Olney on O’s losing

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, vab said:

The problem here is we really can't see what they're doing with the money they're saving on payroll. A lot of people seem to think they're just sitting on it and if that's true, yes we should be upset. I hope and think they're using that money for player-development. The bottom line is we're going to have to see some real progress in the next couple of years, If not, obviously, changes will have to be made. 

That's exactly right.

We know that the Orioles have $10 million more than they would have had if they had spent another $10 million on payroll this year, or $4 million more than they would have  had if they had increased 2021 MLB payroll by $4 million, etc., etc. But that doesn't tell you much.

Nobody on the outside knows what happened to that additional $10 million or $4 million that wasn't spent on MLB payroll. Maybe it was used to keep the business afloat -- that is, maybe the Orioles didn't have enough revenues to increase ML payroll. Maybe it was used to pay down the team's debt. Or maybe, as many on here seem to assume, that $10 million or $4 million was available to the Orioles, wasn't spent and became part of an account owned by the team, appreciating until the owners decide to spend it. If that's the case, the money might be used to increase MLB payroll in future seasons. Or it might be used for something else, like international bonuses or a new facility in Latin America, or to pay salaries and expenses of additional analysts, scouts and instructors, or a portion of the cost of renovations to Camden Yards. Or it may have gone to increase distributions to the partners who own the Orioles, with Peter Angelos's lion's share of that distribution spent or set aside for his personal benefit: to pay estate taxes or buy out the minority shareholders or give to charity or pay off his sons' gambling debts. Who knows?

An element that hasn't been mentioned much, if at all, in this context is the possibility-- the likelihood, in my opinion -- that the team will be sold after Peter Angelos dies, either because his heirs don't want to keep the team or realize they can't afford to keep the team, or because the other owners decide they've had enough of the Angeloses' destruction of the franchise. If that's the case, why invest in short-term ML payroll? Adding another $10 million or $4 million to 2021 or 2022 payroll by signing mid-level free agents isn't going to increase the amount bidders will pay for the team; if spent that way, added payroll incurred before the sale will come out of the Angeloses' pockets. Investing that money in analytics or international infrastructure to close the gap between the Orioles and its competitors might help stimulate interest among purchasers or what they're willing to pay. And just holding on to the money and then distributing it to the partners would work, too.

The Orioles' payroll (excluding Cobb and Davis) pretty much has to go up. Other than those two and Galvis, by my count only five guys are making more than the ML minimum. Payroll almost can't go anywhere but up (again, excluding those three departed or virtually departed veterans). But there's nothing approaching certainty that the Orioles will have the resources to increase payroll by $X dollars, or by $X dollars plus some or all of the dollars not paid to Cobb after this season, or that even if they can afford it they'll use it to increase payroll, other than to pay what's due to guys kept on the roster as they enter their arbitration years. Add this to the list of things Elias tells us we need to be patient about.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Nobody on the outside knows what happened to that additional $10 million or $4 million that wasn't spent on MLB payroll. Maybe it was used to keep the business afloat -- that is, maybe the Orioles didn't have enough revenues to increase ML payroll. Maybe it was used to pay down the team's debt
 

 

Last I heard the Angelos family was a primary lender to the team.

[Aristotelian]

I do not think a dollar saved today means a dollar spent in 2024, but I think Elias likely has some kind of handshake deal with the brothers that if payroll is kept low now it can go up to $100M once we are .500 and push higher when we are contending. Ownership has always been willing to spend (within limits) when they think we have a chance.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I do not think a dollar saved today means a dollar spent in 2024, but I think Elias likely has some kind of handshake deal with the brothers that if payroll is kept low now it can go up to $100M once we are .500 and push higher when we are contending. Ownership has always been willing to spend (within limits) when they think we have a chance.

It's not the same ownership.

 

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's not the same ownership.

 

Same family, different roles. As much as the Orioles have struggles under Angelos it has been more from spending poorly than not spending at all. Maybe they are trying to sell the team but the simplest explanation is they are building for the long haul. Elias' actions and everything he has said are consistent with shifting to the Tampa model. I am inclined to accept the simple explanation rather than the conspiracy theory but you never know.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Same family, different roles. As much as the Orioles have struggles under Angelos it has been more from spending poorly than not spending at all. Maybe they are trying to sell the team but the simplest explanation is they are building for the long haul. Elias' actions and everything he has said are consistent with shifting to the Tampa model. I am inclined to accept the simple explanation rather than the conspiracy theory but you never know.

To each their own.

I don't think that looking at what the sons have done and extrapolating that they might be maximizing revenue counts as a conspiracy theory.

[Sports Guy]

What does Price, Stroman, GRod, Adley, Baumann and Bryant do for the 2022 team’s chances?

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

What does Price, Stroman, GRod, Adley, Baumann and Bryant do for the 2022 team’s chances?

Wouldn't the games be cancelled if Hell froze over?

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What does Price, Stroman, GRod, Adley, Baumann and Bryant do for the 2022 team’s chances?

Seriously.  No doubt this would make the 2022 team better.  For a moment lets set aside whether this could happen or not.  What do you think this would cost?

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

To each their own.

I don't think that looking at what the sons have done and extrapolating that they might be maximizing revenue counts as a conspiracy theory.

I don’t think we know for sure what they’ll do.   My presumption is they’ll operate their budget much as their father did, and expand considerably when the team is ready to contend.  If they’re not prepared to do that, they’re likely to send the team into a death spiral.    Fan interest is at an all time low, and while many (not all) fans understand that the team needed to rebuild and that included cutting payroll drastically for a few years, if they get the sense that the team won’t spend even when it has a chance to be good, a lot more fans will abandon ship.   

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

Seriously.  No doubt this would make the 2022 team better.  For a moment lets set aside whether this could happen or not.  What do you think this would cost?

Well, I think we could get Price for very little in terms of prospect return and likely get the Dodgers to eat a little money.  So, figure the Os will be paying him between 10-13M next year.

Stroman?  Figure he gets somewhere between 18-25M.  My guess is the Os would have to pay closer to 25.  If we get him for 5 years or less, I’m good with that.  5/125 is more than he is worth imo but I would still pay it.  I don’t think it’s crippling and do think he would be good for a lot of the deal.
 

Bryant?  As I said yesterday, I would be ok with 6/200.  Thats more per year than he’s worth but that’s ok.

For me, it’s about the years, not the money.  I don’t know if there are still going to be financial issues for some of these teams because of 2020 and smaller crowds, in some cases, throughout this whole year.  Plus you have the CBA uncertainty.

In other words, I really don’t know what the market is going to be like.  But as of right now, these are the thresholds I would be comfortable with.

It would also depend on how they structure the deals in terms of what is added for next year.  
 

So I figure, 60ishM or so added to next years payroll.  
 

You could still deal Mancini in the offseason to keep some costs down if you need to. That may counterproductive in terms of trying to win but I think you can argue that it’s a smart move to buy and sell w/r/t Trey.  

[Moose Milligan]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What does Price, Stroman, GRod, Adley, Baumann and Bryant do for the 2022 team’s chances?

I think it'd be cool and it'd be fun, but you know as much as I do that Price, Stroman and Bryant absolutely have no shot of coming here.  I'd take any of the three, to be honest.  

[Sports Guy]

To follow up on that last post…

One thing to remember is that a big part of rebuilding is that you have obtain long term payroll flexibility.

At this moment, the Os have zero guaranteed dollars on the 2023 payroll outside of any deferred payments they owe, which is very little money in the grand scheme of things.

You have some arb eligible  guys that will be making some decent salaries if they are still here but generally speaking, the guaranteed money is next to nothing.

On top of that, you also have the “Lamar Jackson scenario”.  IE, you have important, elite level assets making next to no money, so you take advantage of that by signing vets to contracts.  The bottom line number SHoULD be the total budget.  It shouldn’t matter if a few guys are making a lot of the money.  If Adley is a 5+ WAR guy making 500k, great.  If GRod is a borderline CY candidate making 500k, great.  You aren’t paying for that production.  That allows you to go crazy for guys.  Look at what SD has done, for example.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think it'd be cool and it'd be fun, but you know as much as I do that Price, Stroman and Bryant absolutely have no shot of coming here.  I'd take any of the three, to be honest.  

Well, I don’t think it happens because of the Angelos family.  It certainly could happen and the team certainly can spend the money to lure them here and we have the spots and the young players to put around them to make it a worthwhile move but yea, I’m guessing the Angelos family wouldn’t allow it.

[foxfield]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I think we could get Price for very little in terms of prospect return and likely get the Dodgers to eat a little money.  So, figure the Os will be paying him between 10-13M next year.

Stroman?  Figure he gets somewhere between 18-25M.  My guess is the Os would have to pay closer to 25.  If we get him for 5 years or less, I’m good with that.  5/125 is more than he is worth imo but I would still pay it.  I don’t think it’s crippling and do think he would be good for a lot of the deal.
 

Bryant?  As I said yesterday, I would be ok with 6/200.  Thats more per year than he’s worth but that’s ok.

For me, it’s about the years, not the money.  I don’t know if there are still going to be financial issues for some of these teams because of 2020 and smaller crowds, in some cases, throughout this whole year.  Plus you have the CBA uncertainty.

In other words, I really don’t know what the market is going to be like.  But as of right now, these are the thresholds I would be comfortable with.

It would also depend on how they structure the deals in terms of what is added for next year.  
 

So I figure, 60ishM or so added to next years payroll.  
 

You could still deal Mancini in the offseason to keep some costs down if you need to. That may counterproductive in terms of trying to win but I think you can argue that it’s a smart move to buy and sell w/r/t Trey.  

I really see almost no value to Price.  And I do not think $60 Million is an unreasonable add to next years budget, even if it is probably unlikely.   Bryant may very well be sold on being part of something here.  But overpay and 5 years for a pitcher in Baltimore isn't happening with Stroman IMHO.

But it would be fun...