An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[weams]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Even with hindsight I’d say the only really terrible trades we’ve made were all about money.  The attaching comp picks to “bad” contracts to get rid of guys. Similar idea with Gausman. 

Weren’t there three trades where we attached comp picks to in order to dump the contact?  Webb, Matusz , ????  I know we did it with the Norris deal with Hou but that wasn’t a salary dump. 

We should’ve just eaten the salary. 

Sure. Obviously the Orioles did not adequately have resources to compete. I hate the cheap deals. I want unlimited financial assets to be available when the team can compete. But the reality is that the Orioles appear limited that way. 

[weams]

Our GMS have appeared constrained by a budget with very limited flexibility. 

[weams]

But this is about the 2019 draft. I am constantly amazed by how much these draft boards change over a year. It's as if projecting the future on 17-22 year old  amateurbaseball players in an inexact science. 

[Greg Pappas]

Updated the OP with this... 
Posted by Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com on August 20, 2018  [His updated Top 10 College prospects]

[Ruzious]

41 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Updated the OP with this... 
Posted by Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com on August 20, 2018  [His updated Top 10 College prospects]

Sounds like Rutschman is the clear best of the college prospects, imo - at this point.    

[hoosiers]

On ‎9‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 2:24 PM, baltfan said:

One thing I haven't seen mentioned about Witt, Jr. is that he is currently 18yrs and 2mos.  

This needs to be weighed in evaluating him.  He is effectively playing against some guys that are as much as a year younger than him.  That can make a big difference at that age.  

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15295/doctoring-the-numbers-starting-them-young-part-one/

Late to this party, but this article should really have its own thread. 

The article is excellent and, frankly, I have been waiting 10-15 years for it.  I have long pointed out that the worst Orioles hitting draft picks were old at the time of their draft - both Brian Bass (first round) and Corey Shafer (second round) - very early picks who did nothing but strikeout when playing against age appropriate competition.  Shafer was drafted out of HS and turned 20 in the December after his draft.  Shafer hit over .700 OPS just once - as a 21 year old in rookie ball (!) where hit .871.  Shafer only made it to Delmarva in his age 23 season and had an OPS under .500 in 20 games. 

Anyone who read the highly recommended book Outliers from Malcolm Gladwell is familiar with how bigger, older kids at early youth sports often show success (because they are bigger and older) and then receive the best training and play the best competition and how that early age and size advantage can last well into the teenage and pro sports levels.  It can be VERY difficult for younger kids to catch up.  So I am not surprised at the results in the article at all.

I am somewhat incredulous that such an article is published AFTER the 2018 season given all the studies and metrics and the focus on analytics.  I have to think more than a couple franchises already knew the information in that article, but it is clear that many franchises, possibly a majority of franchises, likely did not.  I also think it is an astonishing failure of the scouting community for not adjusting for the impact of ages in what is recommended.  

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Sounds like Rutschman is the clear best of the college prospects, imo - at this point.    

Agreed.  The second rated guy is a 1B and there is already a "some swing and miss" in the write-up for the third guy.  

Still a lot of time for others to develop and improve, but Adley sounds like both the top player and perhaps the safest player to pick - at least from the college ranks.  Rutschman would be a huge asset to add to the organization, IMO.

[Aglets]

56 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Late to this party, but this article should really have its own thread. 

The article is excellent and, frankly, I have been waiting 10-15 years for it.  I have long pointed out that the worst Orioles hitting draft picks were old at the time of their draft - both Brian Bass (first round) and Corey Shafer (second round) - very early picks who did nothing but strikeout when playing against age appropriate competition.  Shafer was drafted out of HS and turned 20 in the December after his draft.  Shafer hit over .700 OPS just once - as a 21 year old in rookie ball (!) where hit .871.  Shafer only made it to Delmarva in his age 23 season and had an OPS under .500 in 20 games. 

Anyone who read the highly recommended book Outliers from Malcolm Gladwell is familiar with how bigger, older kids at early youth sports often show success (because they are bigger and older) and then receive the best training and play the best competition and how that early age and size advantage can last well into the teenage and pro sports levels.  It can be VERY difficult for younger kids to catch up.  So I am not surprised at the results in the article at all.

I am somewhat incredulous that such an article is published AFTER the 2018 season given all the studies and metrics and the focus on analytics.  I have to think more than a couple franchises already knew the information in that article, but it is clear that many franchises, possibly a majority of franchises, likely did not.  I also think it is an astonishing failure of the scouting community for not adjusting for the impact of ages in what is recommended.  

Agreed that this article seems to be a huge game changer on its own.

But it appears it was published in October 2011?

So I'm guessing teams have known about it for years already.

[Luke-OH]

Jung is a guy I see running up the board and competing for the top college pick. He has an excellent all fields approach, plays a good third base, and has enough power to hit it out to all fields.

[Aglets]

Pretty cool that the author ends his "Part Two" of the article (available here - https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15306/doctoring-the-numbers-starting-them-young-part-two/ )

With a prophetic warning about the Royals taking Bubba Starling 5th overall in the 2011 draft when the Indians took Francisco Lindor 8th overall.

He says it as a Royals fan with a bad feeling, lol.   Bubba was seen as more talented, but he was over a year older at the time.

To date...........7 years later............ Lindor has accrued 23 WAR in the major leagues (over only 4 seasons)  and Starling has never been promoted from AAA.    Would love to look at this for more recent drafts too sometime.     Definitely eye opening.

[Satyr3206]

3 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Sounds like Rutschman is the clear best of the college prospects, imo - at this point.    

I agree but there is a lot of time between now and the Draft.

[Satyr3206]

On 9/6/2018 at 6:35 AM, weams said:

Our GMS have appeared constrained by a budget with very limited flexibility. 

Mid Market Team with attendance down. Makes sense to me.

[sevastras]

1 hour ago, Aglets said:

Agreed that this article seems to be a huge game changer on its own.

But it appears it was published in October 2011?

So I'm guessing teams have known about it for years already.

As far back as I can remember, I had always heard not to draft the 15 year old with a full beard. They peak to early physically.  Not the same thing but similar basis as the article 

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, sevastras said:

As far back as I can remember, I had always heard not to draft the 15 year old with a full beard. They peak to early physically.  Not the same thing but similar basis as the article 

That's a Buck Belief. 

[baltfan]

Adley will be a 21 years and 4 mos at the time of the draft and a junior in college.   Witt Jr will be 18 years 11 mos. 

Adley would have been 18 years 4 mos at time of draft in high school and also a two,sport guy.  I am leaning his way.