Reynolds: "I would assume that I'll probably be gone"

[weams]

I really wonder who is going to pay Reynolds what he wants now that the Sox are out.

I am glad Reynolds will not be there or Tampa.

[Brendan25]

I am glad Reynolds will not be there or Tampa.

That was my biggest concern was if he left him going to Boston and putting up 40 homeruns with a .340 OBP.

[Sanfran327]

Over the last three years Napoli has been worth about 8 wins, Reynolds about half of one win. What's 1/16th of 39... I think we someone can get Reynolds for $2.5M!

I've never pretended to know much about WAR, but this really has me confused. They seem like very similar players at first glance, but apparently Napoli is worth 16x Reynolds value. It has to be defensively due to how bad Reynolds has been at 3rd, but since he moved to 1st and played great defense, and with Napoli moving to 1st, you'd think that their next few years should project to be very similar.

[Frobby]

Red Sox throw another wrench into the market by signing Napoli to a 3/39M deal to play 1b primarily. I'd assume that means we won't have to worry about them signing Reynolds, but what do you think that does to influence Reynolds' market value?

Hard to say. Napoli has been worth 9.4 rWAR over the last 3 years, valued at $45 mm. From that perspective, $39 mm is not unreasonable. But the three season breakown for the past three years was $11/$25/$9, so I'm not syre $39 mm in value at ages 31-33 is a good bet.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I've never pretended to know much about WAR, but this really has me confused. They seem like very similar players at first glance, but apparently Napoli is worth 16x Reynolds value. It has to be defensively due to how bad Reynolds has been at 3rd, but since he moved to 1st and played great defense, and with Napoli moving to 1st, you'd think that their next few years should project to be very similar.

Past WAR is obviously affected heavily by positional scarcity and defensive performance. If they are both playing first base then the difference should be narrowed quite a bit. Still, Reynolds has a lifetime wRC+ of 109 while Napoli has a lifetime wRC+ of 128. Basically, Napoli has been about 19% more effective in creating runs on offense than Reynolds has.

If you want to argue going forward and say that Napoli's stats are padded by platooning, Napoli is on the wrong side of 30, and will like be a less defender at first than Reynolds ...... I probably wouldn't argue with much of that.

[Sanfran327]

Past WAR is obviously affected heavily by positional scarcity and defensive performance. If they are both playing first base then the difference should be narrowed quite a bit. Still, Reynolds has a lifetime wRC+ of 109 while Napoli has a lifetime wRC+ of 128. Basically, Napoli has been about 19% more effective in creating runs on offense than Reynolds has.

If you want to argue going forward, you could say that Napoli stats are padded by platooning, Napoli is on the wrong side of 30, and will like be a less defender at first than Reynods ...... I probably wouldn't argue with much of that.

Kind of the point of the contract discussion, right? It's not secret that many contracts are given to players based on past performance, not a forecast of the performance of said player over the duration of the contract. In fact, I'd think that it's pretty rare for a player to live up to the value of a nine-figure FA contract, unless it's a player that broke into MLB very early and is signing his first FA deal at age 26 or 27.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Kind of the point of the contract discussion, right? It's not secret that many contracts are given to players based on past performance, not a forecast of the performance of said player over the duration of the contract. In fact, I'd think that it's pretty rare for a player to live up to the value of a nine-figure FA contract, unless it's a player that broke into MLB very early and is signing his first FA deal at age 26 or 27.

You won't get an argument from me that the Sox likely overpaid for Napoli to play first base (primarily). Be interesting to see how much of a Fenway Park hitter he really is.

[Can_of_corn]

You won't get an argument from me that the Sox likely overpaid for Napoli to play first base (primarily). Be interesting to see how much of a Fenway Park hitter he really is.

I know the talking heads made a big deal over the numbers that Adrian Gonzalez was going to put up at Fenway.

[orioles119]

I am glad Reynolds will not be there or Tampa.

That only leaves Toronto that needs a 1B unless Lind goes back there.

[Oriole Way]

That only leaves Toronto that needs a 1B unless Lind goes back there.

The question is whether Toronto is done with their spending spree... or if they aren't then what they would pay for Reynolds.

Loney just signed for 1/$2M with a contender. His age, OBP, WAR and defense (on paper he's better) aren't very far from those of Reynolds. His SLG also isn't so much different than Reynolds that it would call for Reynolds to be quadruple the value.

Don't get me wrong- I didn't want Loney and I still want to re-sign The Sheriff but DD's strategy all along was to see what the market would bear. He knew who would be looking for a first baseman and probably had an idea as to who they were after and what their chances were. I expect that we're still unlikely to re-sign Mark and I'll be saddened by it if that's the case but I'll say that so far it's playing out the way that DD calculated and I can't be unhappy that we have a GM with that ability.

There's often- but not always- somebody out there that will throw stupid money around but I think Mark's suitors are dwindling now. I would love to see a 2/14 deal but two things tell me that that won't happen. The first is that I don't think DD will go above that and I don't think Mark will take it because a) it's a pay cut from 2012 and regardless of performance it's going backwards financially for him and b) he'll think that he's worth more than 1/2 of Napoli. The second, and bigger, reason is that Davis is young, cheap, apparently liked by Buck and showed athleticism... all reasons to have a place for him to play every day. If we acquire Butler and assuming LF is either Nate and/or Reimold then Davis is the odd man out unless we put him at first base. I don't like Mark being in the middle of it but DD seems to be playing it exactly right where he has multiple irons in the fire, watching how they play out and determining which to pull the trigger on. He already has his "backup plan" in place- Davis @ 1B, Reimold in LF, platoon at DH.

[Brendan25]

the #marlins are among teams looking at mark reynolds. he'd be a better fit than yunel to bat behind @Giancarlo818

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS

Letters

[Can_of_corn]

If the Marlins are in on him then his value is really depressed.

[clapdiddy]

I realize this ship has probably sailed, but Reynolds may be our best 1B option after all.

[Sanfran327]

I realize this ship has probably sailed, but Reynolds may be our best 1B option after all.

He may not be the hitter that Butler is, but he's 10x the defender at 1b. He really did a lot to anchor our infield in the 2nd half last year, and I'm not particularly looking forward to giving Davis another shot there. If we have to put Davis in the field, I'd rather put him in LF. At least he demonstrated last year that he could be a serviceable OFer. He's not nearly as good as McLouth, but his bat can play there.

If Reynolds signs elsewhere as it's looking right now, we're going to miss his defense unless we sign Youkilis.

[Number5]

Mets are looking at Reynolds to play outfield?

https://twitter.com/KenDavidoff/status/276075085050290176