Keith Law takes another shot at the O's

[DrungoHazewood]

Right or wrong it plays a role in the pursuit of a pitcher.

...

Outside of projectability and how the frame will fill out relative to adding velo, one cannot forget the physical maturation that is needed to sustain the rigors of pitching professionally. This is an area in casual scouting/discussion that I honestly feel is not fully appreciated.

A professional baseball season is a grind. One has to have a body that will allow them to pitch at a level well into August some 10-15 pounds less than they entered the season at, on a inconsistent diet and hectic sleep/natural cycle routine. Outside of just height and weight you're now looking at muscle mass, body comp and much more fine details.

I see this as opportunity. Any time there's a built in prejudice against a type of player, whether or not that is a good generalization, you have the opportunity to exploit that. Maybe the Orioles become the team that gets really good at identifying short pitchers. Maybe the Orioles hire a killer sports nutiritionist who's better than anyone else at keeping the players on a great diet and exercise scheme throughout the year to keep their weight and strength up.

Sure, that seems unlikely given their history. But Duquette might be the GM who turns that around. Maybe.

[Tony-OH]

(I'm not a big message board guy so I'm not sure if all that added anything or was presented the best, but I hope it was worth any read.)

Good stuff and thanks for the posting on the board. As a previous poster said, if Law had the ability to communicate as well as you with an even handed approach, he wouldn't have as many bashers. I agree 100% about the body size comments and overall potential for growth. I know when I'm scouting the minors pitchers under six-foot, need to really prove they can hold up as a starter or they are most likely getting a reliever grade. Maybe it's just traditional bias, but a quick look around major league baseball will prove that pitchers of short statue, especially right-handers, don't normally make it as starters.

As for the Korean pitcher, I have no idea whether he throws in the low to mid 80s or upper 80s, and I have no idea what his true body size is, but the whole issue most of us have with Law is how he immediately spins his comments using the absolute worse scouting reports he received. He tries his best to make DD look like an idiot and I personally think it's unfair. I met Duquette and he's nothing like the "swarmy, smarter than the room" guy he was supposed to be ten years ago.

[Can_of_corn]

Good stuff and thanks for the posting on the board. As a previous poster said, if Law had the ability to communicate as well as you with an even handed approach, he wouldn't have as many bashers. I agree 100% about the body size comments and overall potential for growth. I know when I'm scouting the minors pitchers under six-foot, need to really prove they can hold up as a starter or they are most likely getting a reliever grade. Maybe it's just traditional bias, but a quick look around major league baseball will prove that pitchers of short statue, especially right-handers, don't normally make it as starters.

As for the Korean pitcher, I have no idea whether he throws in the low to mid 80s or upper 80s, and I have no idea what his true body size is, but the whole issue most of us have with Law is how he immediately spins his comments using the absolute worse scouting reports he received. He tries his best to make DD look like an idiot and I personally think it's unfair. I met Duquette and he's nothing like the "swarmy, smarter than the room" guy he was supposed to be ten years ago.

From what I understand that was a pretty good description of KLaw 10 years ago...

[Lucky Jim]

As for the Korean pitcher, I have no idea whether he throws in the low to mid 80s or upper 80s, and I have no idea what his true body size is, but the whole issue most of us have with Law is how he immediately spins his comments using the absolute worse scouting reports he received.

Right. I don't think anyone here should put too much stock in the idea that the kid is going to sprout to 6'1 and sit in the 90s. But if he's bigger than Law believes (5'10+) and throw harder than Law claims (upper 80s), then he's at least a prospect.

I do think those who are claiming size and velocity don't matter are wrong as a matter of physics and biomechanics. In particular, this thread is full of logical fallacies. We'll see what he is when he shows up. We're rooting for him to succeed, Law clearly takes some pleasure in the idea of his pre-ordained failure. Clearly there's going to be some conflict. I'll keep my fingers crossed.

That said, and for the umpteenth time, the Orioles may struggle with the difficult gradations between true prospects, but they've never seemed to me a team that would throw a ton of money after a non-prospect.

[Lucky Jim]

From what I understand that was a pretty good description of KLaw 10 years ago...

Can't say that it appears to have changed much.

[DrungoHazewood]

I do think those who are claiming size and velocity don't matter are wrong as a matter of physics and biomechanics.

I think the physics and biomechanics show that a taller pitcher has a built-in advantage, but individual physical differences can overcome those advantages. On Mark Hendrickson's best day he didn't throw nearly as hard as Billy Wagner, despite nearly a foot height advantage.

Anyway, everbody knows Steve Dalkowski was like 5' 7" and threw 125 mph.

[Stotle]

That said, and for the umpteenth time, the Orioles may struggle with the difficult gradations between true prospects, but they've never seemed to me a team that would throw a ton of money after a non-prospect.

Ohlman/Coffey were pretty significant outlays for risky propositions, but generally I agree with what you are saying.

[Lucky Jim]

Ohlman/Coffey were pretty significant outlays for risky propositions, but generally I agree with what you are saying.

Excellent examples. I was under the impression that these guys were considered high-upside/high-risk guys. But they at least had upside.

[Stotle]

Excellent examples. I was under the impression that these guys were considered high-upside/high-risk guys. But they at least had upside.

Yeah, certainly upside. Ohlman was considered (by many) to be a long shot to catch, and his bat was not advanced enough to play elsewhere without more pre-pro seasoning. Coffey, obviously, had injury issues that scared most away, and had yet to show the velo jump he saw his senior year was sustainable.

[BrunoCherrytown]

I think the physics and biomechanics show that a taller pitcher has a built-in advantage, but individual physical differences can overcome those advantages. On Mark Hendrickson's best day he didn't throw nearly as hard as Billy Wagner, despite nearly a foot height advantage.

Anyway, everbody knows Steve Dalkowski was like 5' 7" and threw 125 mph.

Kenny Powers couldn't be more than 5'8 and I heard he was throwing 101MPH in the Mexican League last season.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Kenny Powers couldn't be more than 5'8 and I heard he was throwing 101MPH in the Mexican League last season.

I still hate his guts for beating the Orioles in the World Series.

[Tony-OH]

Yeah, certainly upside. Ohlman was considered (by many) to be a long shot to catch, and his bat was not advanced enough to play elsewhere without more pre-pro seasoning. Coffey, obviously, had injury issues that scared most away, and had yet to show the velo jump he saw his senior year was sustainable.

I've seen Ohlman and I'm not sure what the scouts saw on this one. He certainly didn't look like a million dollar talent to me. As for Coffey, he at least started to show some ability to pitch last year even without the jump in velocity. IF his velocity ever can creep back into the low 90s consistently, he could still end up something. Either way, I agree, they were some high risky investments, a lot more than say 550K for the Korean southpaw.

[GoldGlove21]

I've seen Ohlman and I'm not sure what the scouts saw on this one. He certainly didn't look like a million dollar talent to me. As for Coffey, he at least started to show some ability to pitch last year even without the jump in velocity. IF his velocity ever can creep back into the low 90s consistently, he could still end up something. Either way, I agree, they were some high risky investments, a lot more than say 550K for the Korean southpaw.

With this in mind, would you go $40M+ for Cespedes on a 6-year deal or spread that money around on multiple high upside prospects in order to mitigate risk and possibly maximize the ROI?

[Lucky Jim]

"He was one of the top youth pitchers in Korea and when their national team would go out, he would be their lead pitcher. He was known by the Orioles' scouting staff and I also had knowledge of him through my contacts in the Far East," Duquette said.

It seems not everyone values Kim as the Orioles do. ESPN's Keith Law said this about the signing via Twitter:

The O's gave $550K to a 5'9" Korean HS lefty throwing 80-83 with no feel for a breaking ball. Nice use of savings from cutting pro scouting.

Duquette said Kim throws harder than that and the Orioles have seen him do it.

"His current velocity is 88 to 90," Duquette said. "He throws hard. Some scouts may have seen him in a tournament where it was 30 degrees, basically freezing and they may not have seen the velocity, but we've seen this player several times and we've seen him work in a range of 88 to 90 mph."

Kim is listed by the Orioles at 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds. Sometimes there are concerns about shorter pitchers having trouble getting a downhill plane on their delivery, but Duquette didn't see height as an issue for Kim.

"I think the important thing is the quality of his pitches and, at 17 years old, I'm not sure he's done completely with his growth cycle. I think he's got an opportunity to continue to fill out and mature physically. And I like the quality of his stuff. His stuff plays and that translates well to get hitters out," he added.

"Kim is a top quality left-handed pitcher," Duquette said. "He's got an excellent breaking ball and very good command of it. It's a 12-6 breaking ball and he's got an average fastball. Our scouts really like this player and they've been following him for a couple years. He's one of the top youth pitchers in South Korea.

Duquette, via Melewski, directly addresses the issues....

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2012/02/duquettes-pursuit-of-international-talent-continues-with-high-school-lefty.html

[El Gordo]

Duquette, via Melewski, directly addresses the issues....

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2012/02/duquettes-pursuit-of-international-talent-continues-with-high-school-lefty.html

It would seem that either DD is lying through his teeth to cover his bum, or Law is engaging in some extreme hyperbole to further his agenda. Which could it be......?:scratchchinhmm: