Matthew Etzel 2024

[Tony-OH]

Results are all that matter from this point forward. While Bradfield will get the benefit of the doubt from a "prospect" standpoint by evaluators for a bit, if Etzel keeps out performing him he will get passed by.

I'm not ready to say Etzel is better than Bradfield by any stretch yet, but come talk to me after this season is over and I'll have a much better idea. As fast as Bradfield is and as good as his plate discipline is, I really would like to see him drive the ball more. While Etzel is not going to be big pop guy either, and he's probably better suited to a corner outfield position rather than center, he does show some ability to drive the ball a bit. 

Bradfield's GB rate is not sustainable no matter how fast he is because infielder's range and arms get much better than higher he goes up the chain.

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Results are all that matter from this point forward. While Bradfield will get the benefit of the doubt from a "prospect" standpoint by evaluators for a bit, if Etzel keeps out performing him he will get passed by.

I'm not ready to say Etzel is better than Bradfield by any stretch yet, but come talk to me after this season is over and I'll have a much better idea. As fast as Bradfield is and as good as his plate discipline is, I really would like to see him drive the ball more. While Etzel is not going to be big pop guy either, and he's probably better suited to a corner outfield position rather than center, he does show some ability to drive the ball a bit. 

Bradfield's GB rate is not sustainable no matter how fast he is because infielder's range and arms get much better than higher he goes up the chain.

Why do you say Etzel is more suited to a corner?  Pre draft reports considered him a CF as a pro.  
 

Baseball America

He’s more of a fringy hitter who hasn’t fully tapped into the impressive raw power that he has in the tank. Etzel is an above-average runner and impressed scouts with his defensive ability in center field this spring, and he also went 23-for-28 (82%) in stolen base attempts. Etzel fits as a day two prospect thanks to his center field profile and intriguing power/speed combo.

Edited April 10 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

32 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Why do you say Etzel is more suited to a corner?  Pre draft reports considered him a CF as a pro.  
 

Baseball America

He’s more of a fringy hitter who hasn’t fully tapped into the impressive raw power that he has in the tank. Etzel is an above-average runner and impressed scouts with his defensive ability in center field this spring, and he also went 23-for-28 (82%) in stolen base attempts. Etzel fits as a day two prospect thanks to his center field profile and intriguing power/speed combo.

Mostly from what I've heard from others more than what I've personally observed, though I wasn't blown away by his jumps or routes a few time I was able to catch them on videos. 

I don't want to make too definitive of a statement until I can get better eyes on.

[ChuckS]

5 for 5er today with a double and a SB. 

Could find himself in Bowie quickly. 

[Hank Scorpio]

26 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

5 for 5er today with a double and a SB. 

Could find himself in Bowie quickly. 

That’s good, right?

Good lord.

[Tony-OH]

Pretty darn good night for this young man. He's going to put himself on the prospect scene if he can make the jump to AA successfully this year. I need to go back and look at the video to see the hits, but nothing wrong with 5-for-5 nights.

[CaptainRedbeard]

While the Elias Orioles have been incredible at their hit rate for the prospects drafted in the first and other early rounds, they’ve yet to really hit a home run on a later round guy. Obviously those are much more rare but they do happen occasionally, and you’d expect an otherwise elite hitting development org to hit one eventually. Etzel is looking like he could be that first one. 

[interloper]

45 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

While the Elias Orioles have been incredible at their hit rate for the prospects drafted in the first and other early rounds, they’ve yet to really hit a home run on a later round guy. Obviously those are much more rare but they do happen occasionally, and you’d expect an otherwise elite hitting development org to hit one eventually. Etzel is looking like he could be that first one. 

Etzel is a good pick for a late round hit. I feel like we'll hit on a random pitcher from a later round. 

[George Zuverink]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

While the Elias Orioles have been incredible at their hit rate for the prospects drafted in the first and other early rounds, they’ve yet to really hit a home run on a later round guy. Obviously those are much more rare but they do happen occasionally, and you’d expect an otherwise elite hitting development org to hit one eventually. Etzel is looking like he could be that first one. 

Is 4th an early round? That’s where we got Coby Mayo.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Just now, George Zuverink said:

Is 4th an early round? That’s where we got Coby Mayo.

Mayo was 4th round but got a pretty big overslot bonus with the savings on underslot Kjerstad IIRC, so I wouldn’t count him the same. Ortiz in the 4th and Hernaiz in the 5th are probably the most successful later picks, no? Those are still much earlier compared to Etzel as a 10th rounder. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

29 minutes ago, interloper said:

Etzel is a good pick for a late round hit. I feel like we'll hit on a random pitcher from a later round. 

Totally, up until this last draft it seems like the philosophy was that pitchers have way more volatility so might as well hope you hit on the later picks. This past draft they used a lot more draft capital on pitchers throughout the whole draft so chances are probably improved that one will work out nicely.

[Sports Guy]

From Keith Law’s latest article:

Matthew Etzel needs to unlock his power potential

The Baltimore Orioles took outfielder Matthew Etzel in the 10th round last year as a bet on his athleticism. He’s a plus runner who scored extremely well for teams that rely on force-plate measurements as part of their evaluation process. I wrote last winter that he was “a big kid with a small, slappy swing,” and, well, that’s exactly what he is: He is a big, strong kid, and he swings very, very small. He’s a swing change waiting to happen, but at 22, he shouldn’t wait too much longer.

[Aristotelian]

I was just checking to see if there was a thread on him. .948 OPS playing CF is interesting. 22 years old, drafted with one year of college ball. Any reports on the defense? 

[Tony-OH]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

From Keith Law’s latest article:

Matthew Etzel needs to unlock his power potential

The Baltimore Orioles took outfielder Matthew Etzel in the 10th round last year as a bet on his athleticism. He’s a plus runner who scored extremely well for teams that rely on force-plate measurements as part of their evaluation process. I wrote last winter that he was “a big kid with a small, slappy swing,” and, well, that’s exactly what he is: He is a big, strong kid, and he swings very, very small. He’s a swing change waiting to happen, but at 22, he shouldn’t wait too much longer.

Hard to argue with that analysis from Law. I like Etzel, especially for a 10th round pick, but he's probably got more of a 4th outfielder vibe to him because of his lack of pop. I also want to see him against upper level pitching before getting too high on him. Also, while I do think he's a plus runner, he's not a burner. More like McKenna speed with better base stealing instincts.

[now]

With three more hits today, Etzel is at .360/.992. He has 171 MiLB at bats, so a third of a season. Which projects to a full season with: 

513 AB
111 R
39 2B
12 3B
12 HR
114 RBI
93 BB
123 SO
90 SB
21 CS
.339 AVG
.445 OBP
.532 SLG

Not too shabby!