Could the Orioles be in on Jordan Montgomery after the season officially starts?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Are you sure? There a frequent posts that pop up and many posters backing approaches to how the org can spend as little as possible yet remain competitive. Some have even taken to calling it a “Raysian model” or something similar. From my perspective, this opinion and approach is very popular on this board. 

Signing Montgomery would not really be in line with that approach.

I think it’s impossible to say that there’s a consensus view on OH about virtually anything.  But I think a significant majority think the O’s can and should spend more money than they’re spending now.  And what you are proposing is more realistic than signing some pitcher for 7 years, $250 mm or whatever.   

[Gilbutson]

36 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Not sure, but I know Will Smith (the reliever) has currently earned three straight WS rings with three different teams. Though he didn't actually appear in the Series for Houston in '22. 

Touché, I was about to say Corey Seager in 2020 and 2023 (which was at least close) but you definitely one upped me. 

Edited March 26 by Gilbutson

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s impossible to say that there’s a consensus view on OH about virtually anything.  But I think a significant majority think the O’s can and should spend more money than they’re spending now.  And what you are proposing is more realistic than signing some pitcher for 7 years, $250 mm or whatever.   

As important as starting pitchers are, it is hard to argue that any pitcher is worth the risk of a 7 year deal due to the high probably of injury with almost all pitchers.

I think as time goes on, we will see the game value pitching in a different manner with these high dollar shorter term contracts becoming much more common place. It just doesn't make sense to sign up for the long haul with pitchers when almost all of them break down.

But with a short term/opt out deal for Montgomery IMO we have far more to gain than to lose by adding him to our rotation in this manner.

[btdart20]

53 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

"All sorts of overpriced signings that Elias did over the last fews years"?? I struggle to name any, unless you think a one year 10 million dollar signing is overpriced. Can you offer a hand full of examples in terms of Elias signings that were overpriced?

Most people (here and pundits) said Elias overpaid for Lyles, Gibson, Frazier, and Givens.  None were 'blockbuster' but all were questioned.  None were signing elsewhere for anything close to what Elias signed them for.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Most people (here and pundits) said Elias overpaid for Lyles, Gibson, Frazier, and Givens.  None were 'blockbuster' but all were questioned.  None were signing elsewhere for anything close to what Elias signed them for.

None of those were consequential. Like what difference does it make if he gives someone 8 million for a season instead of 6 or 5.5? None of those players moved the needle in the slightest, though all but Givens had a few moments here and there.

Jordan Montgomery will be a needle moving acquisition that will come at a serious price. But he is the type of guy to help us into October like he just did for the Rangers. Kyle Gibson's team (from the season before we acquired him) removed him from the rotation when October began. Big difference IMO.

[Tony-OH]

Not a lot connecting Montgomery to the Orioles at MLBRumors.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/players/jordan-montgomery

Just to be clear, I think this is a fluid situation and while Montgomery makes perfect sense for this rotation, having the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets in on him does not make me feel good that the Orioles will sign him. The only real hope is Rubenstein wants to make that initial splash as owner, which could be the reason Montgomery has not signed yet. But that last part is speculation by me, not based on anything I've heard.

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

None of those were consequential. Like what difference does it make if he gives someone 8 million for a season instead of 6 or 5.5? None of those players moved the needle in the slightest, though all but Givens had a few moments here and there.

Jordan Montgomery will be a needle moving acquisition that will come at a serious price. But he is the type of guy to help us into October like he just did for the Rangers. Kyle Gibson's team (from the season before we acquired him) removed him from the rotation when October began. Big difference IMO.

All of them were over-payments.  Elias has shown a willingness to over pay for certain players (stats?).

The big difference is track record.  Montgomery has a higher probability of success over one year than Lyles or Gibson.  Pitchers with a better track record tend to cost more, especially years.  But the market hasn't rewarded Montgomery with multiple years so far.  Seems like the market is shifting toward how Elias has already risk-adjusted SP value.  

If Montgomery is willing to sign for 1-2 years, that's got to be viewed favorably by the SigBot. 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

I love the thought of Burnes long-term but I believe you mentioned the Rodon contract as a possible structure for an extension (6/$162m) earlier in this thread. I think that's way too light for Burnes, especially if he has the type of season we're hoping for. I think Burnes may very well command a 6-8 year deal in the mid $30m-$40m range, and that that will be too rich to realistically pursue. 

Agreed Burnes goes past Rodon, even with a just okay for him kind of season.    I was just using Rodon 162 as a shorthand for the 2nd best US FA pitcher contract, though I was forgetting deGrom 185 there.  I'm here for Burnes' 2024 performance taking the train all the way to Cole-ville.

There's a lot of space between Gerrit 324 and deGrom 185 for a typical US guy reaching free agency in Cy Young mode.

Dombrowski just guaranteed Wheeler 3 x 42 for his age 35-37 seasons a year away from FA.    Burnes I think will go more years, less AAV, perhaps taking more AAV for less years if Mike Elias' Baltimore experience is in the mix.

He's 29 now in his walk year - if FA Contract 1 covers 30-35, ~6/255 are round numbers vaguely around Wheeler's old guy AAV on the Rodon young guy term of contract.    Maybe 5/225 or 4/200 is the Elias angle if Burnes can thrive in the AL East, and makes the kind of memories he can only expect to repeat with this roster nucleus.

I'd agree its a small enough chance I'd be glad if we locked in Montgomery now even if it probably allocates any Burnes bid resources Elias is considering recommending to Rubenstein.

[interloper]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not a lot connecting Montgomery to the Orioles at MLBRumors.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/players/jordan-montgomery

Just to be clear, I think this is a fluid situation and while Montgomery makes perfect sense for this rotation, having the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets in on him does not make me feel good that the Orioles will sign him. The only real hope is Rubenstein wants to make that initial splash as owner, which could be the reason Montgomery has not signed yet. But that last part is speculation by me, not based on anything I've heard.

I think no matter who he signs with, once he got to a certain point in the offseason, it only made sense to wait until the season began. 

[George Zuverink]

16 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

All of them were over-payments.  

[ThisIsBirdland]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Agreed Burnes goes past Rodon, even with a just okay for him kind of season.    I was just using Rodon 162 as a shorthand for the 2nd best US FA pitcher contract, though I was forgetting deGrom 185 there.  I'm here for Burnes' 2024 performance taking the train all the way to Cole-ville.

There's a lot of space between Gerrit 324 and deGrom 185 for a typical US guy reaching free agency in Cy Young mode.

Dombrowski just guaranteed Wheeler 3 x 42 for his age 35-37 seasons a year away from FA.    Burnes I think will go more years, less AAV, perhaps taking more AAV for less years if Mike Elias' Baltimore experience is in the mix.

He's 29 now in his walk year - if FA Contract 1 covers 30-35, ~6/255 are round numbers vaguely around Wheeler's old guy AAV on the Rodon young guy term of contract.    Maybe 5/225 or 4/200 is the Elias angle if Burnes can thrive in the AL East, and makes the kind of memories he can only expect to repeat with this roster nucleus.

I'd agree its a small enough chance I'd be glad if we locked in Montgomery now even if it probably allocates any Burnes bid resources Elias is considering recommending to Rubenstein.

"I'm here for Burnes' 2024 performance taking the train all the way to Cole-ville."

This is one of my favorite @Just Regularisms to date.

The Strasburg contract is hanging out there too. I think the pitching deals in that tier (anything greater than 5 years at an extreme AAV) carry too much risk, even for someone like Burnes. Again, it's why I like the Bassitt mold for guys who are consistent but not necessarily guys who will get NY and LA to engage in a bidding war on.

The Gausman and Castillo deals are looking pretty good right now, and I don't fault anyone for thinking Montgomery should slot below their deals (5/$110m).

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

As important as starting pitchers are, it is hard to argue that any pitcher is worth the risk of a 7 year deal due to the high probably of injury with almost all pitchers.

I think as time goes on, we will see the game value pitching in a different manner with these high dollar shorter term contracts becoming much more common place. It just doesn't make sense to sign up for the long haul with pitchers when almost all of them break down.

But with a short term/opt out deal for Montgomery IMO we have far more to gain than to lose by adding him to our rotation in this manner.

I agree about pitchers being over priced. They are part time players who only play for a small portion of a game and only play once in 5 games. And that's if we're taling starters and good pitchers.

At least with a good position player you know you are going to see him go to work just about every game and you have a bigger chance of getting a valuable return on your investment.

Switching to another thought... I would like to see Montgomery but not at the expense of not being able to persue a contract for Corbin Burnes in what will probably be a competitive market for gis services if he has a good season (like we hope he will].

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I agree about pitchers being over priced. They are part time players who only play for a small portion of a game and only play once in 5 games. And that's if we're taling starters and good pitchers.

At least with a good position player you know you are going to see him go to work just about every game and you have a bigger chance of getting a valuable return on your investment.

Switching to another thought... I would like to see Montgomery but not at the expense of not being able to persue a contract for Corbin Burnes in what will probably be a competitive market for gis services if he has a good season (like we hope he will].

Nice way to honor the memory of Peter Angelos 

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

All of them were over-payments.  Elias has shown a willingness to over pay for certain players (stats?).

The big difference is track record.  Montgomery has a higher probability of success over one year than Lyles or Gibson.  Pitchers with a better track record tend to cost more, especially years.  But the market hasn't rewarded Montgomery with multiple years so far.  Seems like the market is shifting toward how Elias has already risk-adjusted SP value.  

If Montgomery is willing to sign for 1-2 years, that's got to be viewed favorably by the SigBot. 

What you are talking about is the willingness to slightly overpay for inconsequential players. I am talking about making a serious financial investment for players who actually matter and make a difference when the season is at it’s most crucial juncture.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I agree about pitchers being over priced. They are part time players who only play for a small portion of a game and only play once in 5 games. And that's if we're taling starters and good pitchers.

At least with a good position player you know you are going to see him go to work just about every game and you have a bigger chance of getting a valuable return on your investment.

Switching to another thought... I would like to see Montgomery but not at the expense of not being able to persue a contract for Corbin Burnes in what will probably be a competitive market for gis services if he has a good season (like we hope he will].

The price is not the issue in terms of dollar amount, we have it to pay. We haven’t paid anyone in years. For me, it’s the risk of the amount of years on the contract when there is a high probably that the pitcher will break down/suffer injury.

I also don’t agree with your valuation of starting pitchers, they are extremely valuable come October as we saw last season.