Cease vs everyone else

[Aristotelian]

16 minutes ago, banks703 said:

This is exactly right. Realistically, the Orioles cannot (simply cannot) do better than Cease whether in FA or via trade. The dude is only making $8 mil this year. For the folks on here who were comparing Cease to Kyle Gibson (LOL by the way) ... Kyle is making $13 mil with the Cards in 24. 

The O's have a surplus of talent that they are legitimately wasting. I love how Elias, Sig and company have rebuilt the system but good grief, they are prospect hoarders. Someone on here referenced a quote in a book or interview or something about how much trouble Sig has with parting with prospects. This off-season seems to support that idea because the only way that they can improve the rotation is to send away assets to do so and unless the WS are legitimately asking for Holliday and/or Basallo to headline a deal (and there has been nothing reported that supports that suggestion), some combo of the other top guys should get it done. I don't consider any of the remaining top 30 guys untouchable, though I think Mayo is closer to Holliday and Basallo than anyone else. I'm a big big fan of both Joey and Cowser but if those two kids plus fillers could get you Dylan Cease, who is at least as good as the O's current best 1 or 2 starter, I will drive Joey and Cowser to the airport myself. 

The WS know the O's aren't going to move prospects for a 5th starter retread but they also know that the O's can't do better than Dylan Cease. Perhaps their demands are in the Holliday, Basallo, Mayo neighborhood. Obviously they know that the O's aren't trading Holliday so we can cross that off of the list. The WS aren't stupid. Basallo is closely behind Holliday and I'd argue just as much untouchable. It would really sting to give up Mayo and I'd prefer that they do not go that route but acquiring an established ML starter, who misses bats, posts and eats innings, exposing him to their analytics, culture and giving him the benefit of an improved ballclub while pitching half of his games in Walltimore.. get out of here. A change of scenery on a better team could do wonders for him. It's worth the risk because the alternative is that the prospects who they are holding don't get a chance in 24 and will be at least a half year older before there's more urgency to move them, further reducing their value. The WS know all of this. 

You make a strong case but I would not do Mayo. When the Cease threads started I was on board with Cowser but that is about my absolute limit. If we did Kjerstad I'd feel disgusting but probably supported it. Cease is solid but he is not a guy we have to have. Mayo/Basallo/Holliday is just a hard no. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, banks703 said:

You're better than this. 

I value the volume of innings.

[banks703]

19 minutes ago, interloper said:

When did I advocate pissing away money?

If Angelos had approved, say, a competitive offer for Bassitt, we might not have needed to pull the weak trade for Flaherty. That would have been a reasonable, affordable deal to help the rotation over the next few years. 

Perhaps I missed the memo but I don't recall Bassitt seriously considering the O's. I'm all about taking shots at the Angelos family when warranted but we don't know whether or not they extended Chris Bassitt an offer or if they did, whether or not Baltimore was an option that he entertained. 

[banks703]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You make a strong case but I would not do Mayo. When the Cease threads started I was on board with Cowser but that is about my absolute limit. If we did Kjerstad I'd feel disgusting but probably supported it. Cease is solid but he is not a guy we have to have. Mayo/Basallo/Holliday is just a hard no. 

I'm not suggesting that I would trade Mayo. It's easy to salivate at the idea of a future infield of Mayo, Gunnar, Holliday, Basallo and Adley. 

I'd prefer they do not trade Mayo and I would be ok with a deal with the WS not materializing if he is their demand. 

[banks703]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I value the volume of innings.

Kyle has pitched a total of 15 innings more than Cease over the last three seasons. That's five innings more per year. That's an extremely low number of innings better than Cease.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, banks703 said:

Perhaps I missed the memo but I don't recall Bassitt seriously considering the O's. I'm all about taking shots at the Angelos family when warranted but we don't know whether or not they extended Chris Bassitt an offer or if they did, whether or not Baltimore was an option that he entertained. 

I was merely using him as an example of a guy who was reasonably priced - who knows if he really would have signed here or if we had interest. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, banks703 said:

Kyle has pitched a total of 15 innings more than Cease over the last three seasons. That's five innings more per year. That's an extremely low number of innings better than Cease.

I wasn't talking about Cease, I was talking about Paxton.

[24fps]

29 minutes ago, owknows said:

But you fail to acknowledge that the owner's level of spending produced 101 wins.

And that teams like the Yankees that don't have "cheap ass owners" produced 82.

Maybe it isn't the level of spending that produced the difference.

Maybe development, wise personnel decisions, decent coaching, and team dynamics are as or more important.

And maybe the sustainable path for the team doesn't involve pissing away money on players no better than the ones you have.

Just a thought.

The owner's level of spending for the length of time he's clearly been in control - prior to the 2019 season - has produced a record of 315-393 or a winning percentage around 0.445.  Not great.  Perhaps his full record should be your yardstick if you're about to build a statue to him.

[Just Regular]

Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler was one where a negotiation ended simply with a high value player on each side, and none of the Astroball type stuff with "Seth Beer", "Daz Cameron", etc.

I think individually Mayo and Basallo are each more valuable, but Getz supplementing with Kopech or Crochet might be a path to giving enough Arm value for a Bat he covets.

I feel sure Elias is trying to bundle players 6-11-16-21 to get his dollar for three quarters and a dime.

Cease is only special if a 6-month solution for 2024's AL East competition is paramount.    If Sigbot thinks the Club is already well equipped to defend the division title, then locking in on Cease now does incur some opportunity cost in the ability to browse the market in July, and gain a view what the injury gods have in store for '24.     

It was easier in the days you could negate the risk of a good pitcher suffering injury by not having any good pitchers.

[banks703]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wasn't talking about Cease, I was talking about Paxton.

Well then I owe you an apology. 

Edited January 12 by banks703

[btdart20]

10 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler was one where a negotiation ended simply with a high value player on each side, and none of the Astroball type stuff with "Seth Beer", "Daz Cameron", etc.

I think individually Mayo and Basallo are each more valuable, but Getz supplementing with Kopech or Crochet might be a path to giving enough Arm value for a Bat he covets.

I feel sure Elias is trying to bundle players 6-11-16-21 to get his dollar for three quarters and a dime.

Cease is only special if a 6-month solution for 2024's AL East competition is paramount.    If Sigbot thinks the Club is already well equipped to defend the division title, then locking in on Cease now does incur some opportunity cost in the ability to browse the market in July, and gain a view what the injury gods have in store for '24.     

It was easier in the days you could negate the risk of a good pitcher suffering injury by not having any good pitchers.

Are you saying the replacement value isn't a standard rider on the rotation policy?  #firstworldproblems 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Early last offseason, I jokingly predicted that Gibson would be our "big" SP acquisition and that actually came to pass, and yesterday I joked that Paxton would be our "big" SP acquisition this offseason and today we are reported to be considering him.

I'm sorry, guys.

[deward]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

This is exactly right. Realistically, the Orioles cannot (simply cannot) do better than Cease whether in FA or via trade. The dude is only making $8 mil this year. For the folks on here who were comparing Cease to Kyle Gibson (LOL by the way) ... Kyle is making $13 mil with the Cards in 24. 

The O's have a surplus of talent that they are legitimately wasting. I love how Elias, Sig and company have rebuilt the system but good grief, they are prospect hoarders. Someone on here referenced a quote in a book or interview or something about how much trouble Sig has with parting with prospects. This off-season seems to support that idea because the only way that they can improve the rotation is to send away assets to do so and unless the WS are legitimately asking for Holliday and/or Basallo to headline a deal (and there has been nothing reported that supports that suggestion), some combo of the other top guys should get it done. I don't consider any of the remaining top 30 guys untouchable, though I think Mayo is closer to Holliday and Basallo than anyone else. I'm a big big fan of both Joey and Cowser but if those two kids plus fillers could get you Dylan Cease, who is at least as good as the O's current best 1 or 2 starter, I will drive Joey and Cowser to the airport myself. 

The WS know the O's aren't going to move prospects for a 5th starter retread but they also know that the O's can't do better than Dylan Cease. Perhaps their demands are in the Holliday, Basallo, Mayo neighborhood. Obviously they know that the O's aren't trading Holliday so we can cross that off of the list. The WS aren't stupid. Basallo is closely behind Holliday and I'd argue just as much untouchable. It would really sting to give up Mayo and I'd prefer that they do not go that route but acquiring an established ML starter, who misses bats, posts and eats innings, exposing him to their analytics, culture and giving him the benefit of an improved ballclub while pitching half of his games in Walltimore.. get out of here. A change of scenery on a better team could do wonders for him. It's worth the risk because the alternative is that the prospects who they are holding don't get a chance in 24 and will be at least a half year older before there's more urgency to move them, further reducing their value. The WS know all of this. 

I think you're overvaluing Cease and undervaluing the guys currently in the rotation. I'm fine with Elias waiting until the deadline to see if a better opportunity emerges, if the WS are trying to price Cease based on 2022 rather than 2023. 

[owknows]

50 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Early last offseason, I jokingly predicted that Gibson would be our "big" SP acquisition and that actually came to pass, and yesterday I joked that Paxton would be our "big" SP acquisition this offseason and today we are reported to be considering him.

I'm sorry, guys.

Gibson won us 15 games last year.

The horror.

[owknows]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

The owner's level of spending for the length of time he's clearly been in control - prior to the 2019 season - has produced a record of 315-393 or a winning percentage around 0.445.  Not great.  Perhaps his full record should be your yardstick if you're about to build a statue to him.

Did you miss the whole Hiring Elias, tanking to build a farm, and now having the top system in baseball and winning 101 games thing?