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Adam Jones- Where are the homeruns?


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But you see for some home runs are all that count. Or so it seems. I am not

worried about him. If he hits and drives in runs I am happy. IMO

The thing is, last season when he was hitting a lot of homers people were saying the homers were great, but good hitters walk more. Now that he has a seemingly more patient approach, people are worrying about power.

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We have also not played many games in Home run parks lately. The start of the season is cold and the ball doesn't carry quite as well. We have not had many home games and the away games have been in Oakland, Seattle, and Minnesota. Some rather large parks in cold weather areas which makes it harder. Lets see what happens when the weather gets warmer and he plays more games at home. He has been a better power hitter at home then the road over his career.

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His current OBP is driven by a likely artificially high batting average (.370+ BABIP against a historically lower .305-.325). There is a solid chance he falls back some and ends up where he generally has been -- .280-.285/.320-.325.

His HR/FB rate is below what you'd generally expect from him, which is the opposite of last year where it was artificially inflated through the first few months. Anything can happen in one year, but I'd count on him getting back up to around 17-19% HR/FB rate, which should land him in the 24-28 HR range.

Forced to guess, I'd estimate .285/.335, 27 HR when all is said and done.

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His current OBP is driven by a likely artificially high batting average (.370+ BABIP against a historically lower .305-.325). There is a solid chance he falls back some and ends up where he generally has been -- .280-.285/.320-.325.

His HR/FB rate is below what you'd generally expect from him, which is the opposite of last year where it was artificially inflated through the first few months. Anything can happen in one year, but I'd count on him getting back up to around 17-19% HR/FB rate, which should land him in the 24-28 HR range.

Forced to guess, I'd estimate .285/.335, 27 HR when all is said and done.

And those numbers would be just fine and worth the money he is making.

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And those numbers would be just fine and worth the money he is making.

I think he'll absolutely be worth his pay. That said, it would be nice in the context of an extension to get well over value for your dollars. His defense is unlikely to get any better, which means he'll need to maintain these numbers over the course of his contract, and increase a bit if he has to shift out of center at some point. In any event, I'd be surprised if his contract turned out to be a bad one. There's also still a chance Baltimore makes out really well, particularly if Jones catches lightening in a bottle one or two of his years and avoids any significant injuries.

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His current OBP is driven by a likely artificially high batting average (.370+ BABIP against a historically lower .305-.325). There is a solid chance he falls back some and ends up where he generally has been -- .280-.285/.320-.325.

His HR/FB rate is below what you'd generally expect from him, which is the opposite of last year where it was artificially inflated through the first few months. Anything can happen in one year, but I'd count on him getting back up to around 17-19% HR/FB rate, which should land him in the 24-28 HR range.

Forced to guess, I'd estimate .285/.335, 27 HR when all is said and done.

How is his batting average artificially high? That makes no sense at all.you might think it will go down but there is nothing artificial about it.

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How is his batting average artificially high? That makes no sense at all.you might think it will go down but there is nothing artificial about it.

Because his BABIP is way up from his career norms, meaning he's been lucky and it will most likely regress to around his career norms?

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As well as Jones has been doing, I am still concerned that he's been pulling EVERYTHING. That's not a good sign going forward. Sure, he's going to pull some mistakes (and he's not missing them right now) but in the long run it will come back to bite him if he doesn't adjust his approach.

Right, at the start of the year he had been going to RF more and he's gone back to his old ways. I guess we can look for more waving swings at sliders low and away.

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