The "other side" to how AM handled this offseason

[Fan4Life]

This isn't true. Not accounting for opportunity costs is evaluating without complete information. That's never preferable.

Can you provide an example of when this has happened this offseason?

[BaltimoreTerp]

Can you prove me wrong?

Can you prove yourself right? That he doesn't know how to do his job as GM? That he won two World Seres with the Twins and turned around the Cubs while all long having the inability to do more then one thing at a time?

[BaltimoreTerp]

This isn't true. Not accounting for opportunity costs is evaluating without complete information. That's never preferable.

Actually, I was taking that into account (I think; I'm not an economics guy ).

[Lucky Jim]

Actually, I was taking that into account (I think; I'm not an economics guy ).

Hah. Fair enough. Yes - if you're discounting for the opportunity cost when you define "right deal" then you're straight.

It's just not something a lot of us do, by nature. And I think SG's right to point out that those costs exist.

Fan4Life - I'm not sure what happened inside negotiations, so I don't know. It's a lot of speculation (for better or worse). My point wasn't a criticism of the O's moves, it was simply support for the proposition that our valuation shouldn't begin and end with the value of the player traded/traded for. There are other costs. That's it. The better we are at accounting for those other costs, the greater our competitive advantage over those who do not account for them.

[SrMeowMeow]

Glad to hear you say this....Am i supposed to care or something?

I can only discuss things based on my opinion and what is being reported. I can't base my opinion on the unknown.

If we didn't discuss things being reported, this would be a boring place. Speculation and reporting is what drives many threads around here...It is what it is.

I don't know, some people would care that their argument comes across as completely baseless

Regardless, there are things we know. It is possible to construct an argument based on facts.. The worst part is how circular your arguments are. To assume that there were reasonable deals in place that MacPhail for some reason ignored, you have to start from the premise that he's an idiot. Do you think he's unaware of our terrible shortstop situation? or the fact that we have pitching depth at Norfolk that could have served as our fourth/fifth starters? do you really think he doesn't know when Alex Cintron is available or what the Cubs wanted to give up for Jay Payton, if anything? or that he doesn't know the price of Khalil Greene/Matt Antonelli/Ivan DeJesus/Joaquin Arias? or that Trachsel is a mediocre pitcher with no place on a future team? There are so many things I can add to this list where you assume that he's incompetent and I assume that he's working with more information.

You think that waiting for full information is more of the "same ol', same ol', ten years of losing, blah blah" nonsense. Maybe it is, but to expect MacPhail to rebuild in one off-season when he's said 2010 is the target AND to want to judge his performance before it even ends is stupid.

[hoosiers]

Bedard trade: Again, if the 3 for 1 was the best deal on the table, i would have made the trade. Those 3 were on the table in early december...We knew that then...Bigbird reported that. So, the question on this site was out there...If those 3 are the only 3 in the deal, do you make the deal...My answer was yes...However, it was obvious that in reality, those 3 weren't the only 3 on the table...Again, no way of us knowing that....You are making the same mistake Hoosiers did...You have to bring these points up in the context of the thread that the post was in...What was the thread about? How was the conversation going?

There's no mistake.

You started a thread specifically to ask if Jones, Tillman and Sherrill were sufficient comp for EB and your comments were that one should take that trade if it is on the table. My impression is that this deal was on the table and AM negotiated past it to include Butler.

It's more than a little disingenuous to hide behind some - I'll take that offer, but sign me up for a better one if it's on the table, especially since no such caveat was in most of the actual posts you made.

[Fan4Life]

Fan4Life - I'm not sure what happened inside negotiations, so I don't know. It's a lot of speculation (for better or worse). My point wasn't a criticism of the O's moves, it was simply support for the proposition that our valuation shouldn't begin and end with the value of the player traded/traded for. There are other costs. That's it. The better we are at accounting for those other costs, the greater our competitive advantage over those who do not account for them.

I was primarily looking at BTerp's point that if the right deal gets made, lost opportunity is irrelevant..(if that was indeed his point)... so far we have not seen the FO pass on what has been reported opportunity to later get less for the same player(s) than was earlier reported. I suppose it's difficult to wait until things are actually resolved before we evaluate their benefit or lack there of... but that's really the only time a conclusion can be determined.

[NCRaven]

Dave Trembley - "Just because you start on Opening Day with 25 guys on your roster doesn't mean that's how it's going to be," Trembley said. "It's just a starting point for us. I'm assuming at certain points and times along the way, there will be adjustments." Quoted from today's Sun article updating the roster decisions.

Trembley makes my point that this isn't done. The roster isn't frozen on March 31 and there will still be opportunities to make moves throughout the season. Most teams use the first two months of the season to see what they have on hand and what they need to meet their goals for the season. There will be opportunties throughout the season to upgrade at subpar positions, primarily SS and 1B, IMO. There will also be opportunities for guys who start the season in AAA, like Moore, Penn, Olson, and Liz, to make an impact in Baltimore. There may be more in season moves this year than we saw in the off season.

I'm would love to see us dump Gibbons, it would be a bold, and the right, move. If we could pay a team to take Huff, I'd be thrilled. But, there is still time and this project will take patience.

[Sports Guy]

Can you prove yourself right? That he doesn't know how to do his job as GM? That he won two World Seres with the Twins and turned around the Cubs while all long having the inability to do more then one thing at a time?

No and I am not claiming I can...I am just looking at results.

Would you agree that if he felt he was going to get a SS in a trade that he wouldn't be looking to get another SS in a trade?

[Sports Guy]

There's no mistake.

You started a thread specifically to ask if Jones, Tillman and Sherrill were sufficient comp for EB and your comments were that one should take that trade if it is on the table. My impression is that this deal was on the table and AM negotiated past it to include Butler.

It's more than a little disingenuous to hide behind some - I'll take that offer, but sign me up for a better one if it's on the table, especially since no such caveat was in most of the actual posts you made.

Yes I did and that was a thread that was based off of things that we out there at the time.

And, it was more of a thread asking the HO members that if this is the best deal we could get for Bedard, would you do it?

Again, take the context of the thread and what is being reported at the time.

[Fan4Life]

Yes I did and that was a thread that was based off of things that we out there at the time.

And, it was more of a thread asking the HO members that if this is the best deal we could get for Bedard, would you do it?

Again, take the context of the thread and what is being reported at the time.

Ok, but AM got more than you were willing to take... so why not sit back and wait and see where this goes? It's a little premature to critisize a situation that hasn't completely unfolded yet, isn't it?

[Shopay]

There's no mistake.

You started a thread specifically to ask if Jones, Tillman and Sherrill were sufficient comp for EB and your comments were that one should take that trade if it is on the table. My impression is that this deal was on the table and AM negotiated past it to include Butler.

It's more than a little disingenuous to hide behind some - I'll take that offer, but sign me up for a better one if it's on the table, especially since no such caveat was in most of the actual posts you made.

Absolutely agree. Furthermore, if you go back and review AM's press conference about the Bedard trade, I'm pretty sure he made it clear that Bavasi always saw that deal as a 3 for 1 and AM a 5 for 1. I also believe AM also made it clear that Bavasi didn't cave until close to the time the parties agreed on the parameters (i.e., players) to be included in the deal, which would have been in late January or so, not December. So I believe AM actually got Butler and Mickilio added by waiting Bavasi out. Some on here may try to down play these two players' value, but to have two young, power arms added to an already decent deal was great work by AM. They're pitchers, so they may never develop, but the Royals' scout certainly raved about Butler's potential and the deal as a whole. In fact, I believe his words were essentially that it was perhaps the best haul that has been received in a major league trade in five years.

[Hank Scorpio]

If the deals weren't out there to be made or if the young players weren't sitting there for us to acquire, i will totally agree with the stance you are saying here and what many people have advocated.

The difference is, those things are in place for us.

That is the key in all of this. We have the chance to do a lot more and really put ourselves in even better position.

Something tells me that if AM had dealt Millar and Payton, trade BRob for the 4 for 1 Cubs package and we acquired Arias and Murton this offseason, you would all be kissing his azz...Yet, i talk about it and I am not being patient.

I guess the question is what would we get back for Millar/Payton/Huff/Mora even if we paid salary? If you don't definitively know the answer to that question, then there's really no way to know that we'd be in a better position. Only MacPhail knows the details of the offers for those players, if anyone even answered the phone.

I'm not saying you're wrong, necessarily... what I'm saying is that I'm happy that MacPhail has identified that this team needed blowing up and also that he identified the correct pieces to trade. He has made one decent trade and one very good trade, by most accounts.

I guess I just don't expect that this turnaround is going to happen instantly. Rebuilds, when correctly done, rarely do. I suppose we could completely clean house and get back average packages for our best remaining available players, then trot out a AA team to get mercilessly pounded. I'm okay with getting back C prospects for Millar and I'm fine with just dumping Payton.... but the fact of the matter is that nobody knows what the potential return would be, and without that information, it's impossible to speak intelligently about where we'd be afterwards.

[Sports Guy]

Ok, but AM got more than you were willing to take... so why not sit back and wait and see where this goes? It's a little premature to critisize a situation that hasn't completely unfolded yet, isn't it?

This is meaningless IMO.

I am not on the phone negotiating...I don't know what is being said.

On here, i am throwing out ideas, discussing what we do know and discussing what is being reported. AM knows what is being said and what he can get.

I don't...So, i am going to discuss things as they are happening.(in terms of what is being speculated and said)

Its not like if i were on the phone with Bavasi, i would say, well i know you will trade more but I will take less.

[Shopay]

This is meaningless IMO.

I am not on the phone negotiating...I don't know what is being said.

On here, i am throwing out ideas, discussing what we do know and discussing what is being reported. AM knows what is being said and what he can get.

I don't...So, i am going to discuss things as they are happening.(in terms of what is being speculated and said)

Its not like if i were on the phone with Bavasi, i would say, well i know you will trade more but I will take less.

You're kidding right. It's meaningless that AM gets a better deal than you were asserting he should take, by waiting for the otherside to increase its offer. How is that possibly meaningless?