Kjerstad and Ortiz

[Sports Guy]

These are the last 2 (although you can argue Prieto too) position players that are excelling at a high level in AAA that could find their way on this team this year.

Ortiz has obviously already been here but his playing time has been sporadic and nothing can be gleaned from it. But he is hitting very well, shows excellent exit velos and his defense is potential the best in the organization , regardless of level.  He should be playing SS basically everyday in the majors right now and it’s time to DFA Mateo to get him up here.
 

Kjerstad has gone to AAA and hasn’t missed a beat. He is hitting righties and lefties. He is hitting for a high average and walking a lot. He just really isn’t showing any red flags.

Now, he only has about 100 PA in AAA so far, so there is still time to give him at bats down there if you want but the reality is that he is probably ready to be up.

As this season goes on, it will become harder and harder to keep Kjerstad down but for right now, he is “easy” to keep down because of what we have at the ML level.

Maybe it will take an injury or maybe he comes up when rosters expand in September but not before then but if he is bombing the ball and has a 1000+ OPS in AAA at the end of this month, I wonder if there will be any temptation to move on from Hays or Santander to give him everyday at bats up here.

Hays would be tough to trade right now but you can also see a Jorge Lopez, we feel his value will never be higher scenario.

Santander I feel is more likely to be traded but it still feels that both are real long shots unless they can be key pieces in a trade for a starter.

[waroriole]

I’d be surprised if we see Kjerstad this year. He probably has to wait until late April next year. 

[IPlayGM]

Just posted this in the minors thread…regarding Heston.

 

I keep shuffling between two questions:

How can he actually come up this year?

With his performance, how can he not?

Obviously things will settle in over the next month or so, and we will see how the young guys in Baltimore progress, but Heston seems like he could be the most impactful lineup guy that we could bring up. I’m just having a hard time figuring out how to bring him up without making a pretty significant trade, which I just have my doubts that Elias would do mid year.

[forphase1]

Ortiz should be up with the Mateo and Frazier playing time cut to give him playing time.   I love how Kjerstad is hitting the ball,  but I don't see how we get him constant at bats unless someone is traded or injured.  I'd trade Hays if the deal is right,  but the way he's played all year makes trading him tough.  This is a great problem to have,  and unlike the IF players where the Os had a real need,  it's harder to say that about the OF.  I do tend to think that Santander is moved in the off season if not before. 

[LookinUp]

Personally, I'm not trading any of our young stud hitters, regardless of our need for pitching, and I am trying to have this team in September include Ortiz, Kjerstad and maybe even Mayo, assuming he does good in AAA the next 2 months.

This future of this team, IMO, needs to be:

Adley (C), Gunnar (3B), Ortiz (SS), Holliday (2B), Mayo (1B/DH), Kjerstad (1B/DH), Cowser (LF), Westburg (2b, 3b, DH, OF), Basallo (C, DH, OF).

Now, most of you, and often me, probably want to trade 1 of our middle infielders since they can get the best return, but I personally wouldn't.

So that means I'd trade Norby, Prieto, Povich, Willems, Fabian (hate this one), Haskin and maybe some of the young DR guys for middle relievers, since that's all these guys would likely return.

If I'm Elias, I'm keeping these dudes and trying to find pitching under any rock I can now or in the offseason.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

Just posted this in the minors thread…regarding Heston.

 

I keep shuffling between two questions:

How can he actually come up this year?

With his performance, how can he not?

Obviously things will settle in over the next month or so, and we will see how the young guys in Baltimore progress, but Heston seems like he could be the most impactful lineup guy that we could bring up. I’m just having a hard time figuring out how to bring him up without making a pretty significant trade, which I just have my doubts that Elias would do mid year.

I think we no trades, the only way to get him up here is injury, roster expansion or Guys like OHearn just revert back to what they have always been but honestly, I’m not sure I see that happening with OHearn.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Ortiz should be up with the Mateo and Frazier playing time cut to give him playing time.   I love how Kjerstad is hitting the ball,  but I don't see how we get him constant at bats unless someone is traded or injured.  I'd trade Hays if the deal is right,  but the way he's played all year makes trading him tough.  This is a great problem to have,  and unlike the IF players where the Os had a real need,  it's harder to say that about the OF.  I do tend to think that Santander is moved in the off season if not before. 

Honestly, I would be shocked if Santander were an Oriole in 2024.

[jamalshw]

7 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Ortiz should be up with the Mateo and Frazier playing time cut to give him playing time.   I love how Kjerstad is hitting the ball,  but I don't see how we get him constant at bats unless someone is traded or injured.  I'd trade Hays if the deal is right,  but the way he's played all year makes trading him tough.  This is a great problem to have,  and unlike the IF players where the Os had a real need,  it's harder to say that about the OF.  I do tend to think that Santander is moved in the off season if not before. 

I'd argue that Frazier and Mateo should basically be bench players now without Ortiz. The regular infield should be Westburg, Henderson and Urias. With Ortiz up, that would push Urias to the bench (fine) and would mean one of Frazier or Mateo would have to be DFA'd to make room on the roster. I wouldn't mind that, of course, but I don't see the Orioles doing that. They love their depth. Of course a trade or injury could play into this, too, but I don't know that Frazier or Mateo have any value at all. Maybe Urias does? 

In my ideal world we would have an infield of Henderson, Ortiz, and Westburg with Mateo on the bench as a pinch runner and defensive replacement, Frazier DFA'd (we're too left-handed heavy anyway) and Urias also on the bench, playing the occasional 3B, 2B, and 1B. That said, Urias's splits aren't great against LHP which would be his primary role in this situation. Still, I think a bench of Mateo, Urias, Hicks and McCann is a strong bench with a regular lineup of (in no order): Henderson, Ortiz, Westburg, O'Hearns, Adley, Santander, Hays, Mullins, and Cowser. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Personally, I'm not trading any of our young stud hitters, regardless of our need for pitching, and I am trying to have this team in September include Ortiz, Kjerstad and maybe even Mayo, assuming he does good in AAA the next 2 months.

This future of this team, IMO, needs to be:

Adley (C), Gunnar (3B), Ortiz (SS), Holliday (2B), Mayo (1B/DH), Kjerstad (1B/DH), Cowser (LF), Westburg (2b, 3b, DH, OF), Basallo (C, DH, OF).

Now, most of you, and often me, probably want to trade 1 of our middle infielders since they can get the best return, but I personally wouldn't.

So that means I'd trade Norby, Prieto, Povich, Willems, Fabian (hate this one), Haskin and maybe some of the young DR guys for middle relievers, since that's all these guys would likely return.

If I'm Elias, I'm keeping these dudes and trying to find pitching under any rock I can now or in the offseason.

1) Holliday will be the SS

2) You don’t have to trade one of Ortiz or Westburg but you probably have to trade Norby(who you didn’t name) and the Ortiz/Westburg decision comes down to what is their value in trade vs their role with the team. Whatever is higher is the direction they should go.

3) Fabian should stay because you aren’t likely giving Mullins an extension..and really, you shouldn’t give him one.

[maybenxtyr]

I struggle with this because I'd rather see the young prospects up. The part I struggle with is, trying to stagger some of the FA years with the youth.

 

Kjerstad seems like he's going to be the middle of the order bat that they need though. I still believe Westburg is going to show some serious power this season too.

 

Back to the trade thing though...I think Santander would be the first vet, followed by Hays. I'm in no hurry to trade either even though it does make sense, and it's going to be necessary. 

[Sports Guy]

I think it’s very hard to say that we are relying on Hays long term. The talent has always been there but the durability and reliability have not. If some team believes he is an above average everyday OFer (which he probably is if/when healthy), it may be very tempting to trade him knowing what you can replace him with.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Bahama O's Fan]

11 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I'd argue that Frazier and Mateo should basically be bench players now without Ortiz. The regular infield should be Westburg, Henderson and Urias. With Ortiz up, that would push Urias to the bench (fine) and would mean one of Frazier or Mateo would have to be DFA'd to make room on the roster. I wouldn't mind that, of course, but I don't see the Orioles doing that. They love their depth. Of course a trade or injury could play into this, too, but I don't know that Frazier or Mateo have any value at all. Maybe Urias does? 

In my ideal world we would have an infield of Henderson, Ortiz, and Westburg with Mateo on the bench as a pinch runner and defensive replacement, Frazier DFA'd (we're too left-handed heavy anyway) and Urias also on the bench, playing the occasional 3B, 2B, and 1B. That said, Urias's splits aren't great against LHP which would be his primary role in this situation. Still, I think a bench of Mateo, Urias, Hicks and McCann is a strong bench with a regular lineup of (in no order): Henderson, Ortiz, Westburg, O'Hearns, Adley, Santander, Hays, Mullins, and Cowser. 

I like all of this, but we're leaving out one guy-Mountcastle. What does Elias do when his time on IL is over?

[IPlayGM]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s very hard to say that we are relying on Hays long term. The talent has always been there but the durability and reliability have not. If some team believes he is an above average everyday OFer (which he probably is if/when healthy), it may be very tempting to trade him knowing what you can replace him with.

Look at it this way…who would you rather have 

Hays/Mullins/Santander

Cowser/Mullins/Kjerstad + Hays/Santander trade bounty…

I think that will end up being a no brainer, the only question is when do you do it. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

Look at it this way…who would you rather have 

Hays/Mullins/Santander

Cowser/Mullins/Kjerstad + Hays/Santander trade bounty…

I think that will end up being a no brainer, the only question is when do you do it. 

Santander is definitely being trade imo, albeit probably not until the offseason. His salary and service time alone make that chance very high.

Hays is a bit trickier. You can keep him And rotate the COF spots and DH. That can make some sense. To me, Hays comes down to value. Where is he more valuable? What value does have in a trade?

Edited July 6, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Ripken]

5 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I like all of this, but we're leaving out one guy-Mountcastle. What does Elias do when his time on IL is over?

Leave him where he is.  I'm a big fan but he can't keep wildly chasing pitches like he's been.  He either learns some plate discipline or his career will be over.

And I'd release Mateo today.  He can not hit and we have lots of IFs who can.