea how to measure it) Holliday's development should be further along right now than Gunnar's was at their same age. It would be less impressive of Holliday if it wasn't. 

I certainly hope that Holliday's development does lead him to play SS. It's only a good thing for the O's if that happens. I am not rooting against it. I want the O's to field the best team possible and if that happens to be Gunnar at 3B and Holliday at SS then so be it. I just don't see a physical profile that will project as a better defensive player than what Gunnar has shown to be in his first full major league season. At 22, Gunnar is going to get better also. He's just 2 1/2 years older than Holliday, which is less of an age difference than Gunnar and Adley. Holliday will get better, absolutely. But so will Gunnar. 

[Three Run Homer]

One of my favorite O's memories was being at the game in 2012 when Machado faked the throw to first and then caught the Tampa runner behind him at 3B.  

That play by Gunnar last night felt like the same kind of signature play.   Definitely will be on his career highlight reel.  

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, banks703 said:

This is only half true. You're conveniently leaving out the question of whether Gunnar could stick at short was never because of his physical ability to play there. It is and has always been:

1. Will he outgrow the position?

A valid concern given that at just 22 and a month old, he's already 220ish lbs. If he matures to a 240lb man at 26, he probably doesn't move as well and thus his elite range drastically declines. 

2. Could he cut down on errant throws?

Also a valid concern but as we've seen with him this year (while still bouncing between SS and 3B) he has in fact become more consistent with his throws.

Witt is a good example of a player who was thought of, as recently as last year, as an elite prospect who may not stick at SS but as has been mentioned, he's greatly improved there from last year. The thing with Witt though, when looking at Holliday is that Witt has the arm strength and speed that Holliday does not have. There is no amount of coaching or reps that are going to improve the below average arm strength for a ML SS. That's just a fact. In three years Holliday's arm strength has improved exactly 1mph. He's not Cedric Mullins out there but he's sure as shit not Gunnar or even Witt in terms of arm strength. Looking at Witt compared to Gunnar, Witt has had the luxury of not bouncing between positions, which, in my opinion, makes Gunnar's development all the more impressive. He's done it while playing half his games at third and half at short. 

The O's took Holliday for his bat. They're developing him as a SS because why wouldn't they? If Gunnar does outgrow SS then they have another elite hitter that can passably play the position. He's just not going to be elite defensively. If Gunnar keeps himself lean enough to maintain his mobility and speed, and does in fact stick at SS (and they don't insert Ortiz there next year) they aren't going to move Gunnar for a weaker defender.

they. are. not. going. to. play. a. weaker. defender. at. a. premium. defensive. position. 

The Os took Holliday because they, as in Mike Elias ( I know, you know more than him and so does someone who writes for FG) believes he’s a SS at the Ml level.

That was his stated reason for taking him..ie, the tie breaker.

Now, has/will Gunnar develop at a level that is so good that the team feels they can’t move him off of SS?  I don’t know, we will see. We will see if Gunnar outgrows the position.

Lots to be seen. What I do know is it is absolutely stupid to act as if the book is already written and ignore what so many have said about his skill set as a SS since the day he was drafted, before and after it.

You keep saying the same stuff. No offense but your opinion on his skills don’t mean anything to me. I just don’t value it. I don’t even value my own. I haven’t seen him enough to make an informed opinion on it.

But I do value the opinions of so many that have written about it. I value the opinion of Elias and the Os organization. So I’m not closing the book on him at SS and I’m not going to act like some throw that took multiple hops from shallow LF is some throw that can’t be made.  
 

 

[Aristotelian]

Elias has also he said he expects Ortiz to be an everyday SS, preferably for the Orioles. They can't all be the SS. Whatever happens, we can say Gunnar plays SS at a high level, so in my mind the job is his until he plays himself off it, or one of the others play their way in to the position. 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Elias has also he said he expects Ortiz to be an everyday SS, preferably for the Orioles. They can't all be the SS. Whatever happens, we can say Gunnar plays SS at a high level, so in my mind the job is his until he plays himself off it, or one of the others play their way in to the position. 

Of course he said that. That’s keeping a players value as high as possible. Saying that is completely different than what he was saying about Holliday and why he drafted him. 

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course he said that. That’s keeping a players value as high as possible. Saying that is completely different than what he was saying about Holliday and why he drafted him. 

I can see a world in which our best group is Ortiz SS, Gunnar 3B, and Holliday 2B. Of course I can see one in which Holliday is the SS. I don't think either is locked in. I agree with you that the book is not "already written" for Gunnar SS. Holliday may even still be the favorite. But I can imagine future scenarios where any of the three is SS for a long time.