What if Holliday is sent down?

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m 100% on board with this. I still say no way he turns down a 9/110ish deal right now.  To me, that is the best and correct thing to do. I just don’t see it happening.

What's the max years/dollars you'd do?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, TommyPickles said:

People are asking what do we get if he starts the year in AAA but comes up and wins ROY anyway?

We get the ROY. We get a team that cruises to a second consecutive division title and is probably a favorite to make it to the World Series when the playoffs begin.

Holliday coming up and putting up a 4-5 WAR season as a 20-year old would be great and he'd deserve the full year of service time.

We might get that.

We might not.

If Holliday puts up a 5 Win season while the pitching falls apart they ain't cursing to a division title.

[TommyPickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

We might get that.

We might not.

If Holliday puts up a 5 Win season while the pitching falls apart they ain't cursing to a division title.

That's fair. We don't know. But I think if Holliday puts up a 4-5 WAR season, it will significantly increase our odds. The would be a dream scenario for the 2024 season in a vacuum. 

[Orioles0615]

8 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

People are asking what do we get if he starts the year in AAA but comes up and wins ROY anyway?

We get the ROY. We get a team that cruises to a second consecutive division title and is probably a favorite to make it to the World Series when the playoffs begin.

Holliday coming up and putting up a 4-5 WAR season as a 20-year old would be great and he'd deserve the full year of service time.

We arern't cruiseing to anything if the plan to replace Bradish and Means is Julio Tehran and then pray and hope. 

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

That's fair. We don't know. But I think if Holliday puts up a 4-5 WAR season, it will significantly increase our odds. The would be a dream scenario for the 2024 season in a vacuum. 

I think people are sleeping on the Yankees a bit, they are a sleeping giant.  The Rays & Jays are both going to be really good.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Part of showing you belong at that age is that stuff though.

Moose, correctly, was asking when do ST stats count and when do they not count. He’s right. This is more about getting some hits in a SSS. How is acting? Does he look overwhelmed? Does he have a sense of entitlement and a bad attitude? Need maturity?  All of that matters. 
 

Now, maybe you aren’t worried about that because you feel all of those things are good for him (I happen to feel that way) but they are definitely factors in this decision.

Yes, my point was that the attitude and body language type stuff has never been in question with Holliday.   So it’s just a matter of whether he’s ready to hit and defend better than the other candidates.    

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

I think people are sleeping on the Yankees a bit, they are a sleeping giant.  The Rays & Jays are both going to be really good.  

They added a 5 win a year player, I don't think that counts as sleeping.

[dystopia]

5 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

We arern't cruiseing to anything if the plan to replace Bradish and Means is Julio Tehran and then pray and hope. 

It's not. Irvin and Wells are the replacements and Bradish and Means are both expected back in the first half.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

What's the max years/dollars you'd do?

Well years isn’t really about us…it’s about him right?  How many of those FA years does he want to give up?

Now, it could also be structured to be like the Witt contract where he essentially gets several option years.

Lets just say you bring him up from day 1 this year and he is here to stay.

3 years of league minimum and then 3 more years where he probably makes somewhere between 40-55M. 

On the low end, that has him in the are of 6/42ish and on the high end of 6/58ish.

That means he is a FA for his age 27 season. I can’t imagine he will be willing to give up more than 3 FA years and 3 may be tough. 
 

So, (changing what I said in the original post because I was just throwing something out there) I think an 8 year deal for 110-120M is something he just can’t and wouldn’t turn down. That is essentially guaranteeing him high end money for this time period and it allows him to be a FA at a prime time of his career.  If you could extend it to 9/150, that’s cool too but I think that’s stretching it, at least in terms of a guarantee..like I said, maybe you can get player options.

[Jammer7]

I chose #3. I think he has been pressing somewhat. Super talented kid, obviously. They want him to break camp with the team, and I believe he will, unless there is some kind of injury or setback. He has had several at bats recently where he looked caught in between. He is going through a huge learning curve, and he looked pretty good against Wheeler and the Phils yesterday.

I am not worried about the results, but the process is key for me. As long as he does not look completely lost, he should break camp as a big leaguer. He will catch up at the big league level. The pressure will be immense, but he can handle it with his support network.

I try not to get too wrapped up in this. Maybe get a pick, or get an extra year of a kid we probably won’t re-sign. Not my problem to worry about. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well years isn’t really about us…it’s about him right?  How many of those FA years does he want to give up?

Now, it could also be structured to be like the Witt contract where he essentially gets several option years.

Lets just say you bring him up from day 1 this year and he is here to stay.

3 years of league minimum and then 3 more years where he probably makes somewhere between 40-55M. 

On the low end, that has him in the are of 6/42ish and on the high end of 6/58ish.

That means he is a FA for his age 27 season. I can’t imagine he will be willing to give up more than 3 FA years and 3 may be tough. 
 

So, (changing what I said in the original post because I was just throwing something out there) I think an 8 year deal for 110-120M is something he just can’t and wouldn’t turn down. That is essentially guaranteeing him high end money for this time period and it allows him to be a FA at a prime time of his career.  If you could extend it to 9/150, that’s cool too but I think that’s stretching it, at least in terms of a guarantee..like I said, maybe you can get player options.

Right on, those are about the numbers/years I was thinking, too.  I wouldn't want to go higher than 150 or more than 9 years.

If we want him to give up FA years, it'd have to be well worth it for him.  But opt-outs are probably a good bargaining chip for him, too.  Lots of possbilities.

I'd really like it if they could extend Gunnar and Holliday.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

A draft pick is not more valuable than a 7th season of Holliday in his prime…whether it’s because he’s playing for us or we trade him because we can’t sign him.

That extra year is extremely valuable.

I wonder if we could just do a seven year deal. Wouldn't preclude us from extending another couple years later but for now it would eliminate the service time discussion and get him up to go for ROY and help the team now. We do take on some risk but we get the seventh year guaranteed.

[SilverRocket]

1 hour ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Sure, but we won't get the draft pick if he stays down for a few weeks and then wins ROTY I don't believe. 

Is this true? I thought the downside is that if they win ROY then they get the full year of service time regardless of when they're called up. I haven't read anything in articles about that affecting the draft pick, though the later they come up, the less likely they are to win ROY.

I'm not entirely convinced he's ready yet in his 22 PA. His numbers look good now, but he got a gift triple yesterday and before the game, his OPS was under .700. I see it as a 50-50 whether he makes the team and it'll become more evident once we have a couple more weeks of results to look at.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Right on, those are about the numbers/years I was thinking, too.  I wouldn't want to go higher than 150 or more than 9 years.

If we want him to give up FA years, it'd have to be well worth it for him.  But opt-outs are probably a good bargaining chip for him, too.  Lots of possbilities.

I'd really like it if they could extend Gunnar and Holliday.

Gunnar isn’t going to turn down a Witt like deal.  Get the 7 years guaranteed out of him and then player opt outs after that. 

[Pickles]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, 6 weeks puts him in that Adley range. You probably can argue that he has more competition for top 2 this year than Adley had. 
 

The other thing with 4-6 weeks is that also likely means he’s a super 2. Not definite but likely.(especially if it’s more like 4 weeks)

I also don't think he's near as read as Adley was to hit the ground running.