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Austin Hays 2024

ShoelesJoe

By ShoelesJoe
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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He had a nice stretch of 90 PA from Aug 16 through Sept 12 of last year. Outside of that stretch, he has been awful.

Since July 1 of last year, Hays has 313 PA. His slash line is 206/268/339/607.  That is despite a 943 OPS in those aforementioned 90 PA.

Essentially, he has been Jorge Mateo for half a season worth of at bats.

So yea, he has largely been terrible for the last 3.5 months of play.  He was good for less than a 1/3 of that time.

 

The first half of August last year was propped up by a 4 hit game and a 2 hit game where he had a double and homer. The rest of that stretch of games he was awful and even including those games, in a sampling of 48 PA from Aug 1-16, he had a 244 BA to go along with a sub 300 OBP. His slugging was 422 but again, that was really from those 2 games. His wRC+ was 91.

From Sept 13 through the end of the season, his slash line was 160/250/280.  That was over 58 PA.

Now, that is definitely manipulating numbers. That being said, despite that excellent 90 at bat stretch that he had plus the other 4 hit and 2 hit game in the first half of August, his OPS is still barely over 600 over a substantial 300+ PA stretch.  Considering how good that stretch + those games were, for his OPS to be that, shows you how bad he was the other 71% of the time.

Thats pretty brutal baseball.

Now, I think he will be fine and he will end up around where we expect him to be but this isn’t just a this year thing. He has largely not been good for about 71% of the time over the last 3.5 months.  Like I said, he has basically been Jorge Mateo for half a season but his defense isn’t as good and he doesn’t have that speed.

And he has high end talent knocking down the door right behind him so he better start getting hot soon or may really find himself on thin ice.

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Natty
Natty

Hays since the All-Star break... .222 BA .286 OBP. 

ShoelesJoe
ShoelesJoe

Four games into the season he's batting  .133 / .235 / .133, two singles, two walks, and four strike outs. This is obviously a small sample, but the worse news is that in his last 81 games Hays is bat

interloper
interloper

Apparently not enough to know how to spell his name. 😉

Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

My takeaway from the discussion about Hays' numbers last year is that he's a very streaky hitter.  Right now he's in a slump.  He's likely to turn it around.   

Yep. I think that’s the best way to look at it. This slump is a little more prolonged overall though, that’s the only real issue.

But at the end of the day, unless you think his skills have completely eroded, this should be looked at as you state.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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Right now Hays is in McKenna's role but will probably get a little more PAs once summer gets here and players start to wear down a bit. 

His only way out is for him to start hitting and either Santander or Cowser to go into a long funk themselves. There is no doubt Cowser is an everyday guy now in the Orioles mind. 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Re the “carry over from last year” argument, I was thinking today about Luke Scott in 2009-10.   In 2009, Scott had a .957 OPS at the all star break, but slumped horribly after that and posted a .667 the rest of that season.  Then he had a horrible first 5 weeks in 2010, and as of May 4, had a .604 OPS.  We were hearing all the exact same arguments about how Scott’s bad start was tied to his poor finish in 2009 and spelled long term doom.  Zap - Scott then posted a .964 OPS for the rest of the season.   

I'm not saying this will happen with Hays, but it’s an example of why I don’t buy the “carry over” argument.  
 

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The B&G Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

The B&G

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1 hour ago, dystopia said:

The problem is finding playing time for him. Can’t take Cowser out of the lineup. 

Yep, I think Cowser did Hyde a favor there. If not for Cowser's hot streak, I doubt we would have seen a full platoon take place until mid-summer. Obviously Hays made it a lot easier too with his awful start.

This worked out perfectly imo, I was nervous Cowser wouldn't get a true shot due to Hyde's loyalty to veterans, but now Cowser has forced the issue and should be a full time player for the foreseeable future. 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Re the “carry over from last year” argument, I was thinking today about Luke Scott in 2009-10.   In 2009, Scott had a .957 OPS at the all star break, but slumped horribly after that and posted a .667 the rest of that season.  Then he had a horrible first 5 weeks in 2010, and as of May 4, had a .604 OPS.  We were hearing all the exact same arguments about how Scott’s bad start was tied to his poor finish in 2009 and spelled long term doom.  Zap - Scott then posted a .964 OPS for the rest of the season.   

I'm not saying this will happen with Hays, but it’s an example of why I don’t buy the “carry over” argument.  
 

Im Not sure there is a carryover effect either but I also think it’s fair to say, this isn’t just a few week issue either.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Im Not sure there is a carryover effect either but I also think it’s fair to say, this isn’t just a few week issue either.

No carr

 

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Im Not sure there is a carryover effect either but I also think it’s fair to say, this isn’t just a few week issue either.

 

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Im Not sure there is a carryover effect either but I also think it’s fair to say, this isn’t just a few week issue either.

No carryover affect but this is a continuing problem from last season.  Classic SG double talk.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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9 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Hyde in postgame presser said calf tightness, and exit was precautionary.

Wonder if they IL him as a precaution and allow him to get some low stress rehab at bats and get Kjerstad up here all at the same time.

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dystopia Veteran All-Star

dystopia

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wonder if they IL him as a precaution and allow him to get some low stress rehab at bats and get Kjerstad up here all at the same time.

I really hope they do this, though Hays had some decent swings last night.

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 4/18/2024 at 2:17 PM, Tony-OH said:

Right now Hays is in McKenna's role but will probably get a little more PAs once summer gets here and players start to wear down a bit. 

His only way out is for him to start hitting and either Santander or Cowser to go into a long funk themselves. There is no doubt Cowser is an everyday guy now in the Orioles mind. 

I’ve said before …the low OBP guys will be weeded out as the better players come up. Hays was never going to be long term. 

Edited by Roll Tide
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