Jump to content

Adam Jones- Where are the homeruns?

atom_25

By atom_25
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

Posted
Posted
But you see for some home runs are all that count. Or so it seems. I am not

worried about him. If he hits and drives in runs I am happy. IMO

The thing is, last season when he was hitting a lot of homers people were saying the homers were great, but good hitters walk more. Now that he has a seemingly more patient approach, people are worrying about power.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 367
  • Created
  • Last Reply
bpilktree Hangout Grand Counsel

bpilktree

Posted
Posted

We have also not played many games in Home run parks lately. The start of the season is cold and the ball doesn't carry quite as well. We have not had many home games and the away games have been in Oakland, Seattle, and Minnesota. Some rather large parks in cold weather areas which makes it harder. Lets see what happens when the weather gets warmer and he plays more games at home. He has been a better power hitter at home then the road over his career.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

Posted
Posted

His current OBP is driven by a likely artificially high batting average (.370+ BABIP against a historically lower .305-.325). There is a solid chance he falls back some and ends up where he generally has been -- .280-.285/.320-.325.

His HR/FB rate is below what you'd generally expect from him, which is the opposite of last year where it was artificially inflated through the first few months. Anything can happen in one year, but I'd count on him getting back up to around 17-19% HR/FB rate, which should land him in the 24-28 HR range.

Forced to guess, I'd estimate .285/.335, 27 HR when all is said and done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SpinJr Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

SpinJr

Posted
Posted
His current OBP is driven by a likely artificially high batting average (.370+ BABIP against a historically lower .305-.325). There is a solid chance he falls back some and ends up where he generally has been -- .280-.285/.320-.325.

His HR/FB rate is below what you'd generally expect from him, which is the opposite of last year where it was artificially inflated through the first few months. Anything can happen in one year, but I'd count on him getting back up to around 17-19% HR/FB rate, which should land him in the 24-28 HR range.

Forced to guess, I'd estimate .285/.335, 27 HR when all is said and done.

And those numbers would be just fine and worth the money he is making.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

Posted
Posted
And those numbers would be just fine and worth the money he is making.

I think he'll absolutely be worth his pay. That said, it would be nice in the context of an extension to get well over value for your dollars. His defense is unlikely to get any better, which means he'll need to maintain these numbers over the course of his contract, and increase a bit if he has to shift out of center at some point. In any event, I'd be surprised if his contract turned out to be a bad one. There's also still a chance Baltimore makes out really well, particularly if Jones catches lightening in a bottle one or two of his years and avoids any significant injuries.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

Posted
Posted
His current OBP is driven by a likely artificially high batting average (.370+ BABIP against a historically lower .305-.325). There is a solid chance he falls back some and ends up where he generally has been -- .280-.285/.320-.325.

His HR/FB rate is below what you'd generally expect from him, which is the opposite of last year where it was artificially inflated through the first few months. Anything can happen in one year, but I'd count on him getting back up to around 17-19% HR/FB rate, which should land him in the 24-28 HR range.

Forced to guess, I'd estimate .285/.335, 27 HR when all is said and done.

How is his batting average artificially high? That makes no sense at all.you might think it will go down but there is nothing artificial about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

Posted
Posted
How is his batting average artificially high? That makes no sense at all.you might think it will go down but there is nothing artificial about it.

Because his BABIP is way up from his career norms, meaning he's been lucky and it will most likely regress to around his career norms?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

Posted
Posted
As well as Jones has been doing, I am still concerned that he's been pulling EVERYTHING. That's not a good sign going forward. Sure, he's going to pull some mistakes (and he's not missing them right now) but in the long run it will come back to bite him if he doesn't adjust his approach.

Right, at the start of the year he had been going to RF more and he's gone back to his old ways. I guess we can look for more waving swings at sliders low and away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Posts

    • gretzkyscores
      I think bringing in Kimbrel in the ninth was a very stupid decision.He should NOT have been in the game at all tonight.

      By gretzkyscores · Posted

      Agree 100%
    • CaptainRedbeard
      Grade the Eflin Trade

      By CaptainRedbeard · Posted

      I wonder how people would feel if Eflin’s ERA this season started with a 3 - like every single more predictive measure (3.37 xERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA) - instead of being a ghastly 4.09.  For those hoping for somebody better - who exactly do you think is better who is potentially available other than Skubal and Crochet? Fedde has been better this year, but last year he was in Korea and Eflin had a 4.7 fWAR season with a 3.50 ERA. I’d still take Eflin over him going forward, even if it’s close. More importantly, he’s also owed only $7.5M next year to Eflin’s $18M, so the trade price will be MUCH higher and every single team looking for pitching can afford him next year and is competing for him. Taking Eflin’s salary lowered the competition and the prospect capital and is EXACTLY the type of deal the Orioles should be doing with their payroll flexibility. Snell was horrible this year, then hurt, and now maybe himself again. Even if you think he’s good going forward now, he’s a rental with the anchor of a potential $31M salary next year if he gets injured or starts struggling again.  Bassitt is good, but by all predictive measures other than ERA still worse than Eflin this year, but he’s 35 and owed even more next year ($21M). And the reports are he’s not even available.  Taillon is fine, but not better than Eflin - everything in his profile is pointing to a 4+ ERA much more than Eflin. Rangers are not trading Eovaldi or Scherzer now. Luzardo maybe, but he’s hurt and MIA may not be trading him either.  Am I missing anybody? I’d love to add any of these guys too and don’t think the Orioles should stop here. But Eflin was arguably the best available, and definitely the best fit in terms of the balance of prospect capital vs. taking on salary. To boot they also added added to a rotation next year that right now only has Grayson and Kremer.  I can understand wanting a more impressive high K, ace SP type in theory, but with all of this context I don’t know how you could think anything other than loving this deal. 
    • Chromehill
      Clubhouse issues?

      By Chromehill · Posted

      Which indicates that this is currently not a good team.  Question marks everywhere. If your not playing and not happy about it, make the most of the chances when you get them.
    • Roll Tide
      Organizational Turmoil?

      By Roll Tide · Posted

      Where there smoke ….
    • drjohnnyfever1
      Organizational Turmoil?

      By drjohnnyfever1 · Posted

      i agree with what those who are saying the vets might be a little miffed with uncertain contract futures looming.  But the reality is the young guys are going to be auditioned adequately before summarily being brought up just to take their "rightful" places now filled by vets. I don't have any problem with how Elias is handling talent either in the farm or on the MLB team.  And after reflecting a while on a position I had about trading long-term O's during a Playoff/WS run - basically, that Elias would show some deference to guys that got us here - I've flopped on that.  What I think is happening is that the audition process is concluding in some ways.  Had Hays come out like an All-Star again this year, I still think he would have/ could have been traded, but for maybe a higher net.  Cowser and Kierstadt have, by now, proven themselves - so to speak, and having control of them, makes them more valuable, particularly since both were outperforming Hays.  I think Mullins could be next.  To me, it was basically a "prove it" year for anyone competing for OF positions.  My biggest question is do they amp up the "try outs" for 2nd and 3rd base now.
    • sevastras
      I think bringing in Kimbrel in the ninth was a very stupid decision.He should NOT have been in the game at all tonight.

      By sevastras · Posted

      What I was saying yesterday is without Burnes, he moved into that spot at the top of the rotation for the team as currently constructed. I’m not saying next year he will be a CY candidate, although he has great stuff and has the potential to do so if he can put it all together. 
    • Aristotelian
      Organizational Turmoil?

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      Actually it's clear to me that there is no reporting. No quotes or even "sources say".

  • Popular Contributors

  • Popular Now

×
×
  • Create New...