3rd round pick - Tyler Townsend, 1B - FIU

[Florida_Osfan]

No I think Snyder will either be traded or move to DH eventually...

Why would we trade Snyder? That seems counter-productive unless we're getting some serious talent in return for him.

[RVAbird]

I'd love to see the guy move to Frederick by the end of August and be in Bowie next season.

I've got the feeling he will be our LT solution at 1B eventually if we don't trade for one before then.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here...

I really like(d) the Townsend pick and I could see him profiling similarly offensively to Reimold, but the fact of the matter is that college mashers often seem much more polished then they really are, mainly due to the generally weaker (and much more variant) level of competition.

Clay Davenport has made it clear in several articles that one of the least reliable metrics for translation from the minors to the majors (let alone from college to the majors) is OBP. When big college bats with holes in their swings start facing better pitching, their contact rate slips, which brings down their batting average, which brings down their OBP. To add to this, as pitchers realize that these hitters aren't going to hit .300+ in the minor leagues, they will stop pitching around them as much. So, often, hitters will see their walk rates drop along with their contact rates.

It's too early to know whether this applies to Townsend. He's got great raw power and I really like the kid, but we'll have to see how he adjusts to better pitching with a wood bat. Hopefully he maintains a solid average and good plate discipline, but when contact rate goes, walk rates and power often follow in short order.

He'll be one to follow for sure. He's got a lot of potential.

[Stotle]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here...

I really like(d) the Townsend pick and I could see him profiling similarly offensively to Reimold, but the fact of the matter is that college mashers often seem much more polished then they really are, mainly due to the generally weaker (and much more variant) level of competition.

Clay Davenport has made it clear in several articles that one of the least reliable metrics for translation from the minors to the majors (let alone from college to the majors) is OBP. When big college bats with holes in their swings start facing better pitching, their contact rate slips, which brings down their batting average, which brings down their OBP. To add to this, as pitchers realize that these hitters aren't going to hit .300+ in the minor leagues, they will stop pitching around them as much. So, often, hitters will see their walk rates drop along with their contact rates.

It's too early to know whether this applies to Townsend. He's got great raw power and I really like the kid, but we'll have to see how he adjusts to better pitching with a wood bat. Hopefully he maintains a solid average and good plate discipline, but when contact rate goes, walk rates and power often follow in short order.

He'll be one to follow for sure. He's got a lot of potential.

THis is my concern for Townsend, though he has the bat speed and contact ability to hopefully help him get over the hurdle. Ultimately, I think he'll need to make adjustments in his load, though (which is completely understandable -- we shouldn't expect every draftee to have ML-ready mechanics).

[ThisIsOurHouse]

I'd love to see the guy move to Frederick by the end of August and be in Bowie next season.

So Towsend would skip Delmarva?

[JTrea81]

So Towsend would skip Delmarva?

Reimold went from Aberdeen to Frederick after being drafted in 2005.

[melankfo]

Looks like we got our masher.

Discuss...

Okay, okay, -- he does SEEM like an exciting prospect. Great numbers as a college hitter, and even though it was not in a top conference, his dominance in the wooden bat Valley League against some good collegians suggests that he can excel.

Only so far he's not cutting it as a hitter at Aberdeen. It's not just that he's batting .170 , but that he has 18 strike outs in 47 at bats and in yesterday's game I saw him clearly not catching up to 86 mph fastballs. He looked really over-matched, not like a number 3 pick drafted for his hitting. What's going on? Is it just taking him an abnormal amount of time to get the rust off? Or is this the early warning, that he is will be one of the O's worst picks of recent times?

[allstar1579]

Okay, okay, -- he does SEEM like an exciting prospect. Great numbers as a college hitter, and even though it was not in a top conference, his dominance in the wooden bat Valley League against some good collegians suggests that he can excel.

Only so far he's not cutting it as a hitter at Aberdeen. It's not just that he's batting .170 , but that he has 18 strike outs in 47 at bats and in yesterday's game I saw him clearly not catching up to 86 mph fastballs. He looked really over-matched, not like a number 3 pick drafted for his hitting. What's going on? Is it just taking him an abnormal amount of time to get the rust off? Or is this the early warning, that he is will be one of the O's worst picks of recent times?

Really? After 47 AB???? Really????

[McLovin]

Okay, okay, -- he does SEEM like an exciting prospect. Great numbers as a college hitter, and even though it was not in a top conference, his dominance in the wooden bat Valley League against some good collegians suggests that he can excel.

Only so far he's not cutting it as a hitter at Aberdeen. It's not just that he's batting .170 , but that he has 18 strike outs in 47 at bats and in yesterday's game I saw him clearly not catching up to 86 mph fastballs. He looked really over-matched, not like a number 3 pick drafted for his hitting. What's going on? Is it just taking him an abnormal amount of time to get the rust off? Or is this the early warning, that he is will be one of the O's worst picks of recent times?

I'm going to go way out on a limb here, and say something really crazy - maybe the Oriole's scouts and the Aberdeen coaches (who keep putting him in the cleanup spot) see something you don't.

[melankfo]

I'm going to go way out on a limb here, and say something really crazy - maybe the Oriole's scouts and the Aberdeen coaches (who keep putting him in the cleanup spot) see something you don't.

Of course, the scouts saw something positive in the boy, or they wouldn't have recommended drafting him. Of course, the scouts are hoping against hope they'll prove right, and the coaches have probably been ordered to keep him in the lineup. Of course, all Oriole fans -- including you and me -- hope he works out fine. I would think that would be obvious and not require sarcasm to make the point.

I would hope that it's not heresy to question "the experts" in this or any forum. They really are often wrong. Of course, fifty at bats is not a critical test -- we all know that -- but what I saw did make me doubt, and I thought I'd share that tentative reaction. Sorry if it offended you. If you'd prefer all rosy, positive scenarios of the future, I'm not your man.

[QBsILLEST1]

Okay, okay, -- he does SEEM like an exciting prospect. Great numbers as a college hitter, and even though it was not in a top conference, his dominance in the wooden bat Valley League against some good collegians suggests that he can excel.

Only so far he's not cutting it as a hitter at Aberdeen. It's not just that he's batting .170 , but that he has 18 strike outs in 47 at bats and in yesterday's game I saw him clearly not catching up to 86 mph fastballs. He looked really over-matched, not like a number 3 pick drafted for his hitting. What's going on? Is it just taking him an abnormal amount of time to get the rust off? Or is this the early warning, that he is will be one of the O's worst picks of recent times?

Wow, I dont even know what to say to this. Give the guy a chance, he is making a huge transition from college ball to pro ball. You cannot judge someones future by such a small amount of at bats. Thats ridiculous.....

[Moose Milligan]

A third round pick won't go down as one of the worst picks of all time.

[allstar1579]

A third round pick won't go down as one of the worst picks of all time.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Mike Paradis.

[mark_beckens]

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Mike Paradis.

I would put several others ahead of Paradis. Alvie Sheppard, Chris Smith, Chris Myers, Mark Smith, Rick Elder, the 1st round of 99

[allstar1579]

I would put several others ahead of Paradis. Alvie Sheppard, Chris Smith, Chris Myers, Mark Smith, Rick Elder, the 1st round of 99

Yeah, Mike was the worst of that class of '99. Mark Smith at least hit some HR in the majors. Elder looked like he was going to be good, he's a Bowie hero. Chris Smith was another bad one.

[hoosiers]

Chris Smith was injured by an Orioles trainer.

We will never know if he was a bad pick or not.