How long do the O’s need to be bad

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Interesting (to me anyway) on the Hey Bill section (which is public) of Bill James' website:

Hey Bill, I always meant to ask you this question. If you were the general manager of a really bad team, say the 1962 Mets: how many years do you think it would take you to build a pennant contender? Thanks

Asked by: manhattanhi

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Answered: 4/21/2021

 I don't really have the skill set to be a General Manager, but I would say this:  that if it takes longer than 7 years then there is something missing in the process, and if you can do it in less than 4 years then you've had some very good luck as well as a good process.  

I like this answer because it recognizes that process is important, but luck also plays a part.  

[Moose Milligan]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I like this answer because it recognizes that process is important, but luck also plays a part.  

I don't mind that answer, either.  But there are some armchair GMs here that'll say you should be able to do it in 4 without fail.  

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I like this answer because it recognizes that process is important, but luck also plays a part.  

Of course luck plays a part.  You need guys to develop and you need guys to stay healthy.  You don’t need your second pick to have a potentially deadly condition hit them.  You don’t need your first baseman to get Cancer.  You don’t need top arms to go down with elbow and shoulder injuries.

There is a ton of luck in all sports.  Anyone denying that just isn’t paying attention.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't mind that answer, either.  But there are some armchair GMs here that'll say you should be able to do it in 4 without fail.  

I’m not sure anyone is asking for pennant contention in 4 years, people just want a team that will sniff .500 after 4 years of losing.

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, survivedc said:

I’m not sure anyone is asking for pennant contention in 4 years, people just want a team that will sniff .500 after 4 years of losing.

This is the simple concept people aren’t getting.  I didnt expect contention this year. What I did expect was a more representative product on the field.  A team building towards something.

We may still get that and I do believe the bogus shutting down of the minors last year hurt us but I want to see a more competitive team.  That may only mean 75 wins but we shouldn’t be watching a product at this point where winning 68 games is considered a bit of a victory.

[Camden_yardbird]

I just don't see it with this rebuild.  I realize it doesn't happen over night, and I realize that Elias has focused on the draft and performance improvement which has raised the perception of the minor leagues but I would challenge anyone to this question, realizing there are some unknowns:

By the end of the 2023 season (5 years for Elias) I expect the following players, brought into the organization by Elias, to have made a meaningful impact and be identified as part of a future competitive MLB team:

Ruschman, ...

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I just don't see it with this rebuild.  I realize it doesn't happen over night, and I realize that Elias has focused on the draft and performance improvement which has raised the perception of the minor leagues but I would challenge anyone to this question, realizing there are some unknowns:

By the end of the 2023 season (5 years for Elias) I expect the following players, brought into the organization by Elias, to have made a meaningful impact and be identified as part of a future competitive MLB team:

Ruschman, ...

The end of the 2023 season is nearly three full seasons from now.  By then you expect little or nothing out of Grayson Rodriguez, Kjerstad, DL Hall, Mountcastle, Gunnar Henderson, Diaz, Baumann, Kremer, Lowther, Akin, McKenna or anyone else including anyone acquired between now and then?

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The end of the 2023 season is nearly three full seasons from now.  By then you expect little or nothing out of Grayson Rodriguez, Kjerstad, DL Hall, Mountcastle, Gunnar Henderson, Diaz, Baumann, Kremer, Lowther, Akin, McKenna or anyone else including anyone acquired between now and then?

He said players brought in by Elias.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I just don't see it with this rebuild.  I realize it doesn't happen over night, and I realize that Elias has focused on the draft and performance improvement which has raised the perception of the minor leagues but I would challenge anyone to this question, realizing there are some unknowns:

By the end of the 2023 season (5 years for Elias) I expect the following players, brought into the organization by Elias, to have made a meaningful impact and be identified as part of a future competitive MLB team:

Ruschman, ...

How do you define meaningful impact?

For example, I think Kevin Smith has a chance to be a solid role Player on the pitching staff, whether it’s as a reliever or a back end starter.  Does that mean his impact is meaningful though?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

He said players brought in by Elias.

Ah, okay.  So mostly players very recently drafted, or traded for the scraps of a 47-win team that had already gotten rid of Manny and the other valuable pieces.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Ah, okay.  So mostly players very recently drafted, or traded for the scraps of a 47-win team that had already gotten rid of Manny and the other valuable pieces.

Exactly. 
 

That’s why I asked his definition of meaningful.  I think Elias has done a good job of bringing in potential solid role players..players you need and don’t want to spend money on.  But are they meaningful?  Guess that depends on your definition of the word.
 

And we really just don’t know how fast Kjerstad, Westburg or Haskin (to make a few) can/will move.  Advanced college bats could move very quickly.

[Camden_yardbird]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Ah, okay.  So mostly players very recently drafted, or traded for the scraps of a 47-win team that had already gotten rid of Manny and the other valuable pieces.

I realize its starting from a very bare pantry but how long will you realistically give Elias.  You are already saying that the end of 5 years is not enough time.

And by meaningful I would include major league or even AAA players who you would identify as pieces of a competitive team, realizing (on my part) that a competitive team is not filled with all stars.

Do you see a player he has traded for as being a piece?  Waiver wire pick up?  I dont really.

[DrungoHazewood]

28 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I realize its starting from a very bare pantry but how long will you realistically give Elias.  You are already saying that the end of 5 years is not enough time.

And by meaningful I would include major league or even AAA players who you would identify as pieces of a competitive team, realizing (on my part) that a competitive team is not filled with all stars.

Do you see a player he has traded for as being a piece?  Waiver wire pick up?  I dont really.

If, by the end of 2023, they really are non competitive and have little from the farm that's about to break through that's going to reflect poorly on Elias.  Something will have gone wrong.  But I don't expect that to be the case, I expect quite a bit of progress.  Maybe not full-on Rays progress, but a path to competing more years than not.

So far I don't know if anyone he's acquired via trade or waiver wire being a long-term piece.  But the focus hasn't been on trading since there isn't much in the way of tradable assets, and waiver wire pickups rarely become key players.

Almost three years from now is a long time.  Three years ago today the Orioles lineup included Pedro Alvarez, Manny, Jones, Davis, Tim Beckham, Caleb Joseph, and Andrew Cashner.  I expect 70-80% of the MLB roster to be different in three years.

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I realize its starting from a very bare pantry but how long will you realistically give Elias.  You are already saying that the end of 5 years is not enough time.

And by meaningful I would include major league or even AAA players who you would identify as pieces of a competitive team, realizing (on my part) that a competitive team is not filled with all stars.

Do you see a player he has traded for as being a piece?  Waiver wire pick up?  I dont really.

I think, only looking at trades, that he has added several pieces that could be part of a contending ML club.  I don’t think any of those players is likely to be a star but solid role players?  Sure, I think that’s possible.

[Just Regular]

It is going to be a long couple weeks until we start to get a view of if the Big Three can lay waste to the Eastern League.   Now is like the movie where you are on the 2nd trailer, and the feature's still 20 minutes away.    We'll be in rough shape if Rutschman Can't Play, etc, but I think we'll be okay there.

April-wise, I think the good early Means/Mullins/Mancini returns are more encouraging than anything bad that's happened yet.

I can't put Matt Harvey in the good list, except for hoping he helps build the brand for some better version of him on next year's roster.