One possible reason Elias has not made a big trade...

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree …. It’s my general feeling that Elias is equivalent to a hoarder. If it was just Cease then it’s possible to put all the blame on Getz. But, he was chincy getting a rotation upgrade at the deadline picking up a mid 4 ERA pitcher. There are other guys he could reasonably get if he was willing to deal some real value. I’m not suggesting 3 or 4 of out top prospects but should be able to get that mid rotation or better guy with of them as a centerpiece.

Weve heard Holiday was untouchable, heard similar things this past season that another guy or two was on that list. Now there are rumors about teams interested in Basallo and no interest in moving him. I have to think every prospect about Ortiz is probably on that list.

No. 1, you are supposing a whole lot about who Elias is or isn’t willing to trade.  No. 2, to call him a “hoarder” implies he is acting irrationally.   I strongly disagree with that characterization.   

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

Obviously I have defer to Tony, who’s watched a lot of minor league games and film, and talked to scouts.   But from what I saw of Kjerstad last spring training, he’s a perfectly adequate major league RF.   I wouldn’t hold him back from the majors to get him more experience in RF.  Now, if they want him to work on 1B, I could see having him do that in the minors.  

While I do think Kjerstad is a below average RFer overall, I don't think he's unplayable there. I wish there was a little more arm for RF and he doesn't have the jumps or top end speed to make up for it to play left field in Camden Yards. 

I wish he would have shown a little better at 1B because that would be a nice fit if he could hold his own there, but he looked pretty unplayable there in the minors.

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

It says Posted November 13, 2022.  Maybe I'm missing something?

"Defensively, he did improve some at second base, but he's still a below average defender on the dirt. He did turn the double play better and he's got average second base arm strength but his accuracy is not always there especially when he has to throw hard on a play. He gets caught in short hops too often he seems to occasionally lose focus on making simple catches or pop ups.. He committed 16 errors this year in just 105 games at second base."

 

 

[Roll Tide]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No. 1, you are supposing a whole lot about who Elias is or isn’t willing to trade.  No. 2, to call him a “hoarder” implies he is acting irrationally.   I strongly disagree with that characterization.   

All he could manage to get done to help our rotation was Jack Freakin Flaherty. You can’t possibly believe that was all that was available or the best he could do? 

Well, we can agree to disagree 

Further, we are facing log jams at the majors. If we aren’t dealing Ortiz, Norby, Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers, they need to be on the team with opportunities to get ABs more than 1 to 2 times per week. We hurt Ortiz and Stowers growth in 2023 with that approach. To do that you have to get the guys off the roster who are blocking these guys. 
 

We are 30 days to camp opening and nothing has been done. Except adding an old closer that Phillies fans were happy to see go whose best days are long gone.
 

 

 

Edited January 21 by Roll Tide

[Ohfan67]

On 1/20/2024 at 7:41 AM, Greg Pappas said:

...is that he considers none of our best young players or prospects as truly expendable... YET. 

Obviously, current studs Henderson (22.7) and Rutschman (26.1) will not be dealt.

• Holliday (20.3)  is the game's top prospect and is about as untouchable as one would expect.  While he shows promise at SS, he currently projects as our future 2B.  I suspect he'll start the season splitting action at 2B and SS in Norfolk and take over at 2B in Baltimore as soon as he's deemed ready.  With that said, we shouldn't discount the possibility of him breaking camp with the big club. 
• Westburg (25.1) is a promising player and is expected to be our starting 2B or 3B, pending a number of scenarios. Perhaps he's not expendable without knowing whether Holliday breaks camp with us at 2B, or even Mayo at 3B.  Neither seems likely.  Gunnar could move to 3B with Ortiz taking over at SS, but, again, it's not currently known how things will shake out.  Until that shaking occurs, Westburg seems valuable moving forward, especially if Mayo shows no improvement at 3B, coupled with Gunnar remaining at SS.  Westburg could be a super utility guy as soon as some point later this season, though if he has no starting spot, his trade availability increases.
• Ortiz (25.7) has nothing left to prove at AAA.  As noted above, he may be our new SS, pushing Gunnar over to 3B.  However, with Gunnar establishing himself as a quality defender at SS, it's not yet clear whether the O's would seek to move him for Ortiz.  While Ortiz could start at 2B,  it would be reasonable to expect that he'd instead be inserted as our starting SS.  Some point out that Ortiz can handle 3B as well, making him a possible utility guy, but one might think that his value as a major league ready starting SS would be better utilized in trade.
•  Mayo (22.3) is rightfully among the top prospects in the game, mostly based on his middle-of-the-order offensive profile.  The unknown is his defensive position.  He has come up as a 3B in the minors, with some time at 1B and RF as well. Determining his defensive home will be is among the more interesting storylines for the upcoming season.  Some hope that will be at 3B, though even the kindest estimates have him as average at best.  RF or 1B seem like solid alternatives, with his rocket arm probably best served in RF.  1B could be in play with neither Mountcastle or O'Hearn  secure at 1B in the long term.  Like the others listed here, Mayo is one of many puzzle pieces with currently unknown destinations.
• Basallo (19.6) is unlikely to factor into our plans this season, but as yet another great top prospect, his meteoric ascension may show no signs of slowing.  Even with Rutschman securely entrenched at catcher, Basallo could push for inclusion on the team by year's end.  I wouldn't go so far as to call him untouchable, but he's special enough for that to be given serious consideration.
• Norby (23.8) has a bat that seems ready for the big leagues, but with no obvious defensive home, his future in Baltimore is muddied.  He can play 2B in a pinch but would not be an option there long term, and may be destined to be a DH/LF.  Of all of our prospects, Norby stands out as the one that actually is expendable, but he alone may not be able to bring back the sort of difference maker we'd want.
• Kjerstad (25.1) and Cowser (24.0) are both ready for the show and with the entire outfield's future in doubt, there are opportunities for both. With that said, Kjerstad's defense in RF could push him to DH/1B.  Cowser seems primed to push Hays for playing time in LF, and while Mullins has no heir in CF and may remain until Bradfield is deemed ready, Cowser may see time there as well.  Santander seems secure as our starting RF, but as a FA at year's end, it's not out of the realm of possibility to see him dealt.

*ages as of opening day are listed in parentheses

Based on these many scenarios, things may become more clear this Spring, enabling Elias to pull off a big deal, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him waiting until the deadline to pull the trigger.  Thoughts?

How many premium prospects who have an impactful career are still at AAA at age 25? The clock is beginning to tick very loudly for some of these guys. Isn’t the average peak performance for position players like 27?

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

All he could manage to get done to help our rotation was Jack Freakin Flaherty. You can’t possibly believe that was all that was available or the best he could do? 

Well, we can agree to disagree 

Further, we are facing log jams at the majors. If we aren’t dealing Ortiz, Norby, Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers, they need to be on the team with opportunities to get ABs more than 1 to 2 times per week. We hurt Ortiz and Stowers growth in 2023 with that approach. To do that you have to get the guys off the roster who are blocking these guys. 
 

We are 30 days to camp opening and nothing has been done. Except adding an old closer that Phillies fans were happy to see go whose best days are long gone.
 

 

 

Ever other starting pitcher that was moved was available as was ERod.

[Roll Tide]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ever other starting pitcher that was moved was available as was ERod.

I agree … we could outbid almost anyone. Elias chose not to and instead when cheap with a SP that was bad and he came here and did worse. There is simple no excuse. I’m surprised that @Frobby is so content. I think Elias is far too conservative and I wish we knew how much payroll he was authorized to add. 

[SemperFi]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

While I do think Kjerstad is a below average RFer overall, I don't think he's unplayable there. I wish there was a little more arm for RF and he doesn't have the jumps or top end speed to make up for it to play left field in Camden Yards. 

I wish he would have shown a little better at 1B because that would be a nice fit if he could hold his own there, but he looked pretty unplayable there in the minors.

But I believe you have noted the accuracy of his arm-to measure an OF arm simply on velocity (only measure I see) is shortsided in my view.  While he may not have the desired arm velocity for RF accuracy is critical in relays where the transfer is as important (or more so) than speed.  For an average MLB player running at 27 feet per second a poor transfer costing .1 of a second that would equate to almost 3 feet-a huge difference. "The importance of accuracy goes without saying. The ability to hit cutoff men and throw to bases is more important than throwing with max velocity from the outfield. Any scout and coach will say they prefer 85 mph and accurate over 92 mph and wild".  Another young Orioles OF who has a stronger arm IMO struggled with accuracy and it was frustrating to watch IF's have to adjust to relays that were off target.  

I don't want to give the impression that I am discounting your scouting take-especially since you have seen much more of him than any of us-and frankly I value your input more than national scouting write ups-I just think that people often value velocity over accuracy and that's a facile argument.

https://redseamplanet.com/outfield-arm-strength-what-is-good-velo-at-every-level/

 

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree … we could outbid almost anyone. Elias chose not to and instead when cheap with a SP that was bad and he came here and did worse. There is simple no excuse. I’m surprised that @Frobby is so content. I think Elias is far too conservative and I wish we knew how much payroll he was authorized to add. 

Being content is one thing, calling Elias a hoarder is another.  I already said I would trade Cowser/Kjerstad, Ortiz and maybe a third piece for Cease.  I believe you were the one saying that’s too much.  So apparently you just want Elias to pull a rabbit out of a hat, and if he doesn’t, he’s a hoarder.   I don’t get it.  
 

[Roll Tide]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Being content is one thing, calling Elias a hoarder is another.  I already said I would trade Cowser/Kjerstad, Ortiz and maybe a third piece for Cease.  I believe you were the one saying that’s too much.  So apparently you just want Elias to pull a rabbit out of a hat, and if he doesn’t, he’s a hoarder.   I don’t get it.  
 

My proposed deal on their site initially was Cowser, Ortiz until it was obvious that they don’t like “Nicky” and his advanced age of 25, 26, or 27 depending on their poster. 
 

I don’t want Cease …. I don’t think his performance matches the underlying stats. I don’t like the high walk rate. And I’m not paying the TOR price tags that Getz is demanding. I would trade Cowser, Ortiz, plus for a good start with control. Think Marlins Braxton Garrett or Seattle’s George Kirby or Logan Gilbert. I’m not speculating exactly what it would take but those 2 players are a good start. 

Edited January 21 by Roll Tide

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

My proposed deal on their site initially was Cowser, Ortiz until it was obvious that they don’t like “Nicky” and his advanced age of 25, 26, or 27 depending on their poster. 
 

I don’t want Cease …. I don’t think his performance matches the underlying stats. I don’t like the high walk rate. And I’m not paying the TOR price tags that Getz is demanding. I would trade Cowser, Ortiz, plus for a good start with control. Think Marlins Braxton Garrett or Seattle’s George Kirby or Logan Gilbert. I’m not speculating exactly what it would take but those 2 players are a good start. 

Kirby and Garrett have 5 years of service time.  Gilbert has 4.  You think those guys are going to cost less than Cease?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

My proposed deal on their site initially was Cowser, Ortiz unity it was obvious that they don’t like “Nicky” and his advanced age of 25, 26, or 27 depending on their poster. 
 

I don’t want Cease …. I don’t think his performance matches the underlying stats. I don’t like the high walk rate. And I’m not paying the TOR price tags that Getz is demanding. I would trade Cowser, Ortiz, plus for a good start with control. Think Marlins Braxton Garrett or Seattle’s George Kirby or Logan Gilbert. I’m not speculating exactly what it would take but those 2 players are a good start. 

I don’t think you’d get a pitcher like that for a package that leads with those two (or Kjerstad instead of Cowser).  

[wildbillhiccup]

31 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Kirby and Garrett have 5 years of service time.  Gilbert has 4.  You think those guys are going to cost less than Cease?

He doesn't think (before he posts). That's the problem. And his obsession with Braxton Garrett is almost as frightening as his obsession with Sports Guy. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Kirby and Garrett have 5 years of service time.  Gilbert has 4.  You think those guys are going to cost less than Cease?

I didn’t say that 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

He doesn't think (before he posts). That's the problem. And his obsession with Braxton Garrett is almost as frightening as his obsession with Sports Guy. 

Your a troll