What can O's players show in 2020 that impacts the future?

[interloper]

On 6/26/2020 at 4:43 PM, Sports Guy said:

I like Elias and the people he has brought in.  I haven’t loved everything he has done and feel he should have dealt guys sooner and used the payroll flexibility to “buy prospects”.  However, we still have one of the worst ownership groups in pro sports and that is going to hold him back imo.

As it stands, I think Elias is going to have to hit a lot (more than usual) on picks, trades, etc...because that family isn’t going to do what it takes to win.

Pretty hard disagree there, but right on. Thanks for the summary!

[eddie83]

I think 60 games will be enough to look at someone like Hays and his plate discipline. Last September was far too small of a sample size but it was fun to watch. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

Cobb looking like second half 2018 Cobb for the whole 60-game season may make someone interested in him as a one-year rental for 2021

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Cobb looking like second half 2018 Cobb for the whole 60-game season may make someone interested in him as a one-year rental for 2021

Does he still have to go through his annual blister problem?

[CarrRun49]

On 6/26/2020 at 6:22 PM, Can_of_corn said:

At 25, 26 and 27 Randy Johnson led the League in walks.

Scott was 25 last year.

Comparing Tanner Scott to Randy Johnson. Nice!

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, CarrRun49 said:

Comparing Tanner Scott to Randy Johnson. Nice!

Left handed power pitcher with massive command issues.

Obviously the ceiling isn't the same but some times it takes guys longer.

[Dipper9]

On 6/26/2020 at 1:13 PM, Sports Guy said:

Nothing.  The sample size is too small.

You're back?  

[DrungoHazewood]

I think the stabilization points of various numbers would be useful for this thread:

“Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

• 60 PA: Strikeout rate
• 120 PA: Walk rate
• 240 PA: HBP rate
• 290 PA: Single rate
• 1610 PA: XBH rate
• 170 PA: HR rate

• 910 AB: AVG
• 460 PA: OBP
• 320 AB: SLG
• 160 AB: ISO

• 80 BIP: GB rate
• 80 BIP: FB rate
• 600 BIP: LD rate
• 50 FBs: HR per FB
• 820 BIP: BABIP

“Stabilization” Points for Pitching Statistics:

• 70 BF: Strikeout rate
• 170 BF: Walk rate
• 640 BF: HBP rate
• 670 BF: Single rate
• 1450 BF: XBH rate
• 1320 BF: HR rate

• 630 BF: AVG
• 540 BF: OBP
• 550 AB: SLG
• 630 AB: ISO

• 70 BIP: GB rate
• 70 BIP: FB rate
• 650 BIP: LD rate
• 400 FB: HR per FB
• 2000 BIP: BABIP

I've bolded the numbers that are possible to obtain in a 60-game schedule.  Most hitters aren't going to get a third of the way to a reliable BABIP, pitchers not even close to that.  Really we should only be paying attention to Ks, BBs, HRs, GB/FB.  Everything else is as much noise as anything.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think the stabilization points of various numbers would be useful for this thread:

“Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

• 60 PA: Strikeout rate
• 120 PA: Walk rate
• 240 PA: HBP rate
• 290 PA: Single rate
• 1610 PA: XBH rate
• 170 PA: HR rate

• 910 AB: AVG
• 460 PA: OBP
• 320 AB: SLG
• 160 AB: ISO

• 80 BIP: GB rate
• 80 BIP: FB rate
• 600 BIP: LD rate
• 50 FBs: HR per FB
• 820 BIP: BABIP

“Stabilization” Points for Pitching Statistics:

• 70 BF: Strikeout rate
• 170 BF: Walk rate
• 640 BF: HBP rate
• 670 BF: Single rate
• 1450 BF: XBH rate
• 1320 BF: HR rate

• 630 BF: AVG
• 540 BF: OBP
• 550 AB: SLG
• 630 AB: ISO

• 70 BIP: GB rate
• 70 BIP: FB rate
• 650 BIP: LD rate
• 400 FB: HR per FB
• 2000 BIP: BABIP

I've bolded the numbers that are possible to obtain in a 60-game schedule.  Most hitters aren't going to get a third of the way to a reliable BABIP, pitchers not even close to that.  Really we should only be paying attention to Ks, BBs, HRs, GB/FB.  Everything else is as much noise as anything.

I don't understand why we would look at 2020 numbers as a stand alone.   Why not combine them with 2019 to see more of a trend?

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't understand why we would look at 2020 numbers as a stand alone.   Why not combine them with 2019 to see more of a trend?

Absolutely you should.  More data is almost always better.

Which is why goals like Hanser Alberto needs to show he can hit RHP, or Ruiz needs to have a .330 OBP are hard to tie someone to, since doing those things in 2020 are going to be about as much luck as skill.  But if you include scouting reports and 3-4 prior years of data that's much better.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Absolutely you should.  More data is almost always better.

Which is why goals like Hanser Alberto needs to show he can hit RHP, or Ruiz needs to have a .330 OBP are hard to tie someone to, since doing those things in 2020 are going to be about as much luck as skill.  But if you include scouting reports and 3-4 prior years of data that's much better.

It would buy them another chance in 2021.   No guarantees but a move in the right direction.

However if Alberto does hit for a good OBP vs righties it adds to his history from last year that he may not be able to do that.   And if Santander can't improve his OBP this season it puts his ability to so in question.

[MountUrCastle]

On 6/26/2020 at 5:52 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Either they have enough data to make informed decisions or they don't.  I don't see how they can in one case and not in the other.

There's very few to no data sets in the world (especially in sports) that normalize over as short of a sample size as the 2020 baseball season, collegiate or otherwise. 

And no, data set is not exclusively statistics. 

Edited June 30, 2020 by MountUrCastle

[Frobby]

Elias says —

On trying to make evaluations in a shortened season:
“It’s going to be a very small sample for these players. I think in terms of evaluating our talent based on what happens this year, we’re going to be probably more reliant on objective criteria that are not the statistical samples that could be misleading in this short of a time. We’re going to be looking at guys’ stuff, what type of shape they’re in, how they’re playing defense, how hard they’re hitting the ball, all that. But it is very possible that somebody has a pretty misleading stat line over 60 games that they wouldn’t have had over 162.

“It’s just one of the many challenges of this season. There are so many, it’s hard to think of them all and that’s just one of them. I imagine we’re going to have to make some personnel decisions like we do at the end of every year and we’re only working with a third of the info that we’re accustomed to.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/06/elias-so-far-we-are-expecting-full-participation.html

 

[CarrRun49]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Elias says —

On trying to make evaluations in a shortened season:
“It’s going to be a very small sample for these players. I think in terms of evaluating our talent based on what happens this year, we’re going to be probably more reliant on objective criteria that are not the statistical samples that could be misleading in this short of a time. We’re going to be looking at guys’ stuff, what type of shape they’re in, how they’re playing defense, how hard they’re hitting the ball, all that. But it is very possible that somebody has a pretty misleading stat line over 60 games that they wouldn’t have had over 162.

“It’s just one of the many challenges of this season. There are so many, it’s hard to think of them all and that’s just one of them. I imagine we’re going to have to make some personnel decisions like we do at the end of every year and we’re only working with a third of the info that we’re accustomed to.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/06/elias-so-far-we-are-expecting-full-participation.html

 

I've really enjoyed life as an Oriole's fan since Mike and the sons have taken over.  ME seems to be very visible and upfront with his interviews.  He doesn't give the "I'm smarter than you" vibe, even though we all know, he probably is lol.  When JA speaks he appears to be the same way.  Although JA doesn't speak very frequently, when he does it's not hard for him to hold my attention and believe what hes putting out there.

Every time DD talked, and specifically tried to talk up a player picked up off the street, it would always infuriate me.  

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Elias says —

On trying to make evaluations in a shortened season:
“It’s going to be a very small sample for these players. I think in terms of evaluating our talent based on what happens this year, we’re going to be probably more reliant on objective criteria that are not the statistical samples that could be misleading in this short of a time. We’re going to be looking at guys’ stuff, what type of shape they’re in, how they’re playing defense, how hard they’re hitting the ball, all that. But it is very possible that somebody has a pretty misleading stat line over 60 games that they wouldn’t have had over 162.

“It’s just one of the many challenges of this season. There are so many, it’s hard to think of them all and that’s just one of them. I imagine we’re going to have to make some personnel decisions like we do at the end of every year and we’re only working with a third of the info that we’re accustomed to.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/06/elias-so-far-we-are-expecting-full-participation.html

 

That is a quote that I'm not sure any previous Orioles GM would have made.  It's almost like we're catching up.