Is This Offense Good Enough?

[Bahama O's Fan]

If we had above average pitching, would this team compete for a playoff spot? Is our offense good enough? Is the pitching the only thing holding us back?

[eddie83]

No. We lack core players. As good as Mancini is where would he hit in the Astros, Red Sox and Yankees lineup? 

I said last night outside of Davis I like watching these guys play. I hope Santander works out. Alberto has played well. That said who would you trust outside of Mancini to keep producing? 

[Aristotelian]

We are 25th in runs scored and OPS. Factor in defense, and I would say no, not by a longshot. I think we are trending in a positive direction with the addition of Santander. Getting rid of Davis would help. Need to do something about SS. I agree, at least the offense is not a complete embarrassment.

[Camden_yardbird]

A lot of young and consequentially very streaky hitters.  So no, they have pieces, but those pieces need to develop consistenty and be complimented by some hitters who can provide a more steady floor.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Camden_yardbird said:

A lot of young and consequentially very streaky hitters.  So no, they have pieces, but those pieces need to develop consistenty and be complimented by some hitters who can provide a more steady floor.

I'm not sure that young hitters are more prone to streaks.

[wildcard]

Jury is still out on whether the offense is deep enough.   Its certainly better in the 2nd half since Santander arrived.

2nd half numbers

Villar (370 OBP, 862 OPS) and Alberto  (382 OPS, 914 OPS)  at the top of the lineup.   Alberto is even  hitting righties in recent games.

Mancini (.931 OPS) and Santander (.921 OPS) .

Those are the 4 main stays of the offense.

Ruiz has been hitting since he is back from paternity leave (.966 OPS).  I don't know if that lasts but is the O's best 3rd baseman.

------

Wilkerson is hitting pretty well on the year vs righties  (.787 OPS) and  Sisco vs righties on the year (.781 OPS).

Severino hits lefties well on the year (.854 OPS) and Nunez still has decent numbers vs lefties on the season in spite of his slump (.819 OPS).

Patterson is hitting well in August since his call up .795 OPS.

So there are 10 players that are or have contributed to the offense.   

Davis and Martin are a drag on the offense.  Martin is a good defensive SS though.

We will have to see how the next six weeks goes to determine if that offense can last.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

The Orioles have scored 523 runs.  If they'd allowed 450 they'd be roughly a 92-win team.  The Rays have the best pitching in the AL and they've given up 463.

So if you exchanged the O's worst-in-baseball pitching for the best pitching in the league, yes, they'd be a competitive team.  With average pitching they'd be about a 72-win team.

Or another way to look at this is they're about 400 runs per full season (by offense or defense or pitching or a combination thereof) short of being a contender.

[bobmc]

2 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

A lot of young and consequentially very streaky hitters.  So no, they have pieces, but those pieces need to develop consistenty and be complimented by some hitters who can provide a more steady floor.

Not to pile on like @Can_of_corn but if some good hitters said, "Way to go, hoss!" or "Good job!" after a hit or perhaps tapped their behind as pros do, would that be the kind of compliment they would need?  

[TINSTAAPP]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

If we had above average pitching, would this team compete for a playoff spot? Is our offense good enough? Is the pitching the only thing holding us back?

Why do people keep forgetting about the critical third element of baseball which is the fielding? The Orioles have one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. The 2014 Orioles would have put up well below average pitching stats if they had this year's Orioles defense behind them instead of Hardy, Schoop, Machado, Markakis, etc... 

[Moose Milligan]

Gotta wonder what this offense would look like without Davis, without Richie Martin.  2 players don't make an offense, that's for sure...but when you've got 6-8 automatic outs in your lineup at a time...that hurts.  And I'm not even saying that you'd have to replace Martin with an elite offensive SS or something, that's not realistic for this team...at least not now.  And if you had Mancini at first all year, what else would that open up for the offense? 

Too hard to tell.  But it'd be no doubt better than what we have.  

[jamalshw]

No. There are some interesting pieces (with more on the way), but I think there's a key bat or two not in the system that's still needed. Whether that comes from free agency when we're ready to make that move in a couple years or from the top of next year's draft, I'm not sure.

Renato Nunez is for real, but he's a .237/.304/.467 slash line guy. He has power, obviously, and walks enough to keep his OBP over .300 despite the low average, but that's not really a huge accomplishment. He could be a piece, but that's not enough for a guy that provides no defensive value. If he can be playable at 3B, then we have something.

Trey Mancini looks like a nice piece if we can get him to 1B.

Anthony Santander has been great, but the sample size is still small. I think he's a piece.

Jonthan Villar is good enough at 2B and Hanser Alberto is good enough in a role that allows him to play against lefties, but his OBP is way to dependent on his average.

Sisco and Severino are both interesting despite both having issues lately, but I doubt either is an everyday player.

 

In short, we have some interesting pieces and maybe 5-6 players that are "good enough" for a team that's competing--though not all in starting roles. 

[bobmc]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Gotta wonder what this offense would look like without Davis, without Richie Martin.  2 players don't make an offense, that's for sure...but when you've got 6-8 automatic outs in your lineup at a time...that hurts.  And I'm not even saying that you'd have to replace Martin with an elite offensive SS or something, that's not realistic for this team...at least not now.  And if you had Mancini at first all year, what else would that open up for the offense? 

Too hard to tell.  But it'd be no doubt better than what we have.  

You mean Rondon, for example?  Do we really lose that much if we gave Richie back to the A's?  Even with the 18 days left in August that we need to keep him.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Gotta wonder what this offense would look like without Davis, without Richie Martin.  2 players don't make an offense, that's for sure...but when you've got 6-8 automatic outs in your lineup at a time...that hurts.  And I'm not even saying that you'd have to replace Martin with an elite offensive SS or something, that's not realistic for this team...at least not now.  And if you had Mancini at first all year, what else would that open up for the offense? 

Too hard to tell.  But it'd be no doubt better than what we have.  

Mancini certainly can't play the outfield. So you would have that.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, bobmc said:

You mean Rondon, for example?  Do we really lose that much if we gave Richie back to the A's?

I don't know how much of an upgrade Rondon would be, but sure.  

I see where you're coming from about giving Richie back to the A's but I'm like...man, he's already made it this far.  Might as well keep him the whole time.  I think they send Richie down next year to see if he can get better with the bat and look at his future as a potential utility guy.  

[Camden_yardbird]

2 hours ago, bobmc said:

Not to pile on like @Can_of_corn but if some good hitters said, "Way to go, hoss!" or "Good job!" after a hit or perhaps tapped their behind as pros do, would that be the kind of compliment they would need?  

Yea, that's what you call "veteran leadership."

No, I merely meant that no lineup is giving you 9 guys who perform consistently day in and day out.  Better players have higher floors and peaks which is certainly needed.

I also didnt mean to suggest young players are streaky either, I meant to suggest that because they are young hitters they are more unknown quantities.  The more unknowns you plug into the lineup the more variation you will get.

Fangraphs analysis actually tends to attribute streakiness to K% and HR% and did not look at age as a factor.  One could make the anecdotal evidence (i.e. who is streaky) look like what ever you want.  For instance two of the most streaky hitters in the game are Kris Bryant and Mike Trout.  But those streaks are because they become unworldly hitters for stretches while the valley merely show them to be above average hitters.  That's why they win MVPs.  And why what I guess I meant to say was not necessarily streaky hitters, but young unknown quantities and lineups in which you are piecing together your 4 hottest 40 man hitters and then a bunch of other guys.  Theres a lot of variation in those 4 guys.

I guess the test for this is to split the season into 20 game chunks, measure during those chunks the top four hitters for a team by wOPS, see how many different hitters you get (call it n) and compare to other teams.  My guess is for a team like the Orioles you might get one guy in that list each chuck (i.e. mancini) but the rest of the list might include any number of Nunez, CD for that may run, Santander, Smith in April, Sisco after his call up.  Whereas if you did this with say the Astros you are going to see Bregman, Altuve, Springer in there more often than not.  Their n score would be much lower.

Then of course you would have to see if a lower n score would correlate to better offenses.