The Realist's View

[weams]

Here's how I see it: the offense is about 20 runs better than last year's, but due to performance variation, could be anywhere from -5 to +45. The pitching is about 15 runs worse than last year (likely partial bounce back by Tillman and Gonzo more than canceled out by loss of Chen, bullpen about the same), but due to performance variation could be anywhere from -10 to +40 runs allowed.

Best case scenario: 758 runs scored, 683 runs allowed, 89-73 Pythagorean record and maybe +3 for good luck and we win 92 games.

Mid case scenario: 733 runs scored, 708 runs allowed, 84-78 Pythagorean record, average luck and we win 84 games.

Worst case scenario: 708 runs scored, 733 runs allowed, 78-84 Pythagorean record and maybe -3 for bad luck and we win 75 games.

That spread actually feels a bit more optimistic to me, compared to how I'm feeling.

Folks around here tend to call negative posts, realistic. I am sure someone needs to have the supposed "centrist" view. It's all guesswork anyway.

[Frobby]

The main thing about being a realist is to admit that you really don't know with any certainty what the outcome will be.

[Es4M11]

Another important feature of being a realist is to be honest about perceived shortcomings. Which the Orioles have a few.

[weams]

Another important feature of being a realist is to be honest about perceived shortcomings. Which the Orioles have a few.

You are quite right. And honestly, I have no idea how well the Team will do. The Nationals were guaranteed winners last two years.

[21xxxv]

Machado- Improvemnet in 2016, due to 100% healthy especially the first 90 days of the year

Hardy- Improvement. JJ was injured in Spring Training (Labrum/Shoulder) and never regained his form

- Schoop Improvement Healthy mature better plate discipline

- Davis Overall Game will be more consistent. His first 75 days of the season were bad, if not real bad, by that time we were already playing catch up

- Jones If healthy, he will be improved, due to having more quality around him in the lineu

- Weiters infinitley better

- Trumbo-Improvemnet over Delmon Young, and Steve Pearce especially early in the year

- Remold/Alverz/Urrutia, all better than Travis Snyder

- Tillman, Improvement. Out of shape early, figured it out midseason

- Gonzales, if healthy he improves off of 2015

- Gausman every fifth day helps greatly

- Obaldo I have no idea he could win 17 or lose 17

-5th Starter, I like Tyler Wilson

- BP Banter, don't sleep on Oliver Drake.

Yes we lost Chen, but many healthy players retruning with something to prove

(10 more wins in 2016)

[El Gordo]

If you look for a partial bounce back from Tillman and Gonzo then you must expect decline from Gausman and Ubaldo, and for Worley or whomever, to be worse than Norris, for the SP to be worse than last year. If the latter three merely hold serve it should be better IMO..

[PaulFolk]

Machado- Improvemnet in 2016, due to 100% healthy especially the first 90 days of the year

Hardy- Improvement. JJ was injured in Spring Training (Labrum/Shoulder) and never regained his form

- Schoop Improvement Healthy mature better plate discipline

- Davis Overall Game will be more consistent. His first 75 days of the season were bad, if not real bad, by that time we were already playing catch up

- Jones If healthy, he will be improved, due to having more quality around him in the lineu

- Weiters infinitley better

- Trumbo-Improvemnet over Delmon Young, and Steve Pearce especially early in the year

- Remold/Alverz/Urrutia, all better than Travis Snyder

- Tillman, Improvement. Out of shape early, figured it out midseason

- Gonzales, if healthy he improves off of 2015

- Gausman every fifth day helps greatly

- Obaldo I have no idea he could win 17 or lose 17

-5th Starter, I like Tyler Wilson

- BP Banter, don't sleep on Oliver Drake.

Yes we lost Chen, but many healthy players retruning with something to prove

(10 more wins in 2016)

This belongs in the optimists' view thread, not the realists' view thread. Unless you think it's realistic for literally every player to improve in 2016 and nobody to get injured.

Also not sure why you don't think Manny was healthy in 2015, considering he played all 162 games.

[Frobby]

If you look for a partial bounce back from Tillman and Gonzo then you must expect decline from Gausman and Ubaldo, and for Worley or whomever, to be worse than Norris, for the SP to be worse than last year. If the latter three merely hold serve it should be better IMO..

To be honest, I kind of forgot about Norris. The fact is he only made 11 starts, so his overall impact was somewhat limited. We only had 20 starts by pitchers with an ERA over 5.00 as a starting pitcher (11 from Norris, 9 from Wright). By contrast, we had 69 of those in 2012, and 54 in 2013. Zero in 2014. I'm sort of assuming that with injuries, some pitcher who does not do very well will get some starts.

[OFFNY]

Machado- Improvemnet in 2016, due to 100% healthy especially the first 90 days of the year.

This belongs in the optimists' view thread, not the realists' view thread. Unless you think it's realistic for literally every player to improve in 2016 and nobody to get injured.

I'm also not sure why you don't think Manny was healthy in 2015, considering that he played all 162 games.

Machado only won the Gold Glove last year, not the Platinum Glove ...... there must have been something wrong with him to explain that kind of falloff.

[El Gordo]

IMO last year's team was an 85 W team that under performed. Had they over performed they would have been a 90 W playoff team.

[Frobby]

IMO last year's team was an 85 W team that under performed. Had they over performed they would have been a 90 W playoff team.

I agree with that.

[waroriole]

IMO last year's team was an 85 W team that under performed. Had they over performed they would have been a 90 W playoff team.

I agree. They were better than .500 last year, talent wise. I'd say we're about the same this year.

[duffaphonic]

This realist says wildcard. After that it usually takes an ace to advance but I think the formula changes in the playoffs because the relievers come in much earlier. March to October. Go Os.

[bandy75]

Machado got off to a somewhat slow start last year. Defensively, he made several uncharacteristic errors. This may be the 2016 improvement 21xxxv was referring to. Having said that, I think he will have a better season in the field, but it's hard to imagine much improvement overall from the season he put up last year.

[ChuckS]

Do these pythagorean records account for our division being the strongest in the league?

Otherwise it sounds about right to me although I think the pitching outlook is a bit optimistic. I think some regression can be expected from the bullpen considering how good it was last year.

I think we are about a .500 team as currently constructed which probably finishes us fourth in the AL East. There is still some offseason left though so hopefully we can come up with another 1-3 wins somewhere.