TT: DD becomes a buyer at the trading deadline (2017)

[DirtyBird]

What if the Dodgers' package offered was the same as what they gave for Darvish? Would you have taken that for Britton?

[Camden_yardbird]

If the dodgers said you can't touch our top 3 prospects and the Astros said you can't touch our top 5 prospects then I kind of understand not selling.  The question I have is, how much does Brittons value drop and how much does Brach's value not rise (presumably it would if he were the closer for the rest of the year)?  And is that difference significant from what they could put together?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Camden_yardbird said:

If the dodgers said you can't touch our top 3 prospects and the Astros said you can't touch our top 5 prospects then I kind of understand not selling.  The question I have is, how much does Brittons value drop and how much does Brach's value not rise (presumably it would if he were the closer for the rest of the year)?  And is that difference significant from what they could put together?

And what did the Indians say?  And the Nationals?  Were the Nationals even allowed to make an offer?

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

As for the Beckham trade, the reason why I'm not for it because I don't think Beckam is an everyday SS and I liked Myers. I'm not a big fan of SS who commits a lot of errors and strikes out a ton with little power. The guy has 5 doubles this year, 5! He swings for the fences and runs into a few for home runs, but he's going to be painful to watch in this lineup.

I think the comment that Beckham has "little power" is a bit off base, despite his low doubles total this year.   The guy has a career ISO of .174 (.148 this year).    Average at SS this year is .141.    So, I'd say he has decent and possibly above average power.    Now, if you are saying he doesn't have much power for a guy with a very high strikeout rate, I can't argue with you.

Overall, what I see is a guy who is about a league-average shortstop offensively and defensively (he's currently valued at 1.3 WAR by both BB-ref and Fangraphs), who does have an annoying strikeout habit.    And, I think there's some upside in him.     This is a trade that could turn out very well or very poorly - there are risks on both sides.   

[Aglets]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And you get the return a year later.

A first round pick in 2018 is worth more than a first round pick in 2019 right?

This strikes me as either a false statement or an unknowable statement.   A first round pick where Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are available is worth more than one where there are a bunch of busts, but you can't really know that unless there's an obvious Harper type killing it in college or whatever.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aglets said:

This strikes me as either a false statement or an unknowable statement.   A first round pick where Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are available is worth more than one where there are a bunch of busts, but you can't really know that unless there's an obvious Harper type killing it in college or whatever.

In the leagues in which draft picks can be freely traded is not a draft pick in the present worth more than the equivalent draft pick in the future?

Can you, as an NFL GM, trade a 2019 second round pick for a 2018 second round pick?

[Camden_yardbird]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And what did the Indians say?  And the Nationals?  Were the Nationals even allowed to make an offer?

We don't know what those offers were.  From what it sounds like the Nationals offer would have had to include Robles and Fedde and that wasn't happening.

I am guessing the Indians offer included Naquin, and that is one of the offers that got turned down for medicals.

[weams]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just that August deals are not exciting for fans if you are sellers.

My friend tells me that Tucker or Fisher were Orioles demands from Astros.

[weams]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And what did the Indians say?  And the Nationals?  Were the Nationals even allowed to make an offer?

There is a fax machine and POB for any offer from anyone anytime.

[weams]

14 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

If the dodgers said you can't touch our top 3 prospects and the Astros said you can't touch our top 5 prospects then I kind of understand not selling.  The question I have is, how much does Brittons value drop and how much does Brach's value not rise (presumably it would if he were the closer for the rest of the year)?  And is that difference significant from what they could put together?

The bids I've heard of treat Britton as an injured closer. 

[Stotle]

I am on the Cape right now and everyone I talked to last night (okay, it was only four or five scouts) could not believe Baltimore did not move Britton. One had a previous connection with the Orioles so I discount his choice words some. I guess Baltimore is hoping Britton's value is higher in the off-season.   

[Aglets]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In the leagues in which draft picks can be freely traded is not a draft pick in the present worth more than the equivalent draft pick in the future?

Can you, as an NFL GM, trade a 2019 second round pick for a 2018 second round pick?

I'm sure you could try.   Not sure if you'd find a partner though.   Again, lot of unknowns.   You have no clue where your 2nd round pick will be a year or two from now.

The whole thing with draft picks is they are a bunch of boxes of Schroedinger cats where you don't actually know how good it is until you open the box. 

Of course higher picks on average will be worth more, but that's about all you can say. 

Getting back on topic I could see a team valuing their future first rounder more than their 'current' first rounder if they about to sell off parts and tank in the future (like the Astros or Phillies).

[NCRaven]

16 minutes ago, Stotle said:

I am on the Cape right now and everyone I talked to last night (okay, it was only four or five scouts) could not believe Baltimore did not move Britton. One had a previous connection with the Orioles so I discount his choice words some. I guess Baltimore is hoping Britton's value is higher in the off-season.   

And, if he pitches up to his previous standards and proves his health, it would not surprise me that offers could be better in the off season than they are now.  One of the reasons that teams were less willing to trade minor league assets is that the Dodgers and Astros already have huge leads and were less willing to sacrifice for small marginal improvements.  So, during the off season, more teams may have an interest in having a lock down closer since more teams will see themselves as contenders before the season begins.

[Camden_yardbird]

49 minutes ago, weams said:

The bids I've heard of treat Britton as an injured closer. 

I agree, and as such I think it probably did not make sense to give in to those offers.  Teams aren't stupid, they know what he is, and what they would have next year.

[Finisher]

41 minutes ago, Stotle said:

I am on the Cape right now and everyone I talked to last night (okay, it was only four or five scouts) could not believe Baltimore did not move Britton. One had a previous connection with the Orioles so I discount his choice words some. I guess Baltimore is hoping Britton's value is higher in the off-season.   

Do you think it was just the offers being weak or Angelos interfering?