What if Holliday is sent down?

[oriolediehard]

I sure hope the new owner will extend our best players to keep us a dynasty.  I think Holiday will be among the best in the MLB and after 6 years be will be very hard if possible to sign.

[emmett16]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

A draft pick is not more valuable than a 7th season of Holliday in his prime…whether it’s because he’s playing for us or we trade him because we can’t sign him.

That extra year is extremely valuable.

I'd rather they do what they can to forge a long-term relationship and sign him for 3 of his FA years.  Putting him on the OD roster and presenting him with a legit long-term contract, that is hard to refuse, does that. 

[emmett16]

37 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I want the extra year.  Particularly when it means that Mayo or Cowser could make the team.  

If we did not have other great options for our 25 man roster, I would look at it a little differently.  

There is too much to gain and too little to lose by sending Holliday down to Norfolk for a few weeks. 

 

The AL East is going to be an absolute dog fight.  It will likely come down to 1 or 2 games.  I'd say there is a ton to lose by not fielding your best team out of the gate. 

Edited March 6 by emmett16

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Okay.  He still gains a full service year this year if he places top two in ROY.  How confident are you that won’t happen?

Would be pretty sweet if they send him down for a month and then the O's miss the playoffs by a game.

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Sure, but we won't get the draft pick if he stays down for a few weeks and then wins ROTY I don't believe.  That's one of the ways that it's supposed to be more enticing to start these guys in the Majors.  It makes no sense to send him down for a few weeks to gain the service time... he could gain it back and we actually lose out in the long run. 

Ah, I forgot about that. Hm, yeah, tempting to go for it. If he struggles he could always be sent down for a bit and we get the service time.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

The AL East is going to be an absolute dog fight.  It will likely come down to 1 or 2 games.  I'd say there is a ton to lose, but not fielding your best team out of the gate. 

I think you have folks here that are just assuming that the O's are guaranteed a playoff spot. 

The Padres missed the playoffs last year, the Mets finished under .500.

 

[deward]

2 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

It's far from a lock Jackson wins ROY even if he is as good as advertised. Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford are studs.

DraftKings has the odds at 

Holliday +250

Carter +300

Langford + 550

(Kjerstad is listed as 9th at +2200)

He doesn't have to win to get credit for a full year of service time, he just needs to be in the top 2. If the only reason he gets sent down is to game the service time, then he'll be down for a couple of months, at least, to try and avoid that scenario. It makes no sense for Elias to expose the org to another Adley-type situation. Either Holliday makes the team, or we don't see him until June. Even then, if he kills it and another candidate stumbles, there's still risk. 

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would be pretty sweet if they send him down for a month and then the O's miss the playoffs by a game.

I couldn't justify upvoting "would be pretty sweet if.....the O's miss the playoffs by a game" - but this is the main point to me.  It very likely comes down to one game this year.  Every game is going to count, and we need to have the best guys making a contribution.  There is a time to be frugal and manipulate service time, right now is not that time.  If you want the guy here more than 6 years, pay him for his services and don't be a cheapskate.  

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

As it pertains to #2..you said that if they don’t keep him, it’s because they don’t think he’s the best option and that service time won’t have anything to do with it.

So you are saying that if they don’t keep him, it’s because they feel Urias is the better guy for now.

Thats 100% not true. Zero chance they believe that. If he isn’t on the roster on OD, it’s for one reason and only reason only (assuming he doesn’t get hurt) and that’s service time.

I am saying if they think he needs more time Elias won’t like the risk involved in doing it for any other reason that he needs time. If he goes down he almost has to stay long enough to not have a chance to be in the top two for ROY.  
 

So again, I think he makes the team, but I don’t think the primary answer if he goes down would be service time. I think the downside risk there is larger than the benefits. 

[CaptDbog]

As an O's fan, I want long term sustained success. I support keeping Holiday down in the minors to gain an additional year of service time.  Trade value will be higher in the future because of that.  At the end of the day, Elias knows what he is doing and I trust him. 

[TommyPickles]

I 100% expect Holliday to begin the year in AAA. I think the decision will be driven by the extra year of service time, even though you can't say this part outloud. And, at this point, I'm fine with it. Not thrilled, but fine with it.

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I thought that prior.  I think 4-6.  There's still a risk, but it's worth it imo.

Yea, 6 weeks puts him in that Adley range. You probably can argue that he has more competition for top 2 this year than Adley had. 
 

The other thing with 4-6 weeks is that also likely means he’s a super 2. Not definite but likely.(especially if it’s more like 4 weeks)

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I'd rather they do what they can to forge a long-term relationship and sign him for 3 of his FA years.  Putting him on the OD roster and presenting him with a legit long-term contract, that is hard to refuse, does that. 

I’m 100% on board with this. I still say no way he turns down a 9/110ish deal right now.  To me, that is the best and correct thing to do. I just don’t see it happening.

[emmett16]

 

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m 100% on board with this. I still say no way he turns down a 9/110ish deal right now.  To me, that is the best and correct thing to do. I just don’t see it happening.

Sadly I agree, but hey, you know, pigs do fly

Edited March 6 by emmett16

[TommyPickles]

People are asking what do we get if he starts the year in AAA but comes up and wins ROY anyway?

We get the ROY. We get a team that cruises to a second consecutive division title and is probably a favorite to make it to the World Series when the playoffs begin.

Holliday coming up and putting up a 4-5 WAR season as a 20-year old would be great and he'd deserve the full year of service time.