Ohtani Rental?

[bluedog]

Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

Angels might end up relocating to Las Vegas before the A's get a chance if they trade Ohtani and Trout to the Dodgers.

They might have to pull a Baltimore Colts and pack up the trucks and leave in the dead of night if they trade Ohtani & Trout.

[waroriole]

Until I see otherwise, I find it hard to believe he’s leaving Anaheim. That’s including through free agency. I think he resigns in Anaheim. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Yeah they seemed like the only team that might have the prospects and the willingness to eat salary.

I do question whether the Angels would trade two of the 10 best players in baseball to their hated cross town rival, regardless of the package offered. Can you imagine how embarrassing that would be?

Trout isn't getting traded.

He's hurt, the contract is huge and he has no trade protection.

[Billy F-Face3]

23 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree that the Angels do not want to trade Ohtani.

However, I do not agree/believe a Soto like package will be out there for them. Soto had 2 1/2 years left before FA, Ohtani will have 2 months. Even though Ohtani is the better/greater player, there is a limit to the value proposition given the very short amount of time that he will likely be with that team.

Besides only the Orioles, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks would be in a position to offer anything like what the Pads gave up for Soto. And I don’t see any of them really doing that. The Angels would really not want to trade Ohtani in market to the Dodgers and the Dodgers value their prospects and I don’t think they believe that they could be the Braves this year even with Ohtani. So, if they want him they can just wait until the offseason to sign him. 

Finally, I don’t see the Orioles or DBacks being willing to part with Soto like compensation for Ohtani. Neither org is built/set up that way financially to resign him and absorb that many losses of young assets.

You might be right. But it's been said the Angels are demanding multiple top 100 prospects for them to trade him.

There are also rumors now that the Tampa Bay Rays are a surprise team in the mix. (Their GM just made a bunch of remarks about how ownership was on board with the possibility.) So we now have 2 division rivals that MLB insiders are speculating is in the running to get Ohtani.

I don't know about you guys, but I do not want Ohtani going to a AL East division rival.

[Frobby]

On 7/15/2023 at 7:31 PM, Sports Guy said:

Listening to MLb radio earlier today and they were talking about teams that should go after Othani and the hosts immediately dismissed the Os as a team that should go after him.

Well then, that settles that!

[tntoriole]

5 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

You might be right. But it's been said the Angels are demanding multiple top 100 prospects for them to trade him.

There are also rumors now that the Tampa Bay Rays are a surprise team in the mix. (Their GM just made a bunch of remarks about how ownership was on board with the possibility.) So we now have 2 division rivals that MLB insiders are speculating is in the running to get Ohtani.

I don't know about you guys, but I do not want Ohtani going to a AL East division rival.

Well if multiple top 100 prospects is the price .. I would pass

But Yankees have 41st and 79th - Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells as their only two .. so if they want to ship them off for a couple months rental where the NY media gets to Ohtani and he slumps and they still finish 4th . That would be excellent!! 
 

Similar results for Red Sox would be good too!! 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

You might be right. But it's been said the Angels are demanding multiple top 100 prospects for them to trade him.

There are also rumors now that the Tampa Bay Rays are a surprise team in the mix. (Their GM just made a bunch of remarks about how ownership was on board with the possibility.) So we now have 2 division rivals that MLB insiders are speculating is in the running to get Ohtani.

I don't know about you guys, but I do not want Ohtani going to a AL East division rival.

The Yankees only have TWO top 100 prospects to begin with so unless they totally want to nuke their already not so promising future to “go for it” with a last placed team, then I don’t really see them having the capital or even the will to do an Ohtani. Let’s remember the Mets are now the biggest spenders in the sport with the deepest pockets. They can outbid the Yankees for Ohtani’s services on the open market. So, it could be a two month rental for the Yanks. That’s a lot to risk for them.

As far as the Rays go, I would be surprised if what Bowden said has actually a real merit. Their GM didn’t actually say they would be in the Ohtani market (obviously he couldn’t) but I didn’t take away from his comments what Bowden did.

According to Bowden, just about everyone should be in “buy mode”. He seems to be more of a pot-stirring than actually have great inside info/insight. 

However, if the Rays were willing to give 2/3 top 100 prospects for Ohtani, I would say good on them. They would probably beat us this year, but it would give us the leg up next year and in the near future.

[Billy F-Face3]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The Yankees only have TWO top 100 prospects to begin with so unless they totally want to nuke their already not so promising future to “go for it” with a last placed team, then I don’t really see them having the capital or even the will to do an Ohtani. Let’s remember the Mets are now the biggest spenders in the sport with the deepest pockets. They can outbid the Yankees for Ohtani’s services on the open market. So, it could be a two month rental for the Yanks. That’s a lot to risk for them.

As far as the Rays go, I would be surprised if what Bowden said has actually a real merit. Their GM didn’t actually say they would be in the Ohtani market (obviously he couldn’t) but I didn’t take away from his comments what Bowden did.

According to Bowden, just about everyone should be in “buy mode”. He seems to be more of a pot-stirring than actually have great inside info/insight. 

However, if the Rays were willing to give 2/3 top 100 prospects for Ohtani, I would say good on them. They would probably beat us this year, but it would give us the leg up next year and in the near future.

I think you're right.

[tntoriole]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The Yankees only have TWO top 100 prospects to begin with so unless they totally want to nuke their already not so promising future to “go for it” with a last placed team, then I don’t really see them having the capital or even the will to do an Ohtani. Let’s remember the Mets are now the biggest spenders in the sport with the deepest pockets. They can outbid the Yankees for Ohtani’s services on the open market. So, it could be a two month rental for the Yanks. That’s a lot to risk for them.

As far as the Rays go, I would be surprised if what Bowden said has actually a real merit. Their GM didn’t actually say they would be in the Ohtani market (obviously he couldn’t) but I didn’t take away from his comments what Bowden did.

According to Bowden, just about everyone should be in “buy mode”. He seems to be more of a pot-stirring than actually have great inside info/insight. 

However, if the Rays were willing to give 2/3 top 100 prospects for Ohtani, I would say good on them. They would probably beat us this year, but it would give us the leg up next year and in the near future.

In the incredibly SSS category .. 

Ohtani has hit .143 lifetime at Yankee Stadium and .245 lifetime at Camden Yards and .261 at Fenway but .348 at the Trop lol 

Edited July 17, 2023 by tntoriole

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

In the incredibly SSS category .. 

Ohtani has hit .143 lifetime at Yankee Stadium and .245 lifetime at Camden Yards and .261 at Fenway but .348 at the Trop lol 

But what is his ERA? lol

On a serious note, a talent like him will succeed wherever he goes. He's just that good!

[tntoriole]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

But what is his ERA? lol

On a serious note, a talent like him will succeed wherever he goes. He's just that good!

Over 162 games , yes. But baseball has had many stars who slump a bit when traded or in playoffs or World Series.  It is high risk if the price is as is being reported.  
plus the MFYs could resurrect Babe Ruth.. they are not going anywhere the rest of this season. 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Over 162 games , yes. But baseball has had many stars who slump a bit when traded or in playoffs or World Series.  It is high risk if the price is as is being reported.  
plus the MFYs could resurrect Babe Ruth.. they are not going anywhere the rest of this season. 

To be honest, I know for the last 20- 25+ years the Yankees and Red Sox have dominated the sport, but I honestly believe that era is over. I do a lot of futures/forecasting work in the business that I am in. I just don't see how you can reasonably project a great future right now for either one given how the dynamics of the sport have changed.

There are multiple factors at work, that neither team had to contend with for part of if not most of their runs of dominance (World Series wins).

1) Neither is at the top of the food chain from a fiscal perspective anymore. When the Yanks were winning World Series in the late 90s- early 2000's the Rays weren't a thing, and the Orioles and Blue Jays were in disarray. That is not likely to ever be the case again (at least not into the projectable future). In the Red Sox case, they can be outbid now for top FA's by teams like the Padres, Mets, Rangers, and Dodgers, they never had so many financial competitors to contend with. There weren't as many wealthy owners when they were making the bulk of their runs.

2) Neither team has a good farm system. While those things can change in a couple of years, it is not likely that either franchise would be willing to entertain any kind of rebuild in order to position themselves with maximum elite talent (the kind the Rays and Orioles currently posses). Now that the Orioles have an elite development system (at least for position players) the Red Sox nor Yankees will be able to enjoy any kind of competitive advantage in this area in the near future.

3) Both teams have aging, expensive, mediocre rosters. There is no easy fix to this. Because if you get rid of all of the older guys, you have to have players to replace them with. No team in the current economic structure of the sport can afford to go all free agent (not even the Mets... well maybe them?) Even if the Red Sox were say to sign an elite pitcher in the off season, they are certainly not 1 elite starter away from being as good as the Rays or O's.

4) Both franchises (especially the Red Sox) are trapped in the space of "in between". They are not bad enough to be able to obtain elite players through the draft/lottery system. But they are not good enough to be a serious World Series contender. Plus they are in markets (especially NY) where it is really hard to sell a rebuild. But they are almost going to be forced into some sort of one (especially the Red Sox who have a GM on the hot seat).

5) Finally, for the projectable future, there is a serious talent gap between the Red Sox and Yanks and the Rays and O's. No one or two players/big time FA's can make up for that. (I'm not sure that the Red Sox can even afford or outbid for two top FAs in a given season.) 

In short, everything that goes up must eventually come down. It's inevitable.

[osfan83]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

To be honest, I know for the last 20- 25+ years the Yankees and Red Sox have dominated the sport, but I honestly believe that era is over. I do a lot of futures/forecasting work in the business that I am in. I just don't see how you can reasonably project a great future right now for either one given how the dynamics of the sport have changed.

There are multiple factors at work, that neither team had to contend with for part of if not most of their runs of dominance (World Series wins).

1) Neither is at the top of the food chain from a fiscal perspective anymore. When the Yanks were winning World Series in the late 90s- early 2000's the Rays weren't a thing, and the Orioles and Blue Jays were in disarray. That is not likely to ever be the case again (at least not into the projectable future). In the Red Sox case, they can be outbid now for top FA's by teams like the Padres, Mets, Rangers, and Dodgers, they never had so many financial competitors to contend with. There weren't as many wealthy owners when they were making the bulk of their runs.

2) Neither team has a good farm system. While those things can change in a couple of years, it is not likely that either franchise would be willing to entertain any kind of rebuild in order to position themselves with maximum elite talent (the kind the Rays and Orioles currently posses). Now that the Orioles have an elite development system (at least for position players) the Red Sox nor Yankees will be able to enjoy any kind of competitive advantage in this area in the near future.

3) Both teams have aging, expensive, mediocre rosters. There is no easy fix to this. Because if you get rid of all of the older guys, you have to have players to replace them with. No team in the current economic structure of the sport can afford to go all free agent (not even the Mets... well maybe them?) Even if the Red Sox were say to sign an elite pitcher in the off season, they are certainly not 1 elite starter away from being as good as the Rays or O's.

4) Both franchises (especially the Red Sox) are trapped in the space of "in between". They are not bad enough to be able to obtain elite players through the draft/lottery system. But they are not good enough to be a serious World Series contender. Plus they are in markets (especially NY) where it is really hard to sell a rebuild. But they are almost going to be forced into some sort of one (especially the Red Sox who have a GM on the hot seat).

5) Finally, for the projectable future, there is a serious talent gap between the Red Sox and Yanks and the Rays and O's. No one or two players/big time FA's can make up for that. (I'm not sure that the Red Sox can even afford or outbid for two top FAs in a given season.) 

In short, everything that goes up must eventually come down. It's inevitable.

I would agree if the future you speak of is 2-3 years. But both the Yanks and Sox can restock quickly. Remember when the Red Sox were stuck with old declining players and within a year remade the roster and won a WS? Hit on a couple of picks and sign 2-3 FAs and all the sudden these teams have a 5 player core that can compete with anyone. Both teams are having a down year, and they are still 6 over and in a playoff race. 

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

I would agree if the future you speak of is 2-3 years. But both the Yanks and Sox can restock quickly. Remember when the Red Sox were stuck with old declining players and within a year remade the roster and won a WS? Hit on a couple of picks and sign 2-3 FAs and all the sudden these teams have a 5 player core that can compete with anyone. Both teams are having a down year, and they are still 6 over and in a playoff race. 

The Orioles and probably the Rays given how strong their systems are currently, are likely to be better next year.

The Yanks and Red Sox will not enjoy any serious competitive advantage like they have in the past were at least one and in some cases 2 or 3 of the other teams in the division were easy door mats.

I can't see the Red Sox being able to afford/outbid other competitors in the game for 2 or 3 of the top FAs in a given year. IMO those days are over. When they enjoyed their incredible run, they only had to worry about 2/3 other teams who had the type of financial resources that they do. Now, San Diego, Texas, the Mets, and Phillies are all at least at their level or in some cases higher (and in the Mets case in a different stratosphere). 

[Moose Milligan]

I think they're gonna trade Ohtani.  I don't see how he stays, he's voiced his frustration multiple times...even though he's been as diplomatic as he can possibly be, you don't have to read a tea leaf to understand that he's not happy.  I don't blame him, I bet when he first thought about teaming up with Mike Trout 5 years ago, he figured they'd be a contender.  

So even if the Angels somehow match an offer from a team like the Dodgers, I don't see how he chooses Anaheim again.  

They have to trade him.  They can't let him walk, they need talent back.  If they let him walk, that would be a monumentally boneheaded move.  

As far as the Yankees trying to trade for him, go right ahead, especially if it takes their only two top 100 prospects to do it.  It might make them formidable for the next 2-3 years but I'm all for them depleting their system as much as they possibly can.  I'm assuming it would take their two Top 100 guys and then 4-5 more real low level scratch-off lottery ticket types.  I'm assuming the Rays could put together a much more appealing package.

I'd be really surprised if they don't trade him.

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

In the incredibly SSS category .. 

Ohtani has hit .143 lifetime at Yankee Stadium and .245 lifetime at Camden Yards and .261 at Fenway but .348 at the Trop lol 

Dunno, I don't think it's shocking that a guy who has to fly 3,000 miles and is a full time pitcher and hitter doesn't hit particularly well at 3/4 ballparks.  It's a grind.

It's a small sample size, to be sure.  But I think he'd quickly erase Judge's Yankees jerkoff/AL home run season record if he were to play in NYC with that stupid right field.

38 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

 

In short, everything that goes up must eventually come down. It's inevitable.

I like all your points, but I would never count those two teams out, their resources are practically unlimited.  The future doesn't look particularly bright for either of them and that's great for us.  

Your ultimate point is correct, everything that goes up must eventually come down.  And that includes the Orioles, too.  The Yankees have had some dull periods in their history but history has shown that they usually figure out ways to correct course.  Same with the Sox to a lesser extent.