Roberts to the Dodgertown?

[bej6789]

Kemp would almost be the perfect fit for this team right now. Kemp, Jones and Markakis would allow the Orioles to do things in the future.

[24fps]

And Kemp is a much more valuable player to the Dodgers than Brian Roberts would be. Kent is a shell of his former self. Roberts would be a definite upgrade, but not at the expense of one of the Dodgers' best players.

I slightly agree with this which might not have been completely clear in my previous post, but I don't agree with the 'much' part.

If it's true that Kent is "a shell of his former self" - and it's beginning to look like that might be the case - then I would argue that the loss suffered between Kemp and his replacement Andre Ethier, is far less than the gain realized by substituting Roberts over a rapidly-declining Kent. If Kent's condition worsens, a very good case could be made for using Kemp to acquire Roberts IMO. Whether the Dodgers would feel the need to do that is another question entirely.

I just think it would be a dumb move on the Orioles' part because in a straight-up trade, it would be a net loss for the O's.

[roncey10]

This comes from BP's John Perotto about a half hour ago:

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7876

The Dodgers feel they are one big bat away from becoming the favorites to win the NL West, and are in serious talks with the Red Sox about left fielder Manny Ramirez. If the Dodgers can’t get land Ramirez, they will turn their attention to Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts.

I have had enough of Kent at 2B and the Dodgers are really not a power hitting team and although Manny would provide a big bat, I think the smarter decision would be to make a play for Roberts.

The Dodgers could go with a pitching and speed based team.

I would forget Sherrill as part of the deal and just work on Roberts, to make sure Kemp stays in LA.

Dodgers could go with

Roberts

Pierre

Kemp

Martin

Loney

Blake

Ethier

Hu/DeJesus/Nomar

That would be a well-balanced lineup for the Dodgers.

I still think LaRoche/McDonald and Hu or DeJesus is a good deal for both clubs.

LaRoche and Hu would be a nice half of infield for you!

[Pre-Highlanders]

Pre-Highlander,

Do you find it as amazing as I that some don't get it? You are getting responses that scare me about the future of our race.

Not amazing. But lots of fun.

Remember, a number of very smart posters on this board really do think we could get LaRoche for Bradford. And it's awfully hard to know when a stranger is joking on the internet, especially when you're in a forum where you're not typically asked to read critically (the expectation is that people will say what they mean). I hope some of you laugh as much reading these as I do typing them. If no one does, I'll just stop it.

[Lucky Jim]

Not amazing. But lots of fun.

Remember, a number of very smart posters on this board really do think we could get LaRoche for Bradford. And it's awfully hard to know when a stranger is joking on the internet, especially when you're in a forum where you're not typically asked to read critically (the expectation is that people will say what they mean). I hope some of you laugh as much reading these as I do typing them. If no one does, I'll just stop it.

Eh. You're shooting about 50%.

Of course that puts you in the 99% around here.

[roncey10]

Kemp would almost be the perfect fit for this team right now. Kemp, Jones and Markakis would allow the Orioles to do things in the future.

That OF would be sick!

[DNoz29]

I slightly agree with this which might not have been completely clear in my previous post, but I don't agree with the 'much' part.

If it's true that Kent is "a shell of his former self" - and it's beginning to look like that might be the case - then I would argue that the loss suffered between Kemp and his replacement Andre Ethier, is far less than the gain realized by substituting Roberts over a rapidly-declining Kent. If Kent's condition worsens, a very good case could be made for using Kemp to acquire Roberts IMO. Whether the Dodgers would feel the need to do that is another question entirely.

I just think it would be a dumb move on the Orioles' part because in a straight-up trade, it would be a net loss for the O's.

Kent is likely going to play out the year in LA and play almost everyday. There is no one behind him who is worthy of taking his spot (well, LaRoche, I guess, but we all know how that story goes).

Roberts is a good ballplayer, there's no doubt about that. But the Dodgers could easily target Orlando Hudson in the offseason (weakening Arizona in the process). They're similar players, with Roberts being a better base stealer and Hudson being a better defender. To lose Kemp and replace him with Ethier and Roberts is a lateral move at best. Kemp is the Dodgers' best power threat, which is what the Dodgers lack the most.

Kemp wouldn't be as valuable to a team like Baltimore, as they have guys who can put the ball over the fence consistently. The Dodgers would be foolish to move Kemp for Roberts, but not because Roberts isn't a good player. If Roberts was a 30-HR guy, that'd be a different story.

[bej6789]

I'm not implying anything here, so bare with me... but at least in my opinion:

If the Dodgers are dumb enough to go hard after Manny, then we might see one heck of an offer for Brob.

[roncey10]

I'm not implying anything here, so bare with me... but at least in my opinion:

If the Dodgers are dumb enough to go hard after Manny, then we might see one heck of an offer for Brob.

The Pirates asked for Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson.

A GM can and should ask for whatever they want, but it does not mean they will get it.

With that said, Ned Colletti is nicknamed "The Village Idiot," for a reason!

So you never know!

[Lucky Jim]

I'm not implying anything here, so bare with me... but at least in my opinion:

If the Dodgers are dumb enough to go hard after Manny, then we might see one heck of an offer for Brob.

I appreciate the invitation. But for now the pants stay on. Or is this some reference to The Emperor's New Clothes?

I think there's some merit to what you say - a run at (and a failure) going for B-Rob, depending on what's offered, could drive the entire Dodgers bidding process up. Suddenly, what B-Rob costs (even if inflated) might not seem so much. Kind-of like an anchoring effect.

[Big Mac]

Not amazing. But lots of fun.

Remember, a number of very smart posters on this board really do think we could get LaRoche for Bradford. And it's awfully hard to know when a stranger is joking on the internet, especially when you're in a forum where you're not typically asked to read critically (the expectation is that people will say what they mean). I hope some of you laugh as much reading these as I do typing them. If no one does, I'll just stop it.

You had me going for a little bit.

[24fps]

You are partially missing the point.

By value, I do not mean to one's own team, but rather trade value.

Would you rather have Roberts and $40 million less to spend over the next four years or Kemp and nearly an additional $40 million to spend. Hence, the value aspect.

The non-arbitration year and additional three years of control are worth so much in today's inflated market.

For Example:

Could you get Zach Greinke for Brian Roberts? No!

Could you get him for Kemp? Likely!

I don't believe that the distinction that you're trying to draw in the concept of valuation actually exists. I can't imagine a trade scenario where the impact to one's own team isn't calculated on some level. Trade value exists in context.

Out of context, the proposition that a $40 million vet is inherently less valuable than the pre-arb youngster wins every time, but that's not the case with the Orioles. The O's certainly don't need a RF, and LF is handled adequately enough until Reimold proves he belongs or not. On the other hand, the Orioles don't have a ready replacement for Roberts. BRob is a fan favorite and brings a lot of acknowledged intangibles to the club. Even at 4/40, the case can be made that he is worth it on more than one level.

I don't see the team having serious legacy budget problems after 2009, and a lot of money clears after this season too, so on this basis I'm not sure how much your example applies. While I have no proof, I also believe that the team has more money to spend than it actually does, and under the right circumstances will spend it in the future.

I've always been an advocate of trading BRob in the right deal. It's not that I don't like Kemp, I do, I just don't think that a straight-up Roberts/Kemp deal makes sense for the O's.

[Roll Tide]

You could possibly land Kemp and Kershaw for Roberts/Sherrill/Tillman/Arrieta

Hey Stotle... I hate to be in serious agreement here. But there are a few things that one would need to consider here.

First I would imagine that Tillman & Kershaw will likely be pretty close in value. If not now then likley in another year. Last time I looked Kershaw was getting hammered at the majors ... notice his 5.18 Era, 10.5 Hits per9, 5.8 BB per nine. (kind of has a stirking resemblence to G Olson at this point).

The Roberts & Manny for Kemp argument is this

Manny ...attitude extraordinare... And he is essentially a 2 month rental because the 20 Million option is probably not renewed. Very unlikely he'd return in 2009 for a lesser deal.

Kemp... There are the bad attitude issues. I dont know how bad they are or the damage he's done with the Dodgers front office. But you've gotta believe his value has decreased because of them. Probably not by a wide margin but still. Kemp at .287 w/ a K's in every 3.5 AB's & has 11 HR's (1 in every 36 AB's). Still hasn't blossomed. His best years start 2-3 years from now if he can cut down the K's.

Roberts ... Lets face it he's on the top of his game. No reason to think he will be in decline in the next 3-4 seasons.He is under a teams control next season & he would probably sign a 3-4 year (Reasonable) extension if he liked the Dodgers . He is a fan favorite here & theres no reason to think he wouldn't be anywhere else.

I'd say Roberts would be more valuable than Kemp at this point. Especially if they need a table setter.

I doubt Sherrill merits a everyday SP as rumored as the O's want to go along with the SS. But I'd think he'd be worth a couple AA prospects with good potential. Donald & a pitcher.

Because of this I believe your theory is way off. In fact as much as I like Kershaw the only way they get Tillman is straight up!

[TyCobb]

You could make a case that Kershaw is the best pitching prospect in baseball. Tillman is no where near him in value.

[Big Mac]

Kershaw has much more value than Tillman.