Orioles open up job spot for Luke-OH

[atomic]

I just read where Elias said this isn't a cost cutting move.  Right after the MASN announcement was made.  I am guessing he was told to cut costs. 

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

You figure out what inputs (data) have predictive value in what players end up being productive major league players.

You create an algorithm that takes those data points and gives a predicted value.

You collect those data points (weight, height, age, bat speed, velocity, arm slot, extension, reaction time, exit velocity, 60 times, game statistics, spin rate, etc, etc) and input them into said algorithm.

 You pick the kid the algorithm spits out. (with the obvious caveat that there is some makeup assessment factored in, but I'm not sure of how that works)

And then another team comes along and picks up all the guys who don't fit the alogrithm and becomes a champion. 

[atomic]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Brady was relieved of his organizational responsibilities this spring. He is employed in an advisory capacity. Manly on strength and conditioning. 

Does he still have two lockers in the players locker room. 

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I have a problem with scouts thinking that because a player has a less than attractive girlfriend he lacks confidence.  NSFW

 

You keep using this example over and over again. That is one scout out of the several hundreds that exist.  If I say something stupid does that mean everyone who posts on Orioles Hangout is stupid? 

[makoman]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hader topped out at 88 MPH out of HS. 

I have no idea if projection is model-able. That’s an important point, but I didn’t think he was thinking about the 88 guy who can improve to 96, but more the Moyer type. But yeah I would trust models much more with college kids who are closer to finished products. That may be why we (and the Astros) drafted so college heavy. 

Picking Hader in the 19th round is exceptional. But that pick isn’t going to work out most of the time. Is it better in the long run to ignore HS kids there and pick Jensen Elliott instead? I don’t know. 

[HowAboutThat]

11 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

You don’t think these decisions could be performance based? New GMs routinely make sweeping personnel changes.  

 Well we’re talking about two different things, it is entirely appropriate for the new guy to want to clean house of all the old guys regardless of whether they are good or bad. It is also entirely appropriate for the new guy to say, “you’re not good“ or for him to say, your approach is too different from mine and they are not compatible.“

At the end of the day, Scouting remains very subjective, just like coaching does. I don’t know whether these guys are “good” or not, but I submit that the changes were probably because he wanted to bring him his own people.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, makoman said:

I have no idea if projection is model-able. That’s an important point, but I didn’t think he was thinking about the 88 guy who can improve to 96, but more the Moyer type. But yeah I would trust models much more with college kids who are closer to finished products. That may be why we (and the Astros) drafted so college heavy. 

Picking Hader in the 19th round is exceptional. But that pick isn’t going to work out most of the time. Is it better in the long run to ignore HS kids there and pick Jensen Elliott instead? I don’t know. 

I was just pointing out that occasionally a scout does find a guy like that and he pans out.

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Satyr3206 said:

If Scouting, and Baseball for that matter, devolves to this I'll find another sport to watch.

If you read Astroball this caused them to try and trade Keuchel and not value Altuve at all.  They also didn't give JD Martinez much of a chance and lost him. 

If everyone goes down the same path then they will miss a ton of players.  You can't predict what 17 and 18 year olds are going to become with just stats and some measurements.  Also determination is something you aren't going to be able to judge with numbers. 

[Luke-OH]

14 minutes ago, atomic said:

And then another team comes along and picks up all the guys who don't fit the alogrithm and becomes a champion. 

Of course, if you can find and exploit a system’s blind spot, that would be a competitive advantage.

[Satyr3206]

16 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Of course, if you can find and exploit a system’s blind spot, that would be a competitive advantage.

I can show a few. How many players today hit for average like Boggs, Carew, Rose, etc. Almost none. How many pitchers have a decent arsenal without a 99mph heater. Almost none. There is the advantage.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I can show a few. How many players today hit for average like Boggs, Carew, Rose, etc. Almost none. How many pitchers have a decent arsenal without a 99mph heater. Almost none. There is the advantage.

Rose hit 303 with a not very exciting OPS+ of 118.

[Satyr3206]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Rose hit 303 with a not very exciting OPS+ of 118.

I'm sure a few teams might take a player like that.

[atomic]

14 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I can show a few. How many players today hit for average like Boggs, Carew, Rose, etc. Almost none. How many pitchers have a decent arsenal without a 99mph heater. Almost none. There is the advantage.

I just mentioned 2 guys the Astro's had when the current regime took over that they didn't value. Altuve and Keuchel.  Both do what you are saying that no one does anymore.  

If you are a lemming you won't succeed in baseball. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Satyr3206 said:

I'm sure a few teams might take a player like that.

Sure, but I wouldn't group him with Boggs or Carew.

[makoman]

5 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I can show a few. How many players today hit for average like Boggs, Carew, Rose, etc. Almost none. How many pitchers have a decent arsenal without a 99mph heater. Almost none. There is the advantage.

The point of the model wouldn’t be to pick every good player. The point is to pick them accurately enough to field a good team. If the model misses on the occasional Hader or Boggs that doesn’t mean the model failed. Just like Hader going in the 19th round or Boggs in the 7th doesn’t mean scouts necessarily failed. If the model does better overall then it is a success, even if picks here and there are worse than they could have been. Of course this is going to be incredibly difficult to measure.