Austin Hays 2024

[Billy F-Face3]

I haven't looked into Mayo but people on the message board who seem pretty knowledgeable was saying he has a high strikeout rate. Which would suggest he's still got some fine tuning and seasoning to do, if that's true.

And if that is true, my list of earned opportunity is something along these lines, but could change if they really insist on a right handed bat...

1.Kjerstad

2.Stowers *

3.Norby *

4.Mayo *

 

*Good for lineups vs left handed pitching

So if it's a right handed bat that's really needed, Connor Norby deserves a shot. He's had plenty enough seasoning in AAA and proved himself for the last couple seasons.

And let's also note the fact that Kyle Stowers has a career track record of being pretty decent against left handed pitching.

If Mountcastle and Hays can't play, and they don't want to play O'Hearn against LHP, then one option is to play Santander at 1B. Then add either Mateo, Stowers, or Kjerstad to the outfield. If you have Mateo (or even Westburg) in the outfield, that can open up a spot for Norby to play the infield vs LHP.

Westburg only has 6 career minor league games in the outfield. But that's better than nothing.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Stowers or Kjerstad? 

Finally nailed one!

[Billy F-Face3]

Ignore my last post. Apparently the front office were way ahead of me in that thought of call up ranking order.

[dystopia]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

That's the Austin we know and love.

[Moose Milligan]

Wouldn’t be an Orioles season without a massive slump and an injury. Got both out of the way in the first month of the season. 

[George Zuverink]

20 minutes ago, dystopia said:

That's the Austin we know and love.

Unfortunate. He was just beginning to hit the ball hard from time to time.

[Frobby]

I’d say it’s as good a time as any for Hays to have a short IL stint.   Can’t take Cowser out of the lineup right now anyway.

[eddie83]

52 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Ignore my last post. Apparently the front office were way ahead of me in that thought of call up ranking order.

I think later on in year if Hays has issues it helps Mayo. I just think for now they want to use the last 40 man spot with someone who isn’t permanent 40 man player. 

[Filmstudy]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d say it’s as good a time as any for Hays to have a short IL stint.   Can’t take Cowser out of the lineup right now anyway.

With Hays on the 10-day IL, would you expect a rehab stint for Hays following the IL?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Filmstudy said:

With Hays on the 10-day IL, would you expect a rehab stint for Hays following the IL?

We don't know if Hays will be healthy in 10,

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

With Hays on the 10-day IL, would you expect a rehab stint for Hays following the IL?

If so, probably just for 2 days or so.  

[interloper]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d say it’s as good a time as any for Hays to have a short IL stint.   Can’t take Cowser out of the lineup right now anyway.

Yeah I was thinking this might be good for both the team and Hays. Chance for him to press the reset button if nothing else. 

[Filmstudy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

If so, probably just for 2 days or so.  

I'd handicap it differently, even though Austin hit the ball more solidly the last week.

After his 10-day stint on IL, I think there is perhaps a 85% chance he goes on rehab with the residual chance due to a gaping hole in the Orioles lineup/bench which has been exposed.

Assuming he goes on some form of rehab assignment, there are at least 3 groups I'd offer as qualitatively different outcomes:

1. He goes on rehab for 5 days or less and either a hole/spot develops or he starts hitting right away

2. He goes on rehab for between 6 and 20 days (max rehab time for a position player) and the Orioles use much more, if not all of the shot clock before making a decision.  It could be a matter of Hays not hitting particularly well in the minors or the Orioles playing well with everyone healthy.

3. The club reaches the end of 20 days and uses the remaining option on Hays to leave him there because the O's don't have room given the set of quality OF/DH/1B they have and don't have an easy roster move to make.  The Orioles may be forced to trade him if this occurs, but I would not be shocked if he returns when an injury opens up a spot.

Please let me know if you can think of any other possibilities that are not subsets of these 3 outcomes.

If I am handicapping the 3 options, I'd say it's:

Return to the big leagues immediately after 10 days: 15%

Short rehab assignment (option 1): 50%

Long rehab assignment (option 2): 25%

Optioned after rehab (option 3): 10%

Effectively, the Orioles will have already optioned Hays to the minors for a reset with option 2, but under the guise of the injury.  

I'd like to hear from as many other posters as would care to handicap these 4 outcomes.  Simply post your percentages for each of the 4. 

 

 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

I'd handicap it differently, even though Austin hit the ball more solidly the last week.

After his 10-day stint on IL, I think there is perhaps a 85% chance he goes on rehab with the residual chance due to a gaping hole in the Orioles lineup/bench which has been exposed.

Assuming he goes on some form of rehab assignment, there are at least 3 groups I'd offer as qualitatively different outcomes:

1. He goes on rehab for 5 days or less and either a hole/spot develops or he starts hitting right away

2. He goes on rehab for between 6 and 20 days (max rehab time for a position player) and the Orioles use much more, if not all of the shot clock before making a decision.  It could be a matter of Hays not hitting particularly well in the minors or the Orioles playing well with everyone healthy.

3. The club reaches the end of 20 days and uses the remaining option on Hays to leave him there because the O's don't have room given the set of quality OF/DH/1B they have and don't have an easy roster move to make.  The Orioles may be forced to trade him if this occurs, but I would not be shocked if he returns when an injury opens up a spot.

Please let me know if you can think of any other possibilities that are not subsets of these 3 outcomes.

If I am handicapping the 3 options, I'd say it's:

Return to the big leagues immediately after 10 days: 15%

Short rehab assignment (option 1): 50%

Long rehab assignment (option 2): 25%

Optioned after rehab (option 3): 10%

Effectively, the Orioles will have already optioned Hays to the minors for a reset with option 2, but under the guise of the injury.  

I'd like to hear from as many other posters as would care to handicap these 4 outcomes.  Simply post your percentages for each of the 4. 

 

 

Well, I think he’s legitimately injured and it’s not a “guise.”   With a veteran player, they usually give them just a few rehab games, especially if their injury didn’t keep them off the field long.  So I’d put the short rehab at 70%, long rehab 25%, option 5% (and that may be high).   I realize that Hays has hit very poorly, but I just don’t see the O’s putting him in the minors for any extended period.  He did seem to be swinging better over the few games prior to his injury.  

[Filmstudy]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I think he’s legitimately injured and it’s not a “guise.”   With a veteran player, they usually give them just a few rehab games, especially if their injury didn’t keep them off the field long.  So I’d put the short rehab at 70%, long rehab 25%, option 5% (and that may be high).   I realize that Hays has hit very poorly, but I just don’t see the O’s putting him in the minors for any extended period.  He did seem to be swinging better over the few games prior to his injury.  

I'm going to assume your "short rehab" includes the possibility he'll return to the O's without rehab at all.  If that's the case, our predictions of the outcomes are extremely close.

With regard to the use of the word "guise" I'm not suggesting that he's not hurt, but the fact he is means the Orioles have an excellent excuse (and one that is probably more palatable to Hays) to keep him in the minors for a reset.