Reynolds: "I would assume that I'll probably be gone"

[SrMeowMeow]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynoma01.shtml

Lul...wut???

You're really going to bet on a player having some natural gift to have a good season, and only ever have a good season, after a bad season? And if that isn't silly enough, if you believe in this "ability" and you sign him to a multi-year deal, aren't you worried about his proven gift to always rebound from a good season with a bad one?

[SrMeowMeow]

Ike Davis had a .333 wOBA and a -1.8 UZR for a 1.6 WAR last year. Reynolds had a -3.2 UZR at 1B last year. If he could step it up to about league average UZR, even with the 335 wOBA he had last year he would be close to 2 war. If he returns to his career average offense .350 wOBA, he should be worth between 2.5-3 WAR for BOS or TB.

He had a -3.2 UZR at 1B last year in a partial season. He has a career -14.2 UZR/150 at 1B. For him to "step it up to league average" on defense is borderline unreasonable; asking him to kindly bounce back to his career averages offensively too is basically asking for him to hit his 95th percentile projection. That's not a good bet.

[Dagger420]

He had a -3.2 UZR at 1B last year in a partial season. He has a career -14.2 UZR/150 at 1B. For him to "step it up to league average" on defense is borderline unreasonable; asking him to kindly bounce back to his career averages offensively too is basically asking for him to hit his 95th percentile projection. That's not a good bet.

Don't really know too much about UZR, but that's pretty bogus in my opinion. As someone who's watched a ton of baseball and a ton of Mark Reynolds at first base last season, the dude makes plays that no other 1b in the game today makes.

He also has made so many play-saving picks, or stretches such as this - (name four other first basemen with that type of athleticism):

<iframe src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?width=400&height=254&content_id=24479951&property=mlb" width="400" height="254" frameborder="0">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe>

By no means do I love his tendency to strike out, but the guy makes pitchers work, and can carry an entire team for a week or so when he gets piping hot.

Sure there's other guys I'd rather have, but how much must you pay them or trade to acquire them? I am all for the O's letting him walk and trying to sign him for closer to market value - but I don't see many better options available.

[SrMeowMeow]

I'm not trying to be annoying, but the whole point of UZR is that it's really hard to measure a player's defensive value just based on your eyes. If you'd watched and taken notes on every game, that's one thing, but just remembering a few athletic plays doesn't mean much. And errors and web gems are the tip of the iceberg. How can you expect casual observers to remember every time a ball goes just by the glove? Is that a play that the average first baseman would have made? Would no other 1B even get close, so it's unreasonable to penalize the player for not getting to it? Not to mention that a bad defensive player can make a beautiful play or five. UZR attempts to measure these things with scientific rigor. Not to mention that the knock on Reynolds has always been consistency (as opposed to someone like Hardy who almost never makes a mistake or makes a routine play look hard). Even at 1B Reynolds made some questionable plays/decisions.

Basically, "I don't know anything about UZR" and "I saw Reynolds make some sick plays" (so did I) is not a very comforting argument.

[Dagger420]

I'm not trying to be annoying, but the whole point of UZR is that it's really hard to measure a player's defensive value just based on your eyes. If you'd watched and taken notes on every game, that's one thing, but just remembering a few athletic plays doesn't mean much. And errors and web gems are the tip of the iceberg. How can you expect casual observers to remember every time a ball goes just by the glove? Is that a play that the average first baseman would have made? Would no other 1B even get close, so it's unreasonable to penalize the player for not getting to it? Not to mention that a bad defensive player can make a beautiful play or five. UZR attempts to measure these things with scientific rigor. Not to mention that the knock on Reynolds has always been consistency (as opposed to someone like Hardy who almost never makes a mistake or makes a routine play look hard). Even at 1B Reynolds made some questionable plays/decisions.

Basically, "I don't know anything about UZR" and "I saw Reynolds make some sick plays" (so did I) is not a very comforting argument.

I understand that its hard to numerically quantify defensive ability and production. Which is exactly why i don't really trust UZR.

Reynolds barely made any errors at first and I felt like he got to many balls that most 1b's would never have had a shot at. And he was a HUGE upgrade over what I saw from Davis over there.

Hardy made one of the most potentially costly errors this season in Yankee stadium. But yes, he's very consistent. I felt very confident in Reynolds over there though too. The guy made 5 errors in over 100 games at 1b and showed excellent range and prowess in taking throws. Not sure why the UZR would be so bad? Laroche had the exact same fielding % and although good at 1b, isn't quite the athlete that Mark is.

And all this considering Reynolds had prepped all offseason for 3B and essentially moved over and almost immediately played excellent, means that its VERY reasonable to think that an entire offseason of preparing to play 1b and more experience under his belt will improve his chances next season.

Not sure if you've ever played competitive baseball or even softball, but when you're accustomed to either 1b or 3b, and you have to start playing essentially a mirror image of the position, its' not exactly a piece of cake. It's very reaction oriented and balls take the opposite bounce etc going over 100 mph...

[SrMeowMeow]

Not sure if you've ever played competitive baseball or even softball, but when you're accustomed to either 1b or 3b, and you have to start playing essentially a mirror image of the position, its' not exactly a piece of cake. It's very reaction oriented and balls take the opposite bounce etc going over 100 mph...

It's hard to find time to play baseball when I'm stuck in my mom's basement.

I don't know. I'm not a fanatic. But Reynolds has a long, long history of being one of the worst defensive players in baseball, including at first base. And such a small chunk of UZR is pretty meaningless. But if someone asked me to take the over/under on Reynolds being, say, -5 runs at 1B over a full season (by whatever metric), I'd take the under. And your point about 1B and 3B just highlights the issue. Is it likely that Reynolds, in the midst of a position change, just happened to trip his dormant elite defense gene?

[weams]

Is it likely that Reynolds, in the midst of a position change, just happened to trip his dormant elite defense gene?

I will always choose to remember it that way.

[SrMeowMeow]

I will always choose to remember it that way.

I just assumed that Lex Luthor stopped slipping Kryptonite into his sunflower seeds.

[theobird]

All I can tell you is that I feel we have let my Favorite present day Oriole walk away....For nothing. The only way this will make sense to me is if it leads to the team applying that 9 million that would have been spent on Mark on a Top Free Agent like Hamilton, or assuming the contract of another top player in a trade. If the idea is to put Chris Davis at first, and not replace Marks bat at all, then we lose. Big time. Our team will be weaker defensively for sure, and without Reynolds potential 40 HR production.

I have not been a proponent of signing Hamilton, and I am still not. But if he signs here, Markakis should move to first base because I think Markakis could quickly become a very good first baseman and I feel that Davis plays an adequate corner Outfield.

[RVAbird]

I'm still baffled by how many people are swayed by Reynolds' ability to turn routine plays at 1B into diving affairs.

[UpstateNYfan]

I'm still baffled by how many people are swayed by Reynolds' ability to turn routine plays at 1B into diving affairs.

Maybe you'll be swayed when routine plays are not made. What sway you??

[Dagger420]

It's hard to find time to play baseball when I'm stuck in my mom's basement.

I don't know. I'm not a fanatic. But Reynolds has a long, long history of being one of the worst defensive players in baseball, including at first base. And such a small chunk of UZR is pretty meaningless. But if someone asked me to take the over/under on Reynolds being, say, -5 runs at 1B over a full season (by whatever metric), I'd take the under. And your point about 1B and 3B just highlights the issue. Is it likely that Reynolds, in the midst of a position change, just happened to trip his dormant elite defense gene?

No, but two things work in his favor at 1b:

1. He doesn't have to throw the ball nearly as much across the diamond - the source of many of his errors.

2. There's more RH hitters than lefties, so less hitters to pull it down that line.

I'm not saying the guys winning any gold gloves any time soon - but he's more than serviceable in my opinion, and the best/most convenient option I see at the present time.

For all you guys hating Mark Reynolds... What's the better option then?

[Can_of_corn]

No, but two things work in his favor at 1b:

1. He doesn't have to throw the ball nearly as much across the diamond - the source of many of his errors.

2. There's more RH hitters than lefties, so less hitters to pull it down that line.

I'm not saying the guys winning any gold gloves any time soon - but he's more than serviceable in my opinion, and the best/most convenient option I see at the present time.

For all you guys hating Mark Reynolds... What's the better option then?

Chris Davis as an Arb 1 guy.

[Enjoy Terror]

Ike Davis had a .333 wOBA and a -1.8 UZR for a 1.6 WAR last year. Reynolds had a -3.2 UZR at 1B last year. If he could step it up to about league average UZR, even with the 335 wOBA he had last year he would be close to 2 war. If he returns to his career average offense .350 wOBA, he should be worth between 2.5-3 WAR for BOS or TB.

Ike Davis makes half a million dollars. Reynolds makes 20x that.

[jcarm]

Don't really know too much about UZR, but that's pretty bogus in my opinion. As someone who's watched a ton of baseball and a ton of Mark Reynolds at first base last season, the dude makes plays that no other 1b in the game today makes.

He also has made so many play-saving picks, or stretches such as this - (name four other first basemen with that type of athleticism):

<iframe src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?width=400&height=254&content_id=24479951&property=mlb" width="400" height="254" frameborder="0">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe>

By no means do I love his tendency to strike out, but the guy makes pitchers work, and can carry an entire team for a week or so when he gets piping hot.

Sure there's other guys I'd rather have, but how much must you pay them or trade to acquire them? I am all for the O's letting him walk and trying to sign him for closer to market value - but I don't see many better options available.

Seems like that play by Reynolds would have been easier if the had his right foot on the bag rather than his left foot. But. what do I know?