Ugh. Are we going to have to blow it up?

[SteveO]

Even though I know as an O's fan my team will not be the one that shells out the mega bucks for a premier free agent, I always feel a sense of excitement at the possibilities that could exist to improve the team and take a step closer to the success we all want to see. This year I feel like a kid who lit a firecracker only to have the joy sucked out the experience when it turns out to be a dud.

My question is two fold. First what combination of FA players or acquisitions via trade would the Orioles have to get in order for you to feel that they have put out a team that can compete for a WS Championship. Be realistic but feel free to say that it will take an increase in payroll to make you happy if that's how you feel. I thought it would be interesting to see the spectrum of what peoples expectations are for a successful offseason.

Part two is this. Should the Orioles not increase payroll what moves can DD make to make you feel like he did the best he could with what he had to work with?

[SteveO]

That's what I said. I blame the people who are feeding the media the baloney. And they don't necessarily have to represent the Orioles - they could work for other MLB teams.

Hot stove speculation has always been a part of baseball since the advent of FA. Fans are not complete morons contrary to popular belief. The kind of fan who spends time reading about trade rumors and FA signings generally are smart enough to learn from experience/over time to take reports/rumors with some degree of skepticism.

Most of the discontent right now has to do with the fact that we finally have a core of players that you can look at say...."yea with the right cast supporting them they could actually have a better than punchers chance of winning it all" and yet we are doing nothing while other teams are making moves to get better in some cases. I truly believe fan base of team and city is teetering between going into despair followed by another round of apathy OR going completely nutty insane Oriole crazy if this team would just give them a reason to. You saw a glimpse of it 2 yrs ago. Even though last year did not go as well as hoped there is still an anticipation and energy that could be capitalized on if they just gave people a reason to let it out.

[Roll Tide]

An event that puts the Orioles on the market for sale to a group not owned by someone with the last name Angelos.

[section18]

The Orioles front office, ownership and the marketing department need to sit down, look each other straight in the eye and say...we are in this together and we need to run on all cylinders during the winter meetings. To some people this week rivals NFL Draft week. All baseball fans listen to the news on radio, TV and on the internet. MLB Network is on all day long for four straight days and part of Sunday the day before the meetings start broadcasting with most of the GM'S and Managers. The players tune in as well looking to hear which free agents signed, to hear where they are going and to hear about trades. We are set up for this week because the GM meetings were held in Florida several weeks earlier and we were told teams laid the ground work with agents and other GM's for future trades and free agent signings. So what happens year after year during the Winter Meetings for the Orioles? Usually nothing worth writing about. Yes they have to have add a Rule 5 draft player to the roster and maybe sign some players for our AA and AAA teams. The entourage that goes to the Winter Meetings must not check back in Baltimore with their wifes to hear what's being talked about on sports talk radio shows and during TV station news updates. The front office people literally must live in a goldfish bowl while they attend these meetings. When you hear some players don't go where they received the highest offer it makes you wonder if this will ever happen with the Orioles. The week of the winter meetings is a prime time for the Orioles to take back the front page from the Ravens and a perfect time to sell merchandise for gifts during the holiday season. It's not too late. The Orioles need to do a better job in the future. Failure to make trades and sign free agents during this week leave people wondering if they have competent people running the team. It makes most people wonder why they bother attending the meetings.

[hoosiers]

This franchise was in shambles when Buck and later, DD, took over. There was unanimous agreement that they would have to take time and build the minor leagues before we could compete again. All of us would have been happy to have a slow progress to last years record. But, 2012 happened. So, now we are back in 1997 mode. Sorry, but we tried that once and it didn't work. The money given to 30+ guys isn't just unwise, it is ridiculous. In the post steroid era, free agents aren't even close to what they get paid. So, sorry, I don't regret missing out on any of them. I'll take the under when it comes to Cano and 20 hrs in safeco. Ellsbury's assets don't translate long term. How do the Angels feel about Pujols and Hamilton?

My best guess is that we could have a payroll of 125 million without challenging Mr. Scrooge. We need to use the money to extend Davis, Machado, and yes, Hardy. Nick and Weiters can play out their contracts and go elsewhere.

I'm old enough to remember how the O's used to compete against richer teams. We need to get back to that to have any hope of long term success imho.

I am not really sure where the notion that the franchise was in shambles before DD and BS took over. I hope these two form an above average front office/coaching tandem for a long, long time, but "shambles" is a tremendous reach, IMO.

Perhaps someone can do a more thorough analysis in another thread, but last year, in 2013, the Os received nearly 21 WAR from Machado, Davis, Hardy and Jones at a cost of about $19.3M on the hitting side and 8.4 WAR for about $4.5M from Tillman, Hunter and O'Day on the pitching side. All of these talents were in the organization before our current FO came into being. Not included in the above were bullpen contributors JJohnson, Matusz and Patton 2.7 WAR for about $9M.

My understanding is that the franchise was in the process of signing Chen when DD arrived, but let's give DD credit for that signing and he obviously deserves credit for the initial McClouth signing in 2012 and the re-signing in 2013 plus clear credit to DD and his international super-scout FredF for MiGon. Chen, McClouth and MiGon contributed 5.4 WAR at a cost of slightly above $6M. Flaherty was also picked up in DD's tenure and produced 1 WAR at the league minimum.

That is about 38 WAR from three starters, five relievers and six position players for a cost of around $40M! The core of the team inherited by DD and BS can hardly be considered "shambilicious" IMO

Not trying to turn this into an AM vs DD thread, but more to show what decisions DD and BS made that impacted the rest of the team. First, IMO, it should be noted that DD and BS should get credit for finding, keeping and developing the names above. I mean, DD didn't deal Davis or Tillman when their values were less and DD and BS had the patience to play these guys and wait for them to develop into all-stars. So that's fine.

But let's look at the rest of the roster. BRob and Nick contributed about .6 WAR for $25M. Both of these contracts were inherited by DD and we can presume these two were untradeable. However, after a terrible start from Flaherty in April and May, Flaherty hit in June to an OPS of .823 over 22 games and then played second fiddle at second base to BRob who hit .704 from his late June return to the end of the season while Flaherty started on 18 more games despite keeping up his hot June ways by hitting over .820 in those 18 games. Obviously, Buck kept filling out the lineup card with Nick practically all season giving Nick and his .685 OPS 700 PAs. Would another manager have kept Flaherty in for BRob or sat Nick? Maybe, maybe not. Steve Pearce earned .5 WAR for $700k over 130 PAs - a number which actually projects to 2 WAR over 550 or so PAs, but after a slow start in April, Pearce provided an OPS of .814 in 11 May starts, but only received 17 starts the rest of the season - at least partially due to injury when he hit the DL twice - missing all but one day in July and half of September. Wieters played to a .4 WAR at $5.5M after producing 5.1 and 3.4 WAR the prior two years - obviously a big factor.

If we are to give credit to DD for Chen, DD should get tagged for spending $4M on Wada in 2013 and DD traded for Hammel at the beginning of 2012 and paid JHam $6.75M for approx. 0 WAR. DD/BS gave a starter's job in Arrieta who performed to -.4 WAR at the minimum over 5 starts.

IMO, things really start to fall apart over the remaining DD decisions:

Of the remaining hitters earning over 50 ABs, there were about 500 ABs given to Reimold, Casilla, Dickerson, Teagarden, Urrutia and Betemit (all decisions to acquire by DD except for Reimold who DD chose to retain) at a -1 WAR clip at a cost near or in excess of $5M.

DD made decisions to give 39 starts to Gausman, Garcia, Feldman and Norris for a net of .3 WAR costing, traded for KRod .2 WAR, Morse -.5 WAR. A full year bp spot to McFarland generated .3 WAR at the minimum.

I am losing the math, but DD spent about $9M (pro-rating the salaries of Morse, Feldman and Norris and unable to find the $ paid to KRod and Dickerson) to play Gausman, Garcia, Feldman, Norris, KRod, Morse, McFarland, Reimold, Casilla, Dickerson, Teagarden, Urrutia and Betemit for a net WAR production approaching negative 1 WAR. I am not sure how other teams fill out the bottom of their rosters, perhaps not so well, but really very few of the DD pickups in 2013 provided a big upside return, IMO, and this coupled with the sub-par efforts from Hammel and Wada really underscore DD spending over $20M at negative WAR.

The team clearly fell short of the playoffs IMO on the backs of dismal efforts from Wieters and Markakis and perhaps the injury to Bundy, but DD attempts to fill out the bottom of the roster did not have a productive effect (and perhaps the ideas of acquiring some of those guys was nice in concept, but the actual results were clearly mediocre ..... again noting that mediocre might be how many other GMs fill out the bottoms of their rosters). But it is not like DD didn't have $ to create the bottom portion of the roster to his own liking.

[section18]

The Orioles front office, ownership and the marketing department need to sit down, look each other straight in the eye and say...we are in this together and we need to run on all cylinders during the winter meetings. To some people this week rivals NFL Draft week. All baseball fans listen to the news on radio, TV and on the internet. MLB Network is on all day long for four straight days and part of Sunday the day before the meetings start broadcasting with most of the GM'S and Managers. The players tune in as well looking to hear which free agents signed, to hear where they are going and to hear about trades. We are set up for this week because the GM meetings were held in Florida several weeks earlier and we were told teams laid the ground work with agents and other GM's for future trades and free agent signings. So what happens year after year during the Winter Meetings for the Orioles? Usually nothing worth writing about. Yes they have to add a Rule 5 draft player to the roster and maybe sign some players for our AA and AAA teams. The entourage that goes to the Winter Meetings must not check back in Baltimore with their wifes to hear what's being talked about on sports talk radio shows and during TV station news updates. The front office people literally must live in a goldfish bowl while they attend these meetings. When you hear some players don't go where they received the highest offer it makes you wonder if this will ever happen with the Orioles. The week of the winter meetings is a prime time for the Orioles to take back the front page from the Ravens and a perfect time to sell merchandise for gifts during the holiday season. It's not too late. The Orioles need to do a better job in the future. Failure to make trades and sign free agents during this week leave people wondering if they have competent people running the team. It makes most people wonder why they bother attending the meetings.

Last edited by section18; Today at 04:01 AM.

[scOtt]

If God is All-Powerful... can he make a rock so heavy that even HE can't lift it?

[notyourbuddy]

Will we be competitive for many years to come? Well I guess that depends on your definition of competitive. If simply finishing near or above .500 and adding a third place trophy to the showcase is still the goal around here then I guess our future is bright - our core can probably muster that for a few years. If we want to be serious threats in the East and in the Playoffs however I'm less confident.

JJ Hardy, Wieters, and Davis could all be walking out the door very soon, which could decimate our offense and slam the door on our window to win. Gausman & Bundy potentially becoming legit starters could offset this loss of talent somewhat, but that is no sure thing. Remember we have had to send quite a many horses to the glue factory already. Matusz will soon be earning more than he is worth (so could be let go in the near future) and guys like Patton, Flaherty, and Valencia are no lock to be contributors in any capacity in the long-term. We have seen many of these types come and go over the years.

And while a lot of your plan does look good on paper so did our plans for the last half-decade when we had Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen, Britton, and God knows who else penciled into our rotation; BRob a lock for the leadoff spot; Nick as a competent on-base doubles machine; and Wieters turning water into wine. I'm sure if you made this same post last year you'd have Pedro Strop penciled in through 2017. Funny how quickly things change, eh? The fact is best case paper scenarios tend to be little more than pipe-dreams. There will be hiccups and unforeseen catastrophes. Players will suffer injuries (Bundy/Roberts/Chen). Prospects will flop or struggle (Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Loewen, Penn, et al). Others will inexplicably decline (Markakis/Strop).

We need real backup plans for once so that when these things do happen we won't miss a beat. Where is our LF, our DH, 2B, and our reliable starter? Why are these jobs being handed to AAAA's, Utility players, and DL squatters for a second year in a row? Its the same ole' "What Ifs" and "Maybes" game we always play that leaves us in panic mode when they inevitably fail.

And now a big part of our World Series plan seems to be relying on a bunch of reject AAA fillers that wouldn't even make a Top 20 prospects list in a weak farm system. Having a guy in charge whose seems to spend half his offseason staring at a board with the words "Rule V" on it and the other half regurgitating talking points from an owner who still thinks a loaf of bread costs a nickel.

We saw last year... that what we all feared was the truth was indeed the truth. That we have a nice core of players, that make for an above average team, in a league where simply being above average isn't good enough.

DD still has 3 months to alter my perception, but as of right now I am not as impressed with what he is doing as you are. Last offseason was a disaster and this one is shaping up to be a repeat performance. This is not a good trend for DD. And if his pi?ce de r?sistance this offseason ends up being John ******* Axford I may very well bust a nut in anger. I know he is sitting at his desk, staring at that jar of marbles, contemplating it, but don't do it DD. Don't you dare.

[foxfield]

DD still has 3 months to alter my perception, but as of right now I am not as impressed with what he is doing as you are. Last offseason was a disaster and this one is shaping up to be a repeat performance. This is not a good trend for DD. And if his pi?ce de r?sistance this offseason ends up being John ******* Axford I may very well bust a nut in anger. I know he is sitting at his desk, staring at that jar of marbles, contemplating it, but don't do it DD. Don't you dare.

I think this is as good a place as any.....

The above two quotes with the exception of the piece I have included above are both excellent posts, and encapsulate without hyperbole, where this team is and why the two sides are both closer to the truth than much of the off season banter over previous seasons. I do agree that last offseason was a miscalculation as to what we needed to get over the hump. And in theory, I agree that the remainder of this offseason will go a long way towards determining where we are as a franchise. But more importantly, the two posts above represent the challenge of being in the AL East. We can be one of the 6 best teams in baseball...and still finish 4th. That is an incredibly high bar. And that is why of all of the holes we try to fill this offseason, the one that I believe is most important is a strong #1 candidate for SP.

[SoBo]

I'm as frustrated as the next guy with another typical O's offseason. But I'm constantly reminded of the old Tommy Lasorda quote "if you start worrying about the people in the stands, before too long you're up in the stands with them." Now that quote hasn't exactly held water for most of the Angelos era. But after 15 losing seasons the duo of DD and Buck has brought us a few home playoff games and a playoff race in back to back years. So I'm willing to give them some rope this off season.

I will say most of my angst is the idea that Davis and Wieters are most likely going to walk. But until that happens I guess I'll enjoy their efforts.

[Fla_O'sfan]

And now the Rays get into the act with a $21 million/ 3 year deal for James Loney! What's the matter with these teams trying to buy a pennant? It didn't work for Toronto.....or Miami either.

[OsLuvrInKy]

Agree completely with your assertions

Would also add beyond the attendance issues the Orioles have seen their once proud brand take a significant nose dive in the minds of of the fans of Baltimore. People who would casually follow the team and watch a few games on TV etc...stopped caring. People who followed pretty closely fell off and became casual fans.

I think its a pretty interesting dichotomy when you look at the fates of the two major Baltimore sports teams. While the Ravens have benefited from the immense popularity of the NFL, I also believe they have won the hearts of the Baltimore sports fans as a result of their obvious commitment to winning. That starts and ends with the ownership and the ownerships willingness to commit both the financial and personnel backing required to be successful. While Steve B clearly has a voice in big things such as the Flacco extension etc... it is also clear that he lets his football people do what they do. It is also clear that he expects excellence and expects to win. That attitude has been backed up by results. On the other hand you have Pete who in the midst of countless losing seasons babbles on about spending when the time is right. One owner comes off as strong, confident and committed to excellence. The other looks indecisive, aloof often but yet at other times inopportune times meddlesome. I feel pretty safe in saying that if the O's win a World Series under the ownership of Peter Angelos it will be in spite of him and not because of his leadership.

This comment has been posted here on this board a few times before. Truest statement I have ever seen posted.

[weams]

I'm an Orioles fan. I can be upset with whatever I wish. I am not part of the problem. I attend, I have a passion for the team, you can't make me support a different team by bullying, insult, or torment. I do not have to like front office moves or disposition of ownership profits. I'm an Oriole fan. You can't mock me for it. It's what I am.

[BobbyWoontz]

Not all of us are customers, but most are fans!

[PA Bird Fan]

Burnett and Balfour would be a good start.