How often does service time manipulation occur?

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

Wieters signed a minor league deal. 

Well then he was Super Two manipulated. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

Well then he was Super Two manipulated. 

True.

And as a top prospect and a Boras client I was OK with it.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, thezeroes said:

If ou look at the service time cut-off for Super Two Status since 2009, you would think that certain years the clock was used and other not so much. You also need to remeber that the debut date also does not calculate into the service time clock for Super Two until 2 and half years later .

2009 - 2.139

2010 - 2.122

2011 - 2.146

2012  - 2.140

2013 - 2.122

2014 - 2.133

2015 - 2.130

2016 - 2.131

2017 - 2.123

2018 - 2.134

2019 - 2.115

2019 is the shortest period of service time an would most likely be because of the later debuts in 2017.

Thanks for pulling this together.    It’s really hard to forecast what the Super-2 cutoff will be, keeping in mind everything you said above and also that you get players who have had numerous fits and starts in the majors that could end up as Super-2’s.  Look at Gausman for example.   

[wildbillhiccup]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

We’ve had lots of discussion over the years about whether to hold players back for service time reasons, and debates about how common the practice is.     I spent some time this afternoon trying to look at some data on the latter question.   

I looked at every player debut over the last decade.     There were 2,394 players who debuted this decade, almost exactly 8 per team per season.    285 players debuted early enough in the season where they would get credit for 172+ days of service if they stayed in the majors all year, roughly one per team per year.    I then broke down the rest of the year in terms of debuts per day over certain periods, to see if any big patterns emerged.   Here’s how it broke down:

Rest of April, after the 172 day threshold passed:   1.25 debuts per day.

May 1-15: 1.00 debuts per day.

May 16-31: 1.19 debuts per day.

June 1-15: 1.14 debuts per day.

June 16-30: 1.32 debuts per day.

July: 1.07 debuts per day.

August: 1.18 debuts per day.

September/October (expanded rosters): 1.42 debuts per day.    

Overall, I think it’s hard to look at that data and conclude that there’s a ton of service time manipulation going on, at least with respect to when players make their major league debuts.    I do think the dip in debuts in the first half of May is probably influenced by teams trying to avoid the unknown cutoff date for Super-2 status that usually arrives sometime after May 15, and that the late June bump up may relate to the relative certainty that Super-2 has passed.   And, the relatively high “rest of April” debut rate probably includes a few guys who were delayed to get an extra year of control without regard to Super-2.     But overall, I wouldn’t say the effects are huge.    

To really try to drill down on this, you’d probably need to look at who among these players were younger, highly regarded prospects.   Looking at 2010-12, there were 53 players who have accrued 10+ WAR who debuted by June 15 of their debut year.    Only 10 of those were on an opening day roster (or activated in time for them to accrue 172+ service days: Austin Jackson, Jayson Heyward, Mike Leake, Brandon Belt, Zach Britton, Michael Pineda, Yeonis Cespedes, Yu Darvish, Marwin Gonzalez and Nori Aoki.     At some point I’ll have a close look at the other 43 to see if there’s reason to think their service time was manipulated.   


 

Interesting post and thanks for the deep dive into the numbers. Because of fantasy baseball I feel like I pay a bit more attention to the top young prospects than I typically would and in recent years it just feels like the majority of them have been held back. I wonder how much narrowing your focus to the last five years would change that percentage?

[hoosiers]

I think the service time manipulation occurs with top prospects to a much greater degree than other rookies.  And if not stm, then the top prospects are signing long term contracts like Jimenez and Kingery.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

It is also important to note that Service Time Manipulation occurs in both April and September. Here's an article that looks at 2019 debuts in comparison to the service-time cutoff:

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/5/20/18631384/service-time-manipulation-mlb-debut-guerrero-tatis-paddack-san-diego-padres-toronto-blue-jays

If you're a Top Five Prospect, you're probably getting held back - either when you're clearly ready mid-season or in April the following year after a minor-league-breakout Just off the top of my head, I can think of: Vlad Jr, Acuna, Springer, Harper, Bryant.

It'll be interesting to see the results of Kris Bryant's grievance case against the Cubs - a win for Bryant might set a precedent that could change the behavior of clubs in the future.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

It is also important to note that Service Time Manipulation occurs in both April and September. Here's an article that looks at 2019 debuts in comparison to the service-time cutoff:

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/5/20/18631384/service-time-manipulation-mlb-debut-guerrero-tatis-paddack-san-diego-padres-toronto-blue-jays

If you're a Top Five Prospect, you're probably getting held back - either when you're clearly ready mid-season or in April the following year after a minor-league-breakout Just off the top of my head, I can think of: Vlad Jr, Acuna, Springer, Harper, Bryant.

Good article, thanks for posting.    It’s pretty similar to what I did but exclusively focused on one year and drilled down on the BA top 100, which was interesting.  

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, thezeroes said:

2009 - 2.139 (May 19)

2010 - 2.122 (June 4)

2011 - 2.146 (May 6)

2012  - 2.140 (May 17)

2013 - 2.122 (May 31)

2014 - 2.133 (May 19)

2015 - 2.130 (May 28)

2016 - 2.131 (May 25)

2017 - 2.123 (June 2)

2018 - 2.134 (May 20)

2019 - 2.115 (June 7)

I added in the dates on which the Super-2 cutoff occurred each year (if the player stayed on the roster continuously after that).    As you can see, it varies a lot.    

[sportsfan8703]

19 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Wasn't for Schoop.  Gausman was up and down so much who knows?  They certainly rushed him.

Schoop would've ended up being non tendered if we had played the service game.  

[weams]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Schoop would've ended up being non tendered if we had played the service game.  

Twice. Right?

[thezeroes]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I added in the dates on which the Super-2 cutoff occurred each year (if the player stayed on the roster continuously after that).    As you can see, it varies a lot.    

Thanks, The starting date varies from year to year also.

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Schoop would've ended up being non tendered if we had played the service game.  

I've seen folks argue that the O's would have received a better return in trade.  I don't see it given how the market turned out that year.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

Thanks, The starting date varies from year to year also.

Right, that’s factored in.   

[Beef Supreme]

10 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Schoop would've ended up being non tendered if we had played the service game.  

...because of the direction of the Orioles' team, it is indisputable.

[wildcard]

I think for the O's the question that needs to be thought about is which prospects could be in the majors for  5 to 7 years and have trade value?    

Teams benefit from holding back player's service time for two reason reasons.  1) So the player can play for them for an extra year or 2) so the extra year adds to the players trade value.

The O's are in a different situation then most other teams right now.  They are not trying to win.  In fact they are not even trying to improve as a team.   Villar and Bundy show that is true. Comparing the O's to the rest of the league in terms of delaying service is not really relevant IMO.   Most teams are trying to win or at least improve.  Elias is not right now.

Elias has a long term focus right now.   I don't think most fans would not argue with that.

De;aying Mountcastle's service is obvious to most.  So if  Elias will do that, who else would he delay?  Looking at the prospect list the players that are most likely are Rutschman, Rodriduez, DL Hall  because they are the most likely to have long careers.  

The prospects that are to arrive in the near team are also more likely to be delayed because Elias's goal in not to win the near term.  In fact  its to lose to get higher draft choices.    Mountcastle, Diaz, Kremer  Baumann  and Akins are all players that could make the majors in the next  year while Elias is in lose mode.   They all may have careers that could go 5 to 7 years.  Its not a sure thing but it is a possiblity  that is probably above 50%.   Will they be O's that long?   That doesn't matter as much as if the will have trade value in 5 years.   

Lowther and Wells  value without a good fastball is probably not as high.   Zimmerman  is not even in the top 30 for several O's prospect lists.    Elias did not care about Harvey and Hays  service time because they both have had injury prone minor league careers and being injury prone may continue into their major league careers.

It will not always be like this for Elias.  He will want to start winning in a year or two.   Then only the most valuable prospects like Rutschman, Rodriguez and DL Hall will be considered for delay.   

That is my thinking on the subject.  It can be argued whether its right or not but there is some logic that stem from Elias not wanting to win now and him trying to hold on to talent  with value for as long as possible.  Whether those players are Orioles or traded for other valuable players, they still hold value to the O's organization either way.