Cease vs everyone else

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I don't know about you but I find that shocking. Are you sure that's correct?

You could always fact check the Frobster.

[wildbillhiccup]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

To be clear, our starters were 6th in MLB innings pitched.  We didn’t ride our bullpen all that hard relative to other teams.  These were definitely some bumpy moments.  

To be fair the Orioles also led all of baseball in total innings pitched so maybe both can be true? I tried to find a breakdown of bullpen innings for each team, but didn't have any luck. 

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yankees have 7 top 100 prospects according to Baseball America, but none in the top 50.  It looks like Yankees are still holding back there 2 best prospects In Dominguez and Jones.  From what I see, the O's still have the best potential deal even holding back Holliday, Mayo and Basallo. 

 

https://elitesportsny.com/2023/08/11/these-7-yankees-prospects-made-baseball-america-top-100/

This is going to be a quantity over quality deal imo. If that ends up being true, whether a guy is a top 75 guy or top 125 guy, there’s just very little difference there.  

If the Os are willing to put Cowser or Kjerstad on the table, that will give the WS the best player they can get, at least  according to rankings. Of course, maybe the WS prefer Spencer Jones but I tend to doubt it.

But if the Os are willing to add one of those guys, who is clearly the best rated prospect they will get in a deal, how much does that matter?  What type of value is put on that top guy vs 2-3 guys in the 75-120 range? And what else would the Os put with him? 

And this is before we talk about Westburg.

All of this is to  say that if this ends up a quantity deal, the Yankees can match us and maybe give them guys that have a chance to be more relevant in their likely competition window.

If this ends up quality vs quality, I’m not sure the Yanks can beat us unless the WS just don’t like Cowser or Kjerstad.

The likeliest outcome imo is the Yankees get Cease…they send 4 players led by Hampton and 2 other top 100 guys not named Spencer and another intl lottery ticket.

If I had to guess, that’s the deal that occurs.

[Roll Tide]

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2024/01/09/arbitration-deadline-loosen-trade-market-orioles/

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2024/01/09/arbitration-deadline-loosen-trade-market-orioles/

This is kind of what I've been thinking. Lots of 40-man manuevering can happen around the arb deadline, so maybe that's something to pin some trade hopes on. If not for Cease then maybe for smaller moves like Urias or one of the out-of-options relievers. 

Edited January 9 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

Hampton, Peirera, Lombard/Arias and an Intl lottery ticket 

Ortiz/Norby, Beavers, Povich, Intl lottery ticket Tony has outside our top 20 or so or someone like Wagner or even a high risk high reward guy like Baumler.  

I think those are the types of deals that the WS could be looking at and in that scenario, I think it’s likely they take the Yankees deal.

[sportsfan8703]

Two dominos that will fall this week that could affect us, 

1.  On Th afternoon the posting deadline ends for Imanaga and Uwasawa.

2. The Dodgers have to make a 40 man move after signing Teoscar Hernandez. They just did a prospect- for non 40 man prospect with the NYY last month. 

[Moose Milligan]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hampton, Peirera, Lombard/Arias and an Intl lottery ticket 

Ortiz/Norby, Beavers, Povich, Intl lottery ticket Tony has outside our top 20 or so or someone like Wagner or even a high risk high reward guy like Baumler.  

I think those are the types of deals that the WS could be looking at and in that scenario, I think it’s likely they take the Yankees deal.

If that's what goes down, are you upset about it?  Obviously we'll never know what the Orioles offered if they take the Yankees deal.

But I can't get too mad if the Yankees get him.  If the Yankees keep depleting their system so they can win a sprint and lose a marathon, I'm all for it.  

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If that's what goes down, are you upset about it?  Obviously we'll never know what the Orioles offered if they take the Yankees deal.

But I can't get too mad if the Yankees get him.  If the Yankees keep depleting their system so they can win a sprint and lose a marathon, I'm all for it.  

 

It depends on what else they do.

This isn’t a Cease or bust offseason.

But they need to add a legit arm that could be a playoff difference maker or else I think Elias has completely failed this offseason.

 

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It depends on what else they do.

This isn’t a Cease or bust offseason.

But they need to add a legit arm that could be a playoff difference maker or else I think Elias has completely failed this offseason.

 

I think the chances are very slim that they do that. There really aren't playoff difference maker pitchers available. Burnes is confirmed staying put. Marlins pitchers are too young to be considered playoff difference makers. Cease, who knows, pretty good chance to stay put and build value. Valdez won't be traded. Luzardo won't be traded. Bieber has lost velo the past 3 seasons and gets hurt a lot. We're not signing Montgomery or Imanaga. Stroman isn't really a difference maker anymore than Bradish or Grayson probably. 

Where is this playoff difference maker coming from exactly? 

Edited January 9 by interloper

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It depends on what else they do.

This isn’t a Cease or bust offseason.

But they need to add a legit arm that could be a playoff difference maker or else I think Elias has completely failed this offseason.

 

That's true, it depends on what else they do.  

I've gone on record as saying I think they're going to bank on G-Rod year 2 and a healthy Means being the main "offseason acquisitions."  Irvin/Hall for the 5th spot.  

Now I'm not rooting for that to happen, I agree that they need to add a good starter but I can easily, easily see this outcome.  Lots of tire kicking, no acquisitions for a key rotation arm.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If that's what goes down, are you upset about it?  Obviously we'll never know what the Orioles offered if they take the Yankees deal.

But I can't get too mad if the Yankees get him.  If the Yankees keep depleting their system so they can win a sprint and lose a marathon, I'm all for it.  

 

I’d be upset over that package. Ortiz and Norby could be in Stowers land when the new mid season lists come out. However, that doesn’t change that they have more value to us as depth, than value in a trade. 

I’d like for us to offer Westburg and Cowser if need be and get this deal done. Cease even makes the bullpen better because then Wells is in the pen. 

Pitching analytics matters. Scherzer and Verlander both said that the Mets basically had nothing compared to what they were used to. So if we get Cease in here then I’d be optimistic that we get closer to the 2022 version than the 2023 version. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’d be upset over that package. Ortiz and Norby could be in Stowers land when the new mid season lists come out. However, that doesn’t change that they have more value to us as depth, than value in a trade. 

I’d like for us to offer Westburg and Cowser if need be and get this deal done. Cease even makes the bullpen better because then Wells is in the pen. 

Pitching analytics matters. Scherzer and Verlander both said that the Mets basically had nothing compared to what they were used to. So if we get Cease in here then I’d be optimistic that we get closer to the 2022 version than the 2023 version. 

Pitching analytics does matter.  It's the one reason I kind of want Cease but I'm also not heartbroken if we don't get him.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think the chances are very slim that they do that. There really aren't playoff difference maker pitchers available. Burnes is confirmed staying put. Marlins pitchers are too young to be considered playoff difference makers. Cease, who knows, pretty good chance to stay put and build value. Valdez won't be traded. Luzardo won't be traded. Bieber has lost velo the past 3 seasons and gets hurt a lot. We're not signing Montgomery or Imanaga. Stroman isn't really a difference maker anymore than Bradish or Grayson probably. 

Where is this playoff difference maker coming from exactly? 

I said a playoff arm that COUlD be a difference maker.

A guy like Edward Cabrera without questions falls into that category. He isn’t right now but a lot can change, especially with our development, between now and October. He is a risk to rely on, no doubt..but it’s better than what we have and the upside is huge.

Cease is obviously more of a sure thing. I want both of them. I think that’s what is best for the team now and long term but I need at least one.

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, Number5 said:

If Cease is traded, my guess is that White Sox fans will be calling for Getz's head for getting too little back.  If Cease is not traded, they will probably be calling for Getz's head for not getting 4 top 50 prospects plus 5 lottery tickets, as he should have easily been able to do.  Sounds about right - White Sox fans are pretty much like all other fans.

Caring what the fans think instead of trying to improve your organization for long term success is a bad recipe.