I was worried about our starting rotation

[interloper]

5 hours ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

Huh?  What did you just say?  Makes no sense. Maybe English is not your first language 

In what way was that hard to understand. He's saying it might not be wise to have Grayson throw more than 150 innings this year, but he doesn't doubt that Grayson could do that. 

Edited May 16, 2023 by interloper

[Chelsea_Phil]

23 minutes ago, interloper said:

In what way was that hard to understand. He's saying it might not be wise to have Grayson throw more than 150 innings this year, but he doesn't doubt that Grayson could do that. 

 You are a better man than I am (at interpreting such confusing wording), Gunga Din

Edited May 16, 2023 by Chelsea_Phil

[Hallas]

I was worried about our starting rotation too.

 

I still am. 

[Spy Fox]

Was looking for a rotation thread to bump and found this one. 

None of them are stars, but I think the continued competence of Wells/Kremer/Bradish has been a really positive development this year. All three showed potential as rotation pieces last year, but there was no guarantee that any of them could stick. So far, they're each sticking. 

Wells has been solid all year and Kremer/Bradish have both shaken off rough Aprils to be solid pitchers in the months since. The team is now 30-15 when these three guys start. In the peripherals, each of them has some flaws but all three of them have improved all three of K%, BB%, and whiff rate from last year. 

The steady multiyear competence of guys like Tillman/Chen/Gonzalez was essential for the previous run of success, and I think this trio has a good chance to equal or exceed that group. Midrotation guys who give you a chance to win more often than not are really valuable for a franchise like the O's with an excellent position player core and a lacking pitching development pipeline. 

[Baltimorecuse]

Barring injuries I think our starting rotation will keep us competitive.  

[EddeeEddee]

ERA wise Orioles pitching was better last season up thru the All Star Break than it has been so far this year.  Last year it was 3.94 by the Break while this year so far it is 4.26.  I found this surprising, honestly.  But OPS wise we're a much better hitting team this year than last year up through the Break.  Last year we had a .688 OPS up to the Break while currently this season a .746 OPS.

This season O's starters are in the bottom 3rd of the league ERA wise -- 21st overall.  Not bad I guess for the Orioles but not good for a playoff team.  And O's starters are 19th in the league in total innings pitched.  Again, not that encouraging for a playoff team.  Wells and Bradish maybe could be the real deal, but this team clearly needs help at starting pitching, if not this season then next.  None of our Top 10 prospects are pitchers right now.  As is often the case for the Orioles the bullpen has made up so much of the difference -- 10th best ERA in the league.  Who has the top bullpen ERA wise this season?  The Yankees. 

I do have hope Wells, Bradish and Kremer continue to improve somewhat, but the others?  More of a prayer than a hope.  The O's have plenty of bats coming up through the ranks but are pretty skimpy on arms.  The Front Office has a lot of work cut out for them on the pitching front.  

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

ERA wise Orioles pitching was better last season up thru the All Star Break than it has been so far this year.  Last year it was 3.94 by the Break while this year so far it is 4.26.  I found this surprising, honestly.  But OPS wise we're a much better hitting team this year than last year up through the Break.  Last year we had a .688 OPS up to the Break while currently this season a .746 OPS.

This season O's starters are in the bottom 3rd of the league ERA wise -- 21st overall.  Not bad I guess for the Orioles but not good for a playoff team.  And O's starters are 19th in the league in total innings pitched.  Again, not that encouraging for a playoff team.  Wells and Bradish maybe could be the real deal, but this team clearly needs help at starting pitching, if not this season then next.  None of our Top 10 prospects are pitchers right now.  As is often the case for the Orioles the bullpen has made up so much of the difference -- 10th best ERA in the league.  Who has the top bullpen ERA wise this season?  The Yankees. 

I do have hope Wells, Bradish and Kremer continue to improve somewhat, but the others?  More of a prayer than a hope.  The O's have plenty of bats coming up through the ranks but are pretty skimpy on arms.  The Front Office has a lot of work cut out for them on the pitching front.  

In the 2nd half I expect to see GRod and Means.  Vespi is ready now.  Hall probably gets healthy at some point.  And Zimmermann has put up a 3.50 ERA at AAA and is with the O's right now in the pen.

[Sports Guy]

Several members of the rotation have some very ugly statcast numbers that don’t give you a lot of hope as the season goes on.

 

[drjohnnyfever1]

I'm still waiting to hear more on Means.  July was the initial time-frame, but now August after the back issue.  I don't see us making any Duque-ish type trade deals to get an additional TOR or #2 guy, but I would imagine there are targets that might be available for poor teams wanting to drop payroll.  But then I'm not sure we are in spending mode officially either - even with our performance thus far.  But even with a Means return and assuming it's successful, there's likely some movement coming before the trade deadline.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

ERA wise Orioles pitching was better last season up thru the All Star Break than it has been so far this year.  Last year it was 3.94 by the Break while this year so far it is 4.26.  I found this surprising, honestly.  But OPS wise we're a much better hitting team this year than last year up through the Break.  Last year we had a .688 OPS up to the Break while currently this season a .746 OPS.

Keep in mind that the offensive environment league wide has changed this year, due to rule changes favoring the offense and other factors. The AL lesgue-wide first half ERA was 3.87 last year; this year it’s 4.18. The AL league-wide first half OPS was .701 last year compared to .722 this year.  When you factor that in, our pitching is about the same as last year, while our offense is better than last year but not as much better as the raw 2022-23 numbers would suggest.  

[sportsfan8703]

Bradish and Kremer have really turned a corner.  Wells is still leading the league in WHIP.  

Can we really count on Means this season?

[spiritof66]

42 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Bradish and Kremer have really turned a corner.  Wells is still leading the league in WHIP.  

Can we really count on Means this season?

To me the important question is whether Means' likely return this season, combined with the uncertainty as to when that will happen and how effective he will be, will make Elias less likely to trade for an established starter before the deadline. I think it will, and that the Orioles will try to get by with four "real" starters until G-Rod or Means is ready to join the rotation. If hat's right, things could get pretty messy with an injury or two. 

[EddeeEddee]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Keep in mind that the offensive environment league wide has changed this year, due to rule changes favoring the offense and other factors. The AL lesgue-wide first half ERA was 3.87 last year; this year it’s 4.18. The AL league-wide first half OPS was .701 last year compared to .722 this year.  When you factor that in, our pitching is about the same as last year, while our offense is better than last year but not as much better as the raw 2022-23 numbers would suggest.  

Good point, thanks.  And when you see where O's starting pitching ranks against other teams it's about the same as it was for all of last year -- 21st in the league in ERA.  It does feel like the current starters will continue to improve overall, but improve enough to really challenge the best teams?  There's a luxury of big bats coming up the ranks yet an obvious lack of big arms.  I hope Elias has a big trade or two in him if not this year then in the offseason and into next year.

[wildcard]

 For the 2023 season

Wells  6-3    3.22 ERA    14 starts  86.2 IP  31 ER    0.888 WHIP

Gibson 8-5   4.30 ERA    16 starts    92 IP  44 ER   1.337 WHIP

In May and June after they turned a corner.

Kremer 6-2  3.40 ERA  10 starts,  58.1 IP  22 ER    1.252 WHIP

Bradish  3-2    3.14 ERA  10 starts,  57.1 IP   20 ER   1.030 WHIP

5th starter  - Means, GRod, Irvin, Akin

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Bradish and Kremer have really turned a corner.  Wells is still leading the league in WHIP.  

It’s amazing that Wells is carrying a 3.22 ERA and 1.9 HR/9 at the same time.  He’s allowed 33 runs all year, and 24 have come on 18 homers.