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Bottom line we need a real closer.


Greg

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Oh haha, pulling the "blown saves are overstated" argument. How did that go with Jim Johnson?

And before anyone says "you can't compare Britton to Johnson", I sure can and I just did. Johnson started going downhill last year against... Toronto was it? Well I happen to think his demise is/was largely mental. Does the same thing happen to Britton, another ground ball pitcher? Time will tell.

And btw, Britton's 15/18 save ratio gives him an 83% save rate. Johnson saved 50/59 games last year, for 85%.

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Donaldson has taken Sale and Mad Bum deep this year. Too exceptional lefties. Moreover, the A's hitters have a large fly ball rate, seemingly to counteract sinker pitchers. Finally, Britton hadn't pitched in nearly a week.

In short, calm down.

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18 save opportunity and Britton has blown 3 that's a red flag. SO closer are just better.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/closers

There is a certain randomness to blown saves in small samples. Show me two pitchers with an equal ERA and WHlP, and I'd say they have an equal chance of converting a save, regardless of whether one is a strikeout pitcher and one is a ground ball pitcher. But if you take a penny and a nickel and flip each 18 times, chances are that one will turn up heads more than the other. That's not because one is a penny and one is a nickel. It just worked out that way.

In Britton's case, he may have been a little rusty with his command and too strong after four days off. Sinkerballers get more sink when they're throwing regularly. It's disappointing that with an ERA and WHIP as low as his, his save rate isn't higher, but in 18 chances, things like that happen. One save vs. blown save makes a 5.6% difference in his save rate. Overall he's doing a good job and hopefully this was just a blip.

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Bottom line, there are very few closers that are so good that it really matters. The rest are like Britton who get's it done most of the time, unless a few bloops go against him. The few guys who matter:

1. Kimbrel

2. Chapman

3. Koji

4. Kenley Jansen

The rest are going to be up and down, have good years and then fade away.

The O's are what they are a seriously flawed team, they strike out way too much, and don't strike out nearly enough opponents. They are last in the majors in taking walks and near the top in giving them out. They are last in the majors in stolen bases.

Perhaps they can hang on and win the AL East, but they don't have a chance against the A's, Angels or Tigers in a playoff series

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Oh haha, pulling the "blown saves are overstated" argument. How did that go with Jim Johnson?

And before anyone says "you can't compare Britton to Johnson", I sure can and I just did. Johnson started going downhill last year against... Toronto was it? Well I happen to think his demise is/was largely mental. Does the same thing happen to Britton, another ground ball pitcher? Time will tell.

And btw, Britton's 15/18 save ratio gives him an 83% save rate. Johnson saved 50/59 games last year, for 85%.

And 85% is not that terrible. League average for a closer is 87-88%. 83% is definitely on the low side, but the percentage fluctuates a lot in small samples. His rate could be back to average or above a month from now. He could pass JJ's percentage in a week. Or, he could blow his next save and be in Kevin Gregg territory.

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Balfour strikes out a lot of guys and I am sure the Rays would trade him for a bucket of balls.

This thread is typical overreaction.

Some of it has been and I wouldn't be surprised if Britton comes back and makes a fine save today or tomorrow. But what does scare me a bit is the fact that both Dempsey and Palmer also "overreacted," while it's Jim Hunter who kept serving up the "It's just bad luck because of the swinging bunt and blooper before the bomb" argument. Specifically, Dempsey said Britton needs an effective non-fast ball pitch to keep hitters honest and Palmer said hitters like Donaldson, having seen Britton and benefited from a ton of data on him, could anticipate the pitch and was ready to slam it. Maybe it's overreaction, but I wouldn't say it's typical of Palmer, especially, to express such concern--one that I find concerning because it's about repertoire and not just bad luck or lacking one's normal command.

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One of the most inane thread starts I have ever seen on the Hangout.

My only beef with Britton is that he throws over 90% fastballs. I want to see more curves, even on 0-0 counts. Even though Britton's 95 mph sinker gets a ton of groundballs, it's never a good plan to let major league hitters know what kind of pitch you are going to throw 9 out of 10 times.

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It is like nails down a chalkboard watching people incorrectly use statistics with an air of confidence. I've got a blackbelt. It isn't that difficult to get one. I'd highly encourage several of you to get one if you're going to continue to try to use goofy statistical arguments to support nonsensical points that are really just emotional reactions to a tough game.

I had to write the OH game story last night. My story was done entering the ninth, but I had to modify it when all hell broke loose. It wasn't fun.

As long as there's been a Hangout there are people who primarily use the messageboard as a way to flush the autonomous, reptilian part of their brain. See bad thing, lash out, go into safe mode, turn off higher brain functions until danger has passed. Used to make me mad, I used to tell people to stop and think before they post. But whatever, it's ok, people need an outlet. It's not like we didn't think the same things, we just didn't put them up for the world to see. Maybe its just our old brains and bodies not having the reflexes that are quick enough to go type nonsense before our cerebral cortex can say "stop!"

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Bottom line, there are very few closers that are so good that it really matters. The rest are like Britton who get's it done most of the time, unless a few bloops go against him. The few guys who matter:

1. Kimbrel

2. Chapman

3. Koji

4. Kenley Jansen

The rest are going to be up and down, have good years and then fade away.

The O's are what they are a seriously flawed team, they strike out way too much, and don't strike out nearly enough opponents. They are last in the majors in taking walks and near the top in giving them out. They are last in the majors in stolen bases.

Perhaps they can hang on and win the AL East, but they don't have a chance against the A's, Angels or Tigers in a playoff series

Orioles hitters are 20th in MLB with a 19.5 K%.

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One of the most inane thread starts I have ever seen on the Hangout.

My only beef with Britton is that he throws over 90% fastballs. I want to see more curves, even on 0-0 counts. Even though Britton's 95 mph sinker gets a ton of groundballs, it's never a good plan to let major league hitters know what kind of pitch you are going to throw 9 out of 10 times.

I'm perfectly fine with Britton, he blew a game, whatever, move on.

But it was just a week or two ago that multiple people told me I was nuts for saying that no pitcher can pitch at optimal effectiveness if the batter knows with 100% certainty what pitch is coming.

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