Ugh. Are we going to have to blow it up?

[xKHx]

This discussion could use its very own.

Ok so DD has confines to work in. Right around 100 million. You can be mad at Angelos or whoever you want but I would like to discuss why they are not taking advantage of the money that is afforded to them.

1. DD had the chance to trade JJ last year for much more then he got now. We all knew what his arb year was this year so why was this not planned for better? Instead of getting very good talent he strapped himself within a month deadline and pulled a bad catcher and Weeks.

Point is if you have a budget to work in you have to make tough decisions. While we are on this do we really need to reallocate those funds for 2 years of Balfour? Does anyone else see the nonsensical of a move this has become when three other teams are going for him? Trading your talent for cost controlled prospects (that can be within a two years or less of service time) should be the plan. Not players close to the end of arb or big contracts.

2. Why keep mid tier contracts and dead weight on the roster. Shields, Huff, Price, Garza all need to be examples of dealing players while their stock is high because you can not afford to keep them to far into arb.

3. Stop with the over price second tier players. Why look in to Nelson Cruz? 4 years 60 mil is way to much. That would account for 15% of our payroll and way to much for a payroll in the 100 mill.

Having a few stars on the team along with growing your Starters/bullpen through minor league cost controlled talent. Seems like gms want to max out the payroll here with half a team hold on to the stars to long and be invested way to heavy with bad contracts. The meddling between the two theories drives me nuts.

[El Gordo]

The simple answer is we are trying to do two things at once. Rebuild a dysfunctional MiL system, and keep a ML team competitive. The fans expect a competitive team after 2012. But we lack the MiL pieces to trade for ML upgrades needed, and we don't have the budget to fill those slots with FA. The simple solution would be for Scrooge McDuck to free up a little more FA cash. God knows he has enough of it, but he won't. So DD is between a rock and a hard place.

[Sanfran327]

Seriously. Not a "sky is falling" thread. It's a legitimate question. But if we aren't going to spend FA money and try to follow the Tampa/Oakland/Minnesota model, shouldn't we just try to trade off everybody but Manny and AJ and stock up the farm system? I think a "core four" of Manny, AJ, Bundy, and Gausman would play nicely if we can identify, obtain, and develop the right prospects.

I always think of SG's old Billy Beane sig line quote. Something to the effect of "You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." We are smack dab in between. I think we are very close, but not close enough, and unless Schoop, Urrutia, Flaherty, and Gausman are ready to step up and play starting OD 2014 and be real contributors, I just don't see how we're going to compete for a championship. I'd rather work towards a 2016/17 championship than compete for 82 wins in 2014.

[Luper2207]

I believe that the orioles can easily afford a payroll in the $100-115 million range however it is difficult to know for sure. My problem this offseason is that the orioles are missing out on valuable opportunities. Not signing Edward Mujica was a mistake. A 2 yr-$10 contract or 3yr-$15 contract would have been a good investment. Balfour is a good back up option so I hope we land him but Mujica would have been a better allocation of funds. I would have been in on Corey Hart too but i am not losing sleep over that. Other than that I am perfectly fine with not signing any of the major free agents.

What I would like to see is Machado and Chris Davis signed to long term deals. Machado could be had for 9 or 10 yrs and $100 million. Is there risk to that, of course, but I would much rather have him cost controlled for the next decade rather than worrying about losing him via free agency in a few years. Once a player reaches arbitration they are getting paid huge amounts of money anyways. Machado made $495,000 last year. He will make under $1 million this year. This is the offseason to mkae him wealthy before he is making $6-10 million in arb. At that point he can see the light at the end of the tunnel and can afford to gamble on his health in hopes of getting that 10 yr $200+ million contract.

As for Davis I would be happy with a 6 yr $100 million contract. I think he would sign in that neighborhood. As for Wieters I have no idea what his trade value is so I would be content playing him 280-300 games over the next 2 seasons. Take his slightly above average value and be content to give him a qualifying offer and let him walk for a draft pick.

[jubbyjubb]

Agree. We can either spend or "do it like Tampa and Oakland." We do neither.

We surely aren't doing it like TB or Oak. Do you think we would have traded away a Garza, Shields and maybe Price. No chance.

Our farm system is horrible (not helped by the bad Bud Norris trade where we give up a .400 career OBP LF, a live young arm and a high draft pick) and the future in 16-17 looks a little rough.

Not winning now and not planning for the future. No direction at all.

[MurphDogg]

Agree. We can either spend or "do it like Tampa and Oakland." We do neither.

We surely aren't doing it like TB or Oak. Do you think we would have traded away a Garza, Shields and maybe Price. No chance.

Our farm system is horrible (not helped by the bad Bud Norris trade where we give up a .400 career OBP LF, a live young arm and a high draft pick) and the future in 16-17 looks a little rough.

Not winning now and not planning for the future. No direction at all.

.400 career OBP?

[Sanfran327]

The thing I hate about Tampa and Oakland's strategy is that while they have good/great regular seasons, they always lack the real firepower needed to make a deep postseason run. 2012 was a hell of a ride and a nice change of pace from the previous 14 years, but I am not looking for another moral victory. I want a championship, plain and simple.

[skanar]

.400 career OBP?

.366 over his time in the minors. It was .403 in 2013 with Norfolk, however.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

.400 career OBP?

.366 actually.

Still very frustrating(to me at least) that he was included in the Norris deal though. I was hopeful that he would get the opportunity to play LF and leadoff this coming year. I think the guy is going to turn out to be a real spark plug type player for a number of years.

[hoosiers]

I'd prefer to see what we could net in trade for some of Wieters, Hardy, Davis and even Adam Jones.

I think any rebuild would go a lot quicker than most think since we have Manny, Tillman, Gausman, Bundy, Schoop and EdRod all at AA and above already.

[AlbionHero]

I'd prefer to see what we could net in trade for some of Wieters, Hardy, Davis and even Adam Jones.

Man, talk about a surefire way to destroy your fanbase. You think the fanbase is upset now? There may not be a fanbase left if we get rid of all of our marquee players.

[Elbren]

Man, talk about a surefire way to destroy your fanbase. You think the fanbase is upset now? There may not be a fanbase left if we get rid of all of our marquee players.

It would be no worse than watching both Wieters and Davis walk in their FA years. They're both Boras clients and, unless they suddenly decide to fire him, he always takes his players to FA and takes the biggest contract available. Hardy will probably be the same unless he decides to take a (very) team friendly deal. No way this team pays market value for him.

Sadly, I also don't see this team making qualifying offers for any of them. So they walk and no draft compensation.

[skanar]

It would be no worse than watching both Wieters and Davis walk in their FA years. They're both Boras clients and, unless they suddenly decide to fire him, he always takes his players to FA and takes the biggest contract available. Hardy will probably be the same unless he decides to take a (very) team friendly deal. No way this team pays market value for him.

Sadly, I also don't see this team making qualifying offers for any of them. So they walk and no draft compensation.

I agree with everything up to here. Why wouldn't the team make QOs? The only risk is that the offer gets accepted, and there's no way Boras would accept one. Hardy's case is a little more complicated than Wieters or Davis, but unless he's pretty awful this year (knock on wood), he's essentially certain to decline.

[Elbren]

I agree with everything up to here. Why wouldn't the team make QOs? The only risk is that the offer gets accepted, and there's no way Boras would accept one. Hardy's case is a little more complicated than Wieters or Davis, but unless he's pretty awful this year (knock on wood), he's essentially certain to decline.

Common sense tells you, yes, you should make QO's to all three of these players. But this team doesn't follow common sense. lol By the time these guys hit FA, what will the QO be valued at? $15 Mil.? $16 Mil.?

I just don't see them making that type of offer to Hardy. I agree that Wieters and Davis are all but guaranteed to turn it down (Boras), but I don't think that matters to this team (i.e., the owner)

Even under the old system, this team refused to offer arbitration to FA's. Even when it was basically guaranteed that they were leaving. When was the last time we had a compensation pick? 8 years ago? 10 years?

[weams]

I am not sure why we were not in on Mujica. But we sure weren't.

I believe that the orioles can easily afford a payroll in the $100-115 million range however it is difficult to know for sure. My problem this offseason is that the orioles are missing out on valuable opportunities. Not signing Edward Mujica was a mistake. A 2 yr-$10 contract or 3yr-$15 contract would have been a good investment. Balfour is a good back up option so I hope we land him but Mujica would have been a better allocation of funds. I would have been in on Corey Hart too but i am not losing sleep over that. Other than that I am perfectly fine with not signing any of the major free agents.

What I would like to see is Machado and Chris Davis signed to long term deals. Machado could be had for 9 or 10 yrs and $100 million. Is there risk to that, of course, but I would much rather have him cost controlled for the next decade rather than worrying about losing him via free agency in a few years. Once a player reaches arbitration they are getting paid huge amounts of money anyways. Machado made $495,000 last year. He will make under $1 million this year. This is the offseason to mkae him wealthy before he is making $6-10 million in arb. At that point he can see the light at the end of the tunnel and can afford to gamble on his health in hopes of getting that 10 yr $200+ million contract.

As for Davis I would be happy with a 6 yr $100 million contract. I think he would sign in that neighborhood. As for Wieters I have no idea what his trade value is so I would be content playing him 280-300 games over the next 2 seasons. Take his slightly above average value and be content to give him a qualifying offer and let him walk for a draft pick.

Good Post.