Can Chris Davis Be Fixed At the Plate?

[canonfaz]

2 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

Year   Age  Tm Lg   PA   Pit Pit/PA   Str  Str% L/Str S/Str F/Str I/Str AS/Str I/Bll AS/Pit   Con  1stS  30% 30c 30s   20% 20c 20s   31% 31c 31s L/SO S/SO L/SO% PAu Pitu Stru



2008    22 TEX AL  317  1212   3.82   811 67.1% 19.7% 25.9% 28.7% 25.6%  80.3%  1.0%  53.9% 67.7% 36.3% 3.5%  11   4 13.9%  44  23  6.6%  21  16   18   70 20.5%   0    0    0



2009    23 TEX AL  420  1635   3.89  1086 66.7% 20.3% 30.8% 26.4% 22.4%  79.7%  1.5%  53.2% 61.3% 38.8% 3.6%  15   1 11.4%  48  29  5.2%  22  13   36  114 24.0%   0    0    0



2010    24 TEX AL  136   522   3.84   320 62.7% 24.4% 20.3% 30.0% 25.3%  75.6%  5.9%  47.5% 73.1% 30.1% 8.1%  11   0 18.4%  25   9  8.8%  12   7    9   31 22.5%   0    0    0



2011    25 TOT AL  211   835   3.96   569 68.5% 17.9% 26.7% 31.5% 23.9%  82.1%  1.5%  56.2% 67.5% 41.2% 1.9%   4   0  8.1%  17  10  2.8%   6   5   12   51 19.0%   0    0    0



2011    25 TEX AL   81   316   3.90   210 66.5% 19.0% 27.6% 28.6% 24.8%  81.0%  0.0%  53.8% 65.9% 42.0% 1.2%   1   0  4.9%   4   2  1.2%   1   0    4   20 16.7%   0    0    0



2011    25 BAL AL  130   519   3.99   359 69.7% 17.3% 26.2% 33.1% 23.4%  82.7%  2.5%  57.7% 68.4% 40.8% 2.3%   3   0 10.0%  13   8  3.8%   5   5    8   31 20.5%   0    0    0



2012    26 BAL AL  564  2254   4.00  1467 65.8% 17.6% 25.4% 33.2% 23.8%  82.4%  3.0%  54.2% 69.1% 41.1% 2.8%  16   3 10.3%  58  34  6.0%  34  24   40  129 23.7%   0    0    0



2013    27 BAL AL  674  2678   3.97  1627 61.8% 18.6% 26.8% 30.5% 24.1%  81.4%  4.3%  50.3% 67.1% 37.1% 7.3%  49  11 16.9% 114  45  7.7%  52  32   48  151 24.1%   0    0    0



2014    28 BAL AL  527  2191   4.16  1323 61.2% 23.5% 27.7% 27.4% 21.4%  76.5%  3.5%  46.8% 63.7% 34.5% 5.5%  29   3 12.1%  64  24  7.6%  40  23   56  117 32.4%   0    0    0



2015    29 BAL AL  672  2786   4.15  1664 60.2% 20.8% 28.2% 28.8% 22.2%  79.2%  1.8%  47.7% 64.4% 40.2% 3.7%  25   4 13.5%  91  48  9.1%  61  36   56  152 26.9%   0    0    0



2016    30 BAL AL  670  2755   4.11  1622 59.1% 27.6% 26.9% 24.0% 21.6%  72.4%  0.9%  42.8% 62.9% 31.3% 7.5%  50  10 18.2% 122  46 10.3%  69  27   79  140 36.1%   0    0    0



9 Yrs             4191 16868   4.02 10489 62.8% 21.2% 27.1% 28.7% 23.0%  78.8%  2.5%  49.4% 65.6% 37.0% 5.0% 210  36 13.9% 583 268  7.6% 317 183  354  955 27.0%   0    0    0



MLB Averages                         3.82 63.6% 27.5% 15.8% 27.2% 29.5%  72.5%  1.5%  46.1% 78.3% 27.2%         4.7%         14.1%                    8.5%               24.2%

 

Sorry it looks crappy. Anyone know how to make data from baseball-reference not look terrible on the new board? I've tried a few things and haven't got it to look right.

[canonfaz]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

He set the all-time record for striking out looking in a season, and by a comfortable margin.  

Yikes. I missed that somehow. I probably mentally blocked it out :)

[El Gordo]

34 minutes ago, ELMERO said:

Hitting 38 HRs is a magnificent feat and fun to watch, but, sheesh, the vast majority of the rest of his ABs were absolutely pathetic.  How many times did he break our hearts and just leave us shaking our heads or make us want to throw the remote through the TV screen?  I don't mind watching a guy strike out swinging, but, to see him, time after time, after time , just stand there and look at the third strike, is maddening.  Or to see all that open space on the left side, only to hit, what 5-6 balls, all year, in that direction? With a guy so athletic and near perfect with the glove, how is this possible? The thing that really jacks my jaws is he seems to be okay with it all!  Oh, and how come nobody knows how to bunt anymore?  I love OH, with the most knowledgeable fans in the country posting here.  So I look to you for help.  Please don't tell me I need to be on a psychiatrist's couch, although I am a "couch potato".

I don't know about the psychiatrist, but maybe you should take a look at his spray charts. http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=9272&position=1B&type=battedball

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

His basic flaws aren't fixable at this point in his career.   But he had the same flaws in 2013 and 2015.    Hopefully his hands will hold up a little better in 2017 and his hot streaks will be a little longer and the cold spells a little shorter.   He's always going to be streaky and strike out a lot.    That's just who he is.

I really think the strikes looking increased by a lot last year.  I had not noticed those first-pitch meatballs going by him before, and, as canonfaz pointed out, his strike three looking numbers were much higher in 2016 than previous years.  I think he was trying to work on "working the count" and overdid it.  The trouble with tinkering with the approach of a successful hitter, IMO, is that you run the risk of getting overall worse results.  I'd like to see him go back to being the aggressive power guy he's always been.  Yeah, he will have more swinging strikes, but the overall production will be there.  Heck, he's always gotten his share of walks without trying to get them.  Pitchers have to pitch him carefully.  If they know for sure that he wants to look at the first pitch, he's going to be down 0-1 in the count more often than not.  Big difference in the odds of positive results between 0-1 and 1-0.

[Justinlstn]

I'd like to see Jones lay off that slider low n away. If they can fix Davis, then send them to Jones after.

[Larry18]

24 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

I don't know about the psychiatrist, but maybe you should take a look at his spray charts. http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=9272&position=1B&type=battedball

The green ones. Ugh

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

Yikes. I missed that somehow. I probably mentally blocked it out

I don't know of an official list of the most strikeouts looking in one season, but I spent some time looking at the obvious candidates, and Davis' 79 was way above the second-highest I could find, which was 66 by Adam Dunn in 2004.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I really think the strikes looking increased by a lot last year.  I had not noticed those first-pitch meatballs going by him before, and, as canonfaz pointed out, his strike three looking numbers were much higher in 2016 than previous years.  I think he was trying to work on "working the count" and overdid it.  The trouble with tinkering with the approach of a successful hitter, IMO, is that you run the risk of getting overall worse results.  I'd like to see him go back to being the aggressive power guy he's always been.  Yeah, he will have more swinging strikes, but the overall production will be there.  Heck, he's always gotten his share of walks without trying to get them.  Pitchers have to pitch him carefully.  If they know for sure that he wants to look at the first pitch, he's going to be down 0-1 in the count more often than not.  Big difference in the odds of positive results between 0-1 and 1-0.

No question he took more strikes in 2016, including on on the first pitch.   His looking strike percentage was 27.6% (career 21.2%), and his percentage of swinging at the first pitch was 31.3% (career 37.0%).  

[wildcard]

I think Chris knows what he is doing at the plate.  

In 2013 he led the league with 53 HR, 138 RHI he has a 370 OBP and 1.004 OPS.  He was an All-Star.  He struck out 199 times but most fans didn't worry about that much. 

In 2015,  he led the league with 47 HR.  He had 117 RBI, 360 OBP and 923 OPS.  He led the league in strike out with 2008.   Most fans accepted that this production was worth the Ks.

In 2016 he hurt his thumb and it hurt him for most of the season.  It probably caused him to not hit as well as hit would have if he was healthy.

I think Chris has proven he knows how to hit.  I just hope he is healthy in 2017.

[ELMERO]

1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

I don't know about the psychiatrist, but maybe you should take a look at his spray charts. http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=9272&position=1B&type=battedball

Thank you El Gordo.  I'd heard of "fangraphs.com", but never bothered to take a look.  That was most enlightening.  What a great site for enriching my ongoing baseball education. Kudos to you for this and all your posts through the years.

[weams]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

Yes, especially if he gets it out of his head that he should work the count just to work the count.  What so many people don't realize is that the main objective of "working the count" is to get a pitch you can drive .  If the fist pitch is thigh high on the inner half, hit it!!!  Davis took way too many strike one pitches in 2016 that were served up on a platter, IMO.

Exactly. Swing batter batter. Swing.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

No question he took more strikes in 2016, including on on the first pitch.   His looking strike percentage was 27.6% (career 21.2%), and his percentage of swinging at the first pitch was 31.3% (career 37.0%).  

Very true.

[webbrick2010]

The O's FO gave him a 161 million dollar contract

They must think he's good, even planning for the normal regression for a post 30 high K, slugger

They did think that contract thru didn't they?

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, webbrick2010 said:

The O's FO gave him a 161 million dollar contract

They must think he's good, even planning for the normal regression for a post 30 high K, slugger

They did think that contract thru didn't they?

 

Was it the front office?

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

The O's FO gave him a 161 million dollar contract

They must think he's good, even planning for the normal regression for a post 30 high K, slugger

They did think that contract thru didn't they?

 

I'm sure they knew the risks.    They probably hoped to get more from Davis in 2016 than they got.   Hopefully he's got a couple of monster years left in him -- we'll see.

Interesting note: we didn't make the playoffs in Davis' two great seasons, but have made them in his other three full seasons with the team.    Just goes to show, it's never just about one player.