Arbitration demands and offers to be exchanged next Friday (1/12)

[Billy F-Face3]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Did you create it?

No I'm not that smart lol. I downloaded online along time ago, but I forget what obscure website I found it.

[Just Regular]

I believe an algorithm could suggest a 50-yard line but that's before the adversaries circling, poker bluffing contest in which a Club and an Agent submit numbers, and then there's an outcome of the Club's 40-yard line or the Agent's 25-yard line.

It was only a couple CBA cycles ago for me that it was interesting to learn that collusion by the league (all good, it is what the parties agreed to) is permitted for these often mid-20's All-Stars.    I suppose the Orioles Economic Analyst gives input, but they don't have to shoulder the workload independently.

I believe there's also some elevators (Ryan Howard is the main example for me for this) where if a Player is MVP or has rare accomplishments they earn the opportunity to get extra favorable comparison privileges, which I do hope one Adley Rutschman is able to tap into for 2025-2027.

[ThisIsBirdland]

 

 

[Just Regular]

I'd guess we see some settlements these 24-48 hours.       It's the last rehearsal before Adley Arb season ushers in the big time in 2025.    It'll be bad news if '25 Mullins doesn't take the number higher than '24 Santander.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I'd guess we see some settlements these 24-48 hours.     

Well sure.  I’d imagine more than half the cases will be settled before tomorrow’s deadline.  

[Just Regular]

One readout of the starting outfielders as we get to see data tonight as they get towards real money.    I believe in each case the 2024 salary will about double their career earnings.

Last 3 Years WAR/650 PA

4.5, Cedric Mullins

3.1, Austin Hays

2.0, Anthony Santander

For the market we're in, an energizing piece of news today might be a 2-year agreement with Mullins or Hays to take care of this through their free agency.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

One readout of the starting outfielders as we get to see data tonight as they get towards real money.    I believe in each case the 2024 salary will about double their career earnings.

Last 3 Years WAR/650 PA

4.5, Cedric Mullins

3.1, Austin Hays

2.0, Anthony Santander

For the market we're in, an energizing piece of news today might be a 2-year agreement with Mullins or Hays to take care of this through their free agency.

I’ve never really thought there was any advantage to the team in signing a player through their Arb years without tacking on any free agent years or option years.   

[ChicagoTerp]

Means agrees to 1yr / $3.325M

MLBTR had him projected at $5.93M

[Sports Guy]

Dirt cheap.  I wonder if there will be some incentives built in to this?

[RVAOsFan]

Does Means contract coming in lower than expected mean him and the team both are concerned about his health going into this season?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Does Means contract coming in lower than expected mean him and the team both are concerned about his health going into this season?

No. The $5.93 mm MLBTR number was a joke.  Alex Cobb was a very comparable case when he was with the Rays, and he got a $200 k raise in Arb 3 after making only 5 starts in Arb 2 after returning from TJ surgery the previous season. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

 

 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve never really thought there was any advantage to the team in signing a player through their Arb years without tacking on any free agent years or option years.   

Granted they are nothing burgers but occasionally with core players like Bryce Harper or Bo Bichette Clubs have stepped through settling end of the Arb line prices an extra year in advance.      But yea, even Mullins really isn't at their level.      I don't think Elias thinks its 100% he'll tender everyone for 2025 depending on if the young outfielders can leapfrog the depth chart this season.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Granted they are nothing burgers but occasionally with core players like Bryce Harper or Bo Bichette Clubs have stepped through settling end of the Arb line prices an extra year in advance.      But yea, even Mullins really isn't at their level.      I don't think Elias thinks its 100% he'll tender everyone for 2025 depending on if the young outfielders can leapfrog the depth chart this season.

The reason I don’t like doing an extension through only the Arb years is it takes away your flexibility in case of a serious injury to just release the player a year early, but has no parallel upside.  

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No. The $5.93 mm MLBTR number was a joke.  Alex Cobb was a very comparable case when he was with the Rays, and he got a $200 k raise in Arb 3 after making only 5 starts in Arb 2 after returning from TJ surgery the previous season. 

For the life of me, I have no idea why people are consistently quoting what MLBTR says for these numbers.  I even see national writers quote them and heard some hosts on MLB radio saying it the other day too. 

Edited January 11 by Sports Guy