Throwing in the towel on the offseason

[SteveO]

Sometimes the best move is the one not made. I would have loved to see the Orioles add a MOO bat or #1/#2 type pitcher but the simple truth is that the value was not there and when your talking about a youngish team on the upswing it makes sense to not spend money just for the sake of spending it.

IMO if the Orioles believe Bundy-Machado are the real deal and there is little evidence at this point that they will not be, then it makes sense to wait. If you feel you may need to add a FA who comes with some significant cost, that guy should be obtained at a point when they can have maximum impact and perhaps put your team over the top. With another year of development guys like Bundy, Machado, Gaussman and maybe even Schoop will be better players (or so we hope). Add in guys like Weiters, Tillman, Jones, Davis hopefully continuing to mature then your sitting in a good position. Its at that point were a guy like a Hamilton, Swisher, etc might be a good add and provide you with that extra something that can propel you to a championship IMO. Upton (Arizona) variety is young enough he may have been a good get but his trade cost (in terms of talent) was to much.

I am not saying that there was nobody who could have helped this team or that is not good enough as constructed to compete. I am just saying that there is reason to believe that come next offseason or 2014 they will be even better. Yes Bundy could blow out his arm...IMO thats all the more reason to wait. Sign a Hamilton or Swisher etc now and if someone does not reach the level hoped for or is injured, you have little budget space to address that need. Sometimes it more about the timing of when you spend the money than anything else.

[jjnono]

I thought the extra dough required to land LaRoche was a no-brainer. Alas, it seems that pesky 23rd pick and some slot money won out over having another gold glover in our infield and a swing tailor-made for Camden in the lineup everyday... Wonder how the pitchers feel about that 23rd pick? Pitching, defense and three-run homers. LaRoche would have contributed two out of the three... It's still disappointing.

But if that's the only thing that I don't agree with, well, the FO didn't do anything monumentally stupid, either. I think it's an 85 win team as constructed, +/- 5 wins. If things break our way again, then we could be in the playoffs as a wildcard. If not, we finish third or fourth. Anything under 75 wins - without injuries - would have to be seen as a huge bummer and a regression and a signal that unless help is immediately available in 2014, we need to seek outside moves to compete.

At the very least, the lack of offseason activity or upgrades beyond depth signings will provide a very clear Mason Dixon line for the inevitable I Told You So debate that will erupt if the O's season turns to mush. Which side will you be on?

[Can_of_corn]

I thought the extra dough required to land LaRoche was a no-brainer. Alas, it seems that pesky 23rd pick and some slot money won out over having another gold glover in our infield and a swing tailor-made for Camden in the lineup everyday... Wonder how the pitchers feel about that 23rd pick? Pitching, defense and three-run homers. LaRoche would have contributed two out of the three... It's still disappointing.

But if that's the only thing that I don't agree with, well, the FO didn't do anything monumentally stupid, either. I think it's an 85 win team as constructed, +/- 5 wins. If things break our way again, then we could be in the playoffs as a wildcard. If not, we finish third or fourth. Anything under 75 wins - without injuries - would have to be seen as a huge bummer and a regression and a signal that unless help is immediately available in 2014, we need to seek outside moves to compete.

At the very least, the lack of offseason activity or upgrades beyond depth signings will provide a very clear Mason Dixon line for the inevitable I Told You So debate that will erupt if the O's season turns to mush. Which side will you be on?

I don't think LaRoche had any intention of signing anywhere but with the Nationals. The best the O's could have done is jack up the price a bit.

[jjnono]

Easily possible. But I thought letting Reynolds go meant they were serious about LaRoche. Turns out they were serious about Davis. Who knows, that might work out pretty well. IF Reimold stays healthy, he can help supplant Reynolds' power numbers. IF Davis learns to play first at a good level, he can take up the slack of Reynolds' glove. But those are big IFs, IFs that LaRoche doesn't have.... But again, you're probably right. Although a three year deal might have done it...

[Can_of_corn]

Easily possible. But I thought letting Reynolds go meant they were serious about LaRoche. Turns out they were serious about Davis. Who knows, that might work out pretty well. IF Reimold stays healthy, he can help supplant Reynolds' power numbers. IF Davis learns to play first at a good level, he can take up the slack of Reynolds' glove. But those are big IFs, IFs that LaRoche doesn't have.... But again, you're probably right. Although a three year deal might have done it...

I know Davis' numbers look good in the minors but I can't forget him dropping throws that hit him in the glove.

Lot of undefined quantities on this team.

[Greg]

Dan Connolly ‏@danconnollysun

LHP Arthur Rhodes, 43, threw for #Orioles today at OPaCY, hoping for a ST invite. He hasn't pitched in MLB since 2011, but lives in Balt.

Dan Connolly ‏@danconnollysun

While in the Dom. Rep. this week, #Orioles brass worked out OF/INF Fernando Tatis, 38, who played for Os in 2006. Last played w Mets in 2010

[jjnono]

I know Davis' numbers look good in the minors but I can't forget him dropping throws that hit him in the glove.

Lot of undefined quantities on this team.

Right, and I think it's a lot to ask of this team to essentially repeat everything that happened last year. There's no question in my mind that LaRoche would have made us better. At worst, he would have made us no worse. I dunno, I figured if Angelos was going to pay, that would have been the moderate, low-risk move to make (as opposed to, say, Hamilton, with all it's high-risk, high-reward qualities that Angelos' has loathed since Belle...)

[jjnono]

But again, if everyone stays healthy, the pitching stays good to very good, we should be ok.

I think... :scratchchinhmm:

[bobmc]

Well, with one day to go in January and pitchers and catchers reporting in two weeks, I'm throwing in the towel on the offseason. After arguably the best and most fun season of baseball I could have ever asked for, I was expecting some big moves to be made. I'm not saying I was expecting Josh Hamilton or anything, but I was hoping we wouldn't stand pat.

DD has once again bolstered the depth and that's always a good thing. I was just hoping for a little more sizzle this offseason after such a magical 2012 year.

Oh well. Pitchers and catchers, pitchers and catchers, pitchers and catchers...

JTrea on 'ludes? :scratchchinhmm:

[scOtt]

I still believe that Elimination Joe is coming back.

I do too. Absolutely. The team wants it, Adair wants it and JOE wants it. If all his offers are relatively equal, and another week or two pass, Joe's going to want to come here.

[scOtt]

And I neglected my smiley. No, I don't expect anyone over 30 to improve. Unless they are a left handed reliever.

Hardy should improve to his mean. Improve some as he IS 30!

[scOtt]

Sometimes the best move is the one not made. I would have loved to see the Orioles add a MOO bat or #1/#2 type pitcher but the simple truth is that the value was not there and when your talking about a youngish team on the upswing it makes sense to not spend money just for the sake of spending it.

IMO if the Orioles believe Bundy-Machado are the real deal and there is little evidence at this point that they will not be, then it makes sense to wait. If you feel you may need to add a FA who comes with some significant cost, that guy should be obtained at a point when they can have maximum impact and perhaps put your team over the top. With another year of development guys like Bundy, Machado, Gaussman and maybe even Schoop will be better players (or so we hope). Add in guys like Weiters, Tillman, Jones, Davis hopefully continuing to mature then your sitting in a good position. Its at that point were a guy like a Hamilton, Swisher, etc might be a good add and provide you with that extra something that can propel you to a championship IMO. Upton (Arizona) variety is young enough he may have been a good get but his trade cost (in terms of talent) was to much.

I am not saying that there was nobody who could have helped this team or that is not good enough as constructed to compete. I am just saying that there is reason to believe that come next offseason or 2014 they will be even better. Yes Bundy could blow out his arm...IMO thats all the more reason to wait. Sign a Hamilton or Swisher etc now and if someone does not reach the level hoped for or is injured, you have little budget space to address that need. Sometimes it more about the timing of when you spend the money than anything else.

ALL that SteveO said! This team wasn't supposed to make the playoffs last year. They improved the ML team and the minors even more. Things just worked out really well. This year's team was supposed to be better and stronger and m a y b e make the playoffs. Which is about where I think we are, best case make the playoffs. But we still have Bundy and Gausman and Machado and Schoop, and all the rest. In the organization for this year, along with whomever we draft this year with the pick we didn't give up

I have no idea how this year will turn out, but this is DEFINITELY a team on the rise!

[Frobby]

LF McLouth .694 OPS pretty sure he'll do better than that.

SS Hardy .671 should do better.

Not sure why you expect players on the wrong side of 30 to improve.

I think the expression "the wrong side of 30," especially as used here, is one of the laziest expressions in baseball. Are you honestly saying that we should never expect a player who is 30+ years old to have a better year than he had the year before? That's a little like saying that we should never expect a day in September to be warmer than a day in August.

J.J. Hardy is exactly 30. He had the second-worst OPS of his career last year, after having his second-best OPS year in 2011. His OPS was 59 points below his career average. There is plenty of reason to expect him to improve. Is it a certainty? Of course not. Are the odds better than 50/50? I'd say they are much better than 50/50. Bil James has him at .728, CAIRO has him at .715, Rotochamp has him at .745. These are all projection systems that consider age as a factor, but also look at career performance and various variables.

Nate McLouth is 31. Guessing his 2013 performance is more complicated, given the odd arc of his career the last few years. On February 1, 2010, you certainly wouldn't have been projecting him for a .620 OPS that season. In his case, you either buy into his "story" and feel he still has the tools to be well over .694 OPS, or you don't. Bill James has him at .726, CAIRO has him at .711, and Rotochamp has him at .733.

Bottom line, while it is generally true that players decline in their 30's, it's not at all a certain, linear function for any individual player. And the decline expected at 30-31 is pretty minimal, even on a macro scale looking at the average performance of a large sample of players. In these cases, there are plenty of reasons to expect these particular players, in their very early 30's, to have better offensive seasons in 2013 than they had in 2012.

[Can_of_corn]

I think the expression "the wrong side of 30," especially as used here, is one of the laziest expressions in baseball. Are you honestly saying that we should never expect a player who is 30+ years old to have a better year than he had the year before? That's a little like saying that we should never expect a day in September to be warmer than a day in August.

You shouldn't expect a particular day in September to be warmer then a particular day in August. Doesn't mean it can't happen but you shouldn't expect September 14th to be warmer then August 8th. It certainly can be but in projecting the weather later this year you certainly wouldn't expect it to be.

Similarly if a player over 30 is healthy in both years you shouldn't expect his numbers to increase as he ages. Doesn't mean it can't happen, it just shouldn't be expected to happen.

If Hardy was suffering from some rare neurological disorder which caused him to pull the ball constantly and refuse to take walks, and he was cured of said disorder in the offseason then yes, I would expect his numbers to improve.

[SilentJames]

Hey we could have had Butler, Dickey, Upton, or maybe even Stanton. All we had to do was give up Bundy.

Exactly.

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