Do you trust AM

[Dipper9]

No' date=' it doesn't matter who is the GM of this team; the Orioles will never make the playoffs until Angelos sells them.[/quote']

Wow, there's an original thought!

Maybe in 2005 this perception had serious meritt. However, since MacPhail has come on board, Angelos has barely been heard of. So back to the point of the thread, do we trust AM to make this a playoff contender?

My answer is complicated. In a vaccuum, I trust AM that he is doing the right thing to make the Orioles competitive. But the problem is we don't live in a vacuum. We live in the AL East where MLB lets the Yanks and Sox buy pennants. So to that point, NO, I do not expect us to contend in this structure, regardless of the GM (OR OWNER!)

[Bradysburns]

I don't think we really know.

I mean, the payroll is very low, which I am sure PA is happy about.

It may just be that AM and PA are on the same page...Go cheap, keep the payroll down and see what happens.

I don't think we really know...I think everyone wants to assume the best but no one knows.

End of the day, AM still needs to be willing to do things he has never done before and then, it will depend on PA.

If we could get Lackey for 5/75 right now, do I believe AM would sign him to that deal? No way. Should he? Yes he should.

I have to say - this pretty much EXACTLY sums up my feelings toward AM. I think he's done a very professional and shrewd job thus far. He's a serious GM - certainly among the top 50% in MLB. So... I trust he's done a great job so far. But will he now start taking the steps needed to get us to the next level - be that the killer trade or FA signing, or what have you... That's the real question. I have the feeling he will.

So maybe I do trust him going forward.

[tom smith]

No' date=' it doesn't matter who is the GM of this team; the Orioles will never make the playoffs until Angelos sells them.[/quote']

Thats just BS. AM given a chance [by some of you ] will get this thing turned around. Were already getting close.

[Sports Guy]

So Jtrea, are you going to continue to ignore all those stats I showed?

[hoosiers]

And this is something to watch because MacPhail himself admitted at the end of his Cubs tenure that they failed to produce any good position players out of the Cubs system.

His obsession with pitching cost us the opportunity to draft a bat like Smoak, Posey and Beckham IMO, and there hasn't been a polished college bat yet that was equal to them and there doesn't look like there will be one in 2010 either.

I don't really understand what to make of this post. Does the poster want AM to interfere in Joe Jordan's drafting? Why complain about a lack of drafting polished college bats when we can trade for Jones, Bell and Pie to complement a system that already has Wieters, Riemold and Markakis at young ages?

Overall, I think the original post has a valid question in wanting to know we can trust AM to take us from where we are now to a playoff team. AM has done a masterful job accumulating cheap, young talent. While some see an inability to spend $, acquire premium FA talent in AM's past, etc, I'd like to think AM has learned from what happened in Chicago and that we will benefit from that.

[clapdiddy]

I think the bullpen is the part of a winning organization that is forgot about the most. I want to get to a point where a lead with 2 outs in the seventh is a loss to our opponent. I think signing a guy like Lackey does ten things for a team like the Orioles.

1.) We fill the TOR starter void.

2.) Takes some pressure off of the young staff.

3.) Provides a leader in terms of a player.

4.) He brings insight through his expertise and their respect for him.

5.) Allows one of the young starting arms to find a niche' in the bullpen.

6.) Major trade chip if most of our young pitching develops.

7.) Let's the rest of the league know we are here to play.

8.) Gives the bullpen a break on nights he pitches because he usually goes deeper into games.

9.) Gives us a player with a history of winning.

10.) Use him to recruit other players

This.

I'd rather have Lackey than any other free agent this off season. Unfortunately, I think the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are all going to be involved with Lackey, so we will no doubt be priced out.

[Hank Scorpio]

2008 Texas Rangers outscored the entire league by 56 runs and won 79 games.

The 2007 Cleveland Indians scored 870 runs and won 78. The '05 Rangers scored 865 and won 79.

I'm not saying you don't need both, but it's pretty consistent that if you have top 3-4 pitching, you're going to win 90+ games.

'08 Blue Jays & '05 Twins are the only teams since 2000 that won < 90 games with team ERA's under 4.00.

[Hank Scorpio]

Well this year, in terms of getting to the playoffs, offenses did rule but this year seems to be more of an exception.

When looking at these stats, 2 teams jumped out at me as almost always having good offenses but inconsistent to poor pitching...Cleveland and Texas.

13 times in the 2000's, Cleveland and/or Texas finished in the top 5 in terms of runs scored and Cleveland finished 6th twice.

Cleveland made the playoffs twice and Texas never did.

Texas finished 3rd or 4th in their division 8 times...Cleveland finished 3rd or worse 6 times.

BTW, since 2000, of the top 50 teams in terms of runs score, 29 won 85 or more games...didn't do the math but there were a good amount that finished under 90.

If you go back and look at the top 5 team ERAs since 2000, of those 50 teams, 40 won 85 games or more....Of those 50 teams, 31 of them won 90 or more games..with 2 winning 89 and 1 88 as well.

I would say there is some direction correlation there, wouldn't you guys?

Killin' me!!!!!!

I looked all this crap up last night but I couldn't stay awake late enough to muster the motivation to post it all.

[amateurfan]

2008 Texas Rangers outscored the entire league by 56 runs and won 79 games.

The 2007 Cleveland Indians scored 870 runs and won 78. The '05 Rangers scored 865 and won 79.

I'm not saying you don't need both, but it's pretty consistent that if you have top 3-4 pitching, you're going to win 90+ games.

'08 Blue Jays & '05 Twins are the only teams since 2000 that won < 90 games with team ERA's under 4.00.

That was the 2005 Cleveland team, and they had a positive RD of 88. That team underperformed.

[TonySoprano]

Frankly, what Cleveland and Texas et.al did , while interesting, the focus should be on the competition in our division. To be in playoff contention, by definition, you have to be in the top two in our division. Adding to the table I created yesterday about team OPS, team ERA and league rank is included.

YR	1P	OPS	ALR	ERA	ALR	2P	OPS	ALR	ERA	ALR2000	NYY	0.804	6	4.76	6	BOS	0.764	12	4.24	12001	NYY	0.769	8	4.04	3	BOS	0.773	6	4.18	42002	NYY	0.809	1	3.89	4	BOS	0.789	3	3.75	32003	NYY	0.810	2	4.03	3	BOS	0.851	1	4.49	82004	NYY	0.811	2	4.69	6	BOS	0.832	1	4.19	32005	NYY	0.805	2	4.54	9	BOS	0.811	1	4.74	112006	NYY	0.824	1	4.43	6	TOR	0.811	2	4.37	52007	BOS	0.806	4	3.87	1	NYY	0.829	1	4.50	82008	TBR	0.762	7	3.82	2	BOS	0.805	2	4.01	42009	NYY	0.839	1	4.28	3	BOS	0.806	2	4.35	6

Eight of the top-two finishing teams were 6th or lower in terms of team ERA, another eight teams finished in the top three. Contrast that with fourteen teams in the top three in OPS, five teams finishing 6th or lower.

The question of "which [pitching or hitting] has been more important the last ten years" isn't aqs much of a slam dunk answer as some would like to believe.

Getting back on topic, I go back to what I've stated before about Andy's record. He has not built a consistent winner in twenty-four years and the challenge he faces now is harder than it was in his previous two places of employment. Boston and New York reload year after year. We might pull a Tampa Bay one year, but I don't think Andy, or anyone, can consistently break the stranglehold they have on the top two spots.

[emmett16]

Look nobody's saying that pitching isn't important. But you don't need the second coming of Palmer, McNally and Cuellar to compete.

A mediocre staff can get to the playoffs with the proper offensive support. And it's much easier to maintain a mediocre pitching staff given the volitile nature of pitching.

That's why I'd like to see MacPhail focus more on offensive upgrades, because I think we can compete even if Matusz and company don't quite become the aces that we think they will as long as they have the offense they need to back them up.

You said it...

No, I don't trust him. He's never had to take a team from worst to the playoffs in a division as tough as this one. And his out of his two WS teams, he can only really take credit for one, and that was years ago.

He seems to be obsessed with pitching, when good pitching is no longer as important as it once was. And he's never spent money on acquiring premium talent to take his teams to the next level.

I think he can take us to the level of maybe the Blue Jays, as an also ran, but I don't think we'll see the playoffs under his tenure.

[El Gordo]

You said it...

No, I don't trust him. He's never had to take a team from worst to the playoffs in a division as tough as this one. And his out of his two WS teams, he can only really take credit for one, and that was years ago.

He seems to be obsessed with pitching, when good pitching is no longer as important as it once was. And he's never spent money on acquiring premium talent to take his teams to the next level.

I think he can take us to the level of maybe the Blue Jays, as an also ran, but I don't think we'll see the playoffs under his tenure.

Who has? He is trying to do something nobody has ever done, rebuild an entire organization from top to bottom, and make it competitive in the AL East. Name another GM who has done that.

[mweb]

Frankly, what Cleveland and Texas et.al did , while interesting, the focus should be on the competition in our division. To be in playoff contention, by definition, you have to be in the top two in our division. Adding to the table I created yesterday about team OPS, team ERA and league rank is included.

YR	1P	OPS	ALR	ERA	ALR	2P	OPS	ALR	ERA	ALR2000	NYY	0.804	6	4.76	6	BOS	0.764	12	4.24	12001	NYY	0.769	8	4.04	3	BOS	0.773	6	4.18	42002	NYY	0.809	1	3.89	4	BOS	0.789	3	3.75	32003	NYY	0.810	2	4.03	3	BOS	0.851	1	4.49	82004	NYY	0.811	2	4.69	6	BOS	0.832	1	4.19	32005	NYY	0.805	2	4.54	9	BOS	0.811	1	4.74	112006	NYY	0.824	1	4.43	6	TOR	0.811	2	4.37	52007	BOS	0.806	4	3.87	1	NYY	0.829	1	4.50	82008	TBR	0.762	7	3.82	2	BOS	0.805	2	4.01	42009	NYY	0.839	1	4.28	3	BOS	0.806	2	4.35	6

Eight of the top-two finishing teams were 6th or lower in terms of team ERA, another eight teams finished in the top three. Contrast that with fourteen teams in the top three in OPS, five teams finishing 6th or lower.

The question of "which [pitching or hitting] has been more important the last ten years" isn't aqs much of a slam dunk answer as some would like to believe.

Getting back on topic, I go back to what I've stated before about Andy's record. He has not built a consistent winner in twenty-four years and the challenge he faces now is harder than it was in his previous two places of employment. Boston and New York reload year after year. We might pull a Tampa Bay one year, but I don't think Andy, or anyone, can consistently break the stranglehold they have on the top two spots.

Good post. Of course it's not a slam dunk, nor is it going forward. The point as always is there are different ways to reach the goal of contention. Anyone who says we need one particular thing either doesn't understand that's it's simply a matter of outscoring your opponents by a certain amount or doesn't understand what the word need means.

[andrewrickli]

Yes, his plan is working so far, now lets see if Phase II works...

[foxfield]

No, I don't trust him. He's never had to take a team from worst to the playoffs in a division as tough as this one. And his out of his two WS teams, he can only really take credit for one, and that was years ago.

He seems to be obsessed with pitching, when good pitching is no longer as important as it once was. And he's never spent money on acquiring premium talent to take his teams to the next level.

I think he can take us to the level of maybe the Blue Jays, as an also ran, but I don't think we'll see the playoffs under his tenure.

Your love of the Orioles, is somehow causing brain damage.

Even if you accept the absurdity of the first bolded statement as fact...AM can ONLY take credit for one WS title.....the second one is just, well.....

As to the original post...

Yes I trust AM. He has done a very good job so far and yet there is much left to do in the absolute toughest division in baseball....for every reference to Cleveland or Texas I would point out that they do not play the Red Sux and MFY 36 times a year.

Pitching or bats? Well if we had enough of one and simply had to buy the other I do not know if it would matter. I think it is true we need both. But I think AM has always said he would rather grow arms and buy bats.

I would love to see us splurge on a TOR starter. Reality says that we cannot overpay enough to get one until we show that we have grown enough talent to be closer to .500. That is not AM's fault. I am optimistic that we are making progress but realistic to know that even if all of the young arms and bats improve in 2010, we are still a long way from winning a division crown.

To summarize, I know there is still much for AM to do to be able to say "Mission Accomplished" but lets just say I am thrilled that he is the GM and not you JTrea81!