Offense is down in MLB this year — but not in Baltimore

[Frobby]

I was looking at the O’s stat page and noticing how high all the OPS+ numbers are.  For example, Cedric Mullins has a .736 OPS but that’s good for a 116 OPS+ right now.  So, I looked around.  Right now, the MLB average OPS is .698.  That’s down from .734 last year, and (for those thinking of a “cold weather” explanation) from .726 last April.   

The O’s, on the other hand, have a .780 OPS, compared to .742 last year.  That’s 3rd in MLB and good for an MLB-leading 130 OPS+, compared to 107 last year.   

I’m not sure if the hot hitting will continue, but the team has had one heck of a start offensively, in a year where the league has been pretty cold.  

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

What's the run scored per game average in MLB now compared to this point last year?

[gamiliel]

That is good news, as we have plenty of offensive potential to trade for pitching!

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

What's the run scored per game average in MLB now compared to this point last year?

Last year average runs scored per game was 4.62 and this year it's 4.37 runs scored per game.

[btdart20]

All offseason some were fretting the 1-run wins, pythag, no Bautista, etc.  I didn't think it would be as crazy as our concerns because our hitters are on their ascent or have high floors.

Will the 2027 Orioles supplant the 1927 Yankee lore?  Let’s go!

[Bahama O's Fan]

I still feel like our offense isn't clicking on all cylinders yet. Santander has been down, Adley hasn't found alot of extra base power, Holliday has been a black hole so far, Hays was bad and now injured, Urias hasn't hit well.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I still feel like our offense isn't clicking on all cylinders yet. Santander has been down, Adley hasn't found alot of extra base power, Holliday has been a black hole so far, Hays was bad and now injured, Urias hasn't hit well.

This is probably as close to clicking on all cylinders as most teams get.  In any given 24-game period, some guys will be up and others down.  We have 9 players with an OPS+ of 116 or higher.  The four guys you mentioned will have hotter periods, and someone else will be cold then.  That’s baseball.  But the ratio of hot players to cold ones is really good right now. 

[interloper]

A lot of teams are pretty injured and have worse depth than us. I'm not saying that's the reason, but it's a reason to believe maybe we can maintain our offense throughout the season better than other teams. 

[Moshagge3]

23 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I still feel like our offense isn't clicking on all cylinders yet. Santander has been down, Adley hasn't found alot of extra base power, Holliday has been a black hole so far, Hays was bad and now injured, Urias hasn't hit well.

But when Santander gets hot or Adley goes on a power run someone else might start slumping. Cowser is not going to have a 1.139 OPS forever, nor will Mountcastle likely end the year with a .385 OBP. I think this offense is about as good as anyone could have hoped for.

[CaptainRedbeard]

The Orioles have a wRC+ as a team of 128, which is better than the wRC+ for any single Orioles hitter last year - Adley was 127 and Gunnar 123 (although Hicks was 129 in his ~200 ABs).

That’s the second best in baseball, behind only Atlanta at 128, and a good bit ahead of the Dodgers at 122, who are both riding unsustainably high BABIPs (.340 and .328; by comparison, league average is .290 and the Orioles are .294). 

Despite walking at a very low rate as a team, the Orioles are doing it by being by far the best power hitting team in baseball. Their .199 ISO is far ahead of the Braves second at .184, and the league average is .143. I think power numbers usually go up as weather gets warmer too, so that should only increase.

The top team wRC+ last year were the Braves at 125, and then 4 teams between 112 and 118. So the Orioles will almost certainly cool off to some degree. But I also think we could see the walk rate tick up as the scouting reports adjust - Gunnar, Westburg and Cowser in particular have been hitting for huge power at low walk rates (for Cowser, until 3 walks last night), so I could see there being a trade off of walks for less power if pitchers are more careful pitching in-zone to them going forward. 

[Aristotelian]

Yeah, I was looking at our OPS numbers last night. Updated for today, we have two guys over 1.000, four guys over .900, and eight guys .736 (116 OPS+) or higher. So almost our entire lineup is above average or better with four guys producing at an elite level. 

Cowser 1.139/232

Gunnar 1.022/199

Westburg .941/176

O'Hearn .938/175

Mountcastle .866/157

Rutschman .786/135

Santander .741/118

Mullins .736/116

We also have Mateo off the bench at .746/120 and McCann .667/96, slightly below average but not too shabby for a backup C. 

Whenever I get the road announcers, they are always talking up our offense. Even when we are down, whenever we get a couple runners they say "here comes that Orioles offense again, they are relentless and they are never out of a game."

[Say O!]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

A lot of teams are pretty injured and have worse depth than us. I'm not saying that's the reason, but it's a reason to believe maybe we can maintain our offense throughout the season better than other teams. 

Regarding the overall league offensive environment, I think it’s less injuries/depth and more to do with putridness of CWS and MIA offenses, with COL not much better.  Those three are wRC+ of 62, 67, 75 respectively. Most years shake out with the worst team around 80.

FYI the Os are currently 127 wRC+ only trailing the LAD 128.  Also note that Os are second in BSR, only trailing CIN, with CIN, Os, KCR significantly better than rest of league. 

[Too Tall]

I hope this thread doesn't start a jinx!!!!!!!  Waving my anti-jinx wand!!!!  Baseball is a game of averages. Don't assume anything long term - as sure as it may seem. Just cross fingers and enjoy the now. 

[sportsfan8703]

We've been also doing this while carrying Holliday's bat.  Other than that, we have a Braves level offense.  

[Just Regular]

20 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

 

The top team wRC+ last year were the Braves at 125, and then 4 teams between 112 and 118.

Its worth mentioning those 2023 Braves also have the seasonal wRC+ record since integration, beating the peak Astros, Big Red Machine, Harvey's Wallbangers, whatever Jeter/Manny Yankees/Red Sox unit is your favorite, etc.

The 2024 Orioles and Braves are on top of them all right now if you split seasons, but that's just like Luis Arraez hitting .450 25 games into the season.    I believe Sigbot expects Holliday, Mayo and Basallo to all be more than Westburg, so either Elias is going to get his biggest bust sometime in the next few years or there's a chance the run production will be pretty special.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=1&team=0%2Cts&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1947&season=2024&sortcol=18&sortdir=default&pagenum=1