Eye On The Prize - Blow It Up

[Leitch]

Re: the closer idea. So theoretically speaking, you would have traded Mariano Rivera after 1997, and if you were the Red Sox you would be looking to trade Papelbon, and would have traded K-Rod a year or so after he became a closer? Not trying to be facetious (or compare Sherrill to these guys), but realistically what you are saying is that after establishing a relievers value by letting him close for a year, your general strategy would be to trade him hoping to get another team to overpay, right?

Oh come on, Rivera's like the best reliever in history. I don't think it's possible to overrate him.

We're talking about how a guy like Borowski had some kind of perceived value last year as a closer last year even though he pitched to a 5 ERA and has like zero stuff. How there is talk of George Sherril(who was a LOOGY last year and the 3rd best player we got for Bedard) nabbing us Reid Brignac plus because he's got 30 saves or whatever.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I'll concede your second point to a degree, but not number 1. In 1997, you did not know that Rivera would continue to be that dominant for what seems like forever. I just responded to Drungo's post . . . with the general strategy of make a guy a closer and trade him, you won't get the chance to see how dominant the player would be (at least not on your team), b/c you trade him as soon as he establishes the so-called closer trade value.

In addition to what I posted above, you have to take both situations into account.

Even if Sherrill was lights-out this year, all it would mean is that teams would be more likely to give up a lot for him. And a team in our position needs all of the quality players it can get.

If we had the 1997 Mariano Rivera (without courtesy of hindsight), I would gladly trade him if it brought back a major haul.

[LuckyHorseshoe]

He's the one sitting up high whining about everyone else without being willing to get his own hands dirty. If he doesn't like what is being discussed, he can offer his own ideas (and I mean ideas, not mud-slinging) or ignore the thread.

He wants to show that he's above us, but his actions and statements suggest the opposite.

So it is all about sinking to his level? I understand the attitude issue. But how does demanding he add salary figures to his plan prove anything? I would not presume to estimate dollars for a Roberts extension or Texeira deal either. It takes two to break a thread and we keep responding to him (a lesson I wish "I" would remember sometimes!)

[AlBumbry]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/riverma01.shtml

Rivera had a 2.09 ERA in his year at setup, and 1.88 in his first year as closer.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrifr03.shtml

He was a setup guy for two years (after the 2002 playoffs), with ERAs of 3.03 and 1.82, and 2.67 in his first year as a closer.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/papeljo01.shtml

In his first year in the 'pen, he had a 2.65 ERA, and 0.92 in his first year as a closer.

EDIT: Compare with...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sherrge01.shtml

...and I think you'll see a severe LACK of comparison.

Ok, if Sherrill had those numbers now, would you still want to trade him? Or theoretically, if we had Rivera now, based only on his 96 and half of 97 seasons, would you want to trade him now? Just curious. Presumably we would get 2 pretty good prospects for him, plus maybe one throw-in (remember, you don't have the following 11 years of what he's done yet).

Ok, just saw you posted your answer before I got this posted.

[AlBumbry]

Oh come on, Rivera's like the best reliever in history. I don't think it's possible to overrate him.

We're talking about how a guy like Borowski had some kind of perceived value last year as a closer last year even though he pitched to a 5 ERA and has like zero stuff. How there is talk of George Sherril(who was a LOOGY last year and the 3rd best player we got for Bedard) nabbing us Reid Brignac plus because he's got 30 saves or whatever.

I don't argue about Rivera is. But back in 1997, you didn't know he would turn into what he has. And, I'm guessing, a lot of people would have been in favor of trading him (in our current situation). And while we might have gotten a couple of good prospects for him, we certainly would have missed out on much more I think.

Now, for the record, I do not think Sherrill is anywhere near Rivera, nor am I opposed to trading him. But I am also pretty sure that we don't have that kind of reliever on our team or in our system. So, based on the strategy it seems a lot of people espouse, we should be planning on probably trading Sherrill this year, Ray or JJ next year, and then the other of Ray or JJ the following year, assuming they are next in line to inherit the closer position.

We hope to get back pretty good prospects, but in the process we have traded away a pretty good bullpen that we could keep, since all of these players are under control for a while.

[Sports Guy]

But they will most likely bring back 4 top draft picks......

Who will? Marte and Nady?

If that's the case, then the Pirates made a poor decision...That doesn't chanmge anything about Sherrill and Huff.

[Sports Guy]

It amazes me how people want to hold onto some of these guys.

Haven't guys like JJ Johnson, Sarfate and even Sherrill himself showed you how you build a pen? How you can always get good arms for the pen?

[AlBumbry]

It amazes me how people want to hold onto some of these guys.

Haven't guys like JJ Johnson, Sarfate and even Sherrill himself showed you how you build a pen? How you can always get good arms for the pen?

I'm assuming (could be wrong) that you're referring to me and my posts tonight. As I mentioned earlier, I am not opposed to dealing Sherrill. But your post is pretty misleading . . .

We got Sherrill by trading Bedard. We got Sarfate by trading Tejada. By the logic implied in your post, we should trade Roberts for bullpen help next year (I'm kidding, just kidding). But still, we didn't get the arms you mentioned for free and I think you're lying if you tell me you expected during the off-season that JJ would do what he's done.

You are a very big proponent of how easy it is to get good arms for the pen, yet very few teams ever seem to have great bullpens . . . perhaps its harder than you think.

[Sports Guy]

I'm assuming (could be wrong) that you're referring to me and my posts tonight. As I mentioned earlier, I am not opposed to dealing Sherrill. But your post is pretty misleading . . .

We got Sherrill by trading Bedard. We got Sarfate by trading Tejada. By the logic implied in your post, we should trade Roberts for bullpen help next year (I'm kidding, just kidding). But still, we didn't get the arms you mentioned for free and I think you're lying if you tell me you expected during the off-season that JJ would do what he's done.

You are a very big proponent of how easy it is to get good arms for the pen, yet very few teams ever seem to have great bullpens . . . perhaps its harder than you think.

Who did we trade to get JJ Johnson?

[AlBumbry]

Who did we trade to get JJ Johnson?

You're too much sometimes. We gave up no one to get him. So you were right on 1 out of the 3 players you mentioned, good job. And again, show me all the expectations people had of him doing what he's done this year . . .

So based on your post, why haven't we pulled 4 more of him out of the system? They're easy to find right?

[LuckyHorseshoe]

It amazes me how people want to hold onto some of these guys.

Haven't guys like JJ Johnson, Sarfate and even Sherrill himself showed you how you build a pen? How you can always get good arms for the pen?

Dare we bring up last year's bullpen and what it cost us?

[Sports Guy]

You're too much sometimes. We gave up no one to get him. So you were right on 1 out of the 3 players you mentioned, good job. And again, show me all the expectations people had of him doing what he's done this year . . .

So based on your post, why haven't we pulled 4 more of him out of the system? They're easy to find right?

First of all, the premise of the post went completely over your head.

Sarfate and Mickolio(not yet seen) were essentially throw-ins in their respective deals.

Sherrill was originally plucked from the freakin indy leagues.

Randor Bierd, who has good upside, was taken in the rule 5. There are always guys out there you can grab..Hell,. Matt Riley right now...We should pick him up. He could be as good or better than Sherrill.

JJ Johnson is a converted starter...a guy I have been saying for a quite a while I felt would make a good reliever...Take an average at best starter, with some good peripherals an good stuff but not quite good enough to start and turn to reliever...Liz, Johnson, Hernandez all come to my mind...immediately.

Those are guys we could really use in the pen who could be very good down there.

Add in Ray, Sarfate, McCrory, Mickolio and any other starter who needs to go to the pen and you have easily replaced Sherrill.

Building a bench and a bullpen is very simple.

[Sports Guy]

Dare we bring up last year's bullpen and what it cost us?

Yep...It was incredibly stupid then and it is incredibly stupid now.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Ok, if Sherrill had those numbers now, would you still want to trade him? Or theoretically, if we had Rivera now, based only on his 96 and half of 97 seasons, would you want to trade him now? Just curious. Presumably we would get 2 pretty good prospects for him, plus maybe one throw-in (remember, you don't have the following 11 years of what he's done yet).

Ok, just saw you posted your answer before I got this posted.

I will add that I don't think it would be a slam-dunk if that kind of closer right now. But I wouldn't just keep him if what we are getting back is likely to be better for the team in the long-term.

It seems that is what a lot of people want to do with Sherrill who hasn't performed near to that level.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Dare we bring up last year's bullpen and what it cost us?

Signing overrated pitchers for big (comparatively) money while adding-in scrubs like Bell and Shuey and Williams?

You're saying that is the same as converting decent starters to quality relievers and having good arms included as lesser parts of trades?