Elementary, my dear Watson

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, Hazmat said:

I guess I look at his OBP and don't see a likely path to a major league contributor.  If you're 24 and can just barely get above .300 OBP in High A...

You're not wrong.  But again, he's a 3rd round pick.  Obviously you need to hit with those guys every now and again but most of them aren't going to be MLB players.  I guess I just see the word "disappointment", and ultimately - he's performing about what I would expect out of that spot.  He's shown a bit of pop and is holding his own.  Like I said earlier if Trimble and Rhodes are much better than that they will have been some pretty good picks.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

You're not wrong.  But again, he's a 3rd round pick.  Obviously you need to hit with those guys every now and again but most of them aren't going to be MLB players.  I guess I just see the word "disappointment", and ultimately - he's performing about what I would expect out of that spot.  He's shown a bit of pop and is holding his own.  Like I said earlier if Trimble and Rhodes are much better than that they will have been some pretty good picks.

i agree. I've seen much, much worse 3rd round picks come through the system. He's at least interesting.

[interloper]

15 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

You're not wrong.  But again, he's a 3rd round pick.  Obviously you need to hit with those guys every now and again but most of them aren't going to be MLB players.  I guess I just see the word "disappointment", and ultimately - he's performing about what I would expect out of that spot.  He's shown a bit of pop and is holding his own.  Like I said earlier if Trimble and Rhodes are much better than that they will have been some pretty good picks.

To continue the Hays comparison, Hays was a 3rd round pick as well. Although he was 21 in high A ball and hit 32 bombs. Safe to say that was a stellar 3rd round pick, even if he's been hit or miss at the big league level. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, interloper said:

To continue the Hays comparison, Hays was a 3rd round pick as well. Although he was 21 in high A ball and hit 32 bombs. Safe to say that was a stellar 3rd round pick, even if he's been hit or miss at the big league level. 

For whatever reason, the O’s have done well in the 3rd round over the years.  Starting with Eddie Murray!    Zach Britton also was a 3rd rounder.   Also Chris Ray.  All in all 21 3rd rounders signed by the O’s have played in the majors.   

[Hazmat]

17 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

i agree. I've seen much, much worse 3rd round picks come through the system. He's at least interesting.

Certainly, the O’s have made worse picks using their #1 pick than they did with their 3rd for Watson but I think our bar needs to be higher if we are to be a successful organization.  If Trimble and Rhodes aren’t a lot better than Watson, we are in big trouble.

[survivedc]

4 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

Certainly, the O’s have made worse picks using their #1 pick than they did with their 3rd for Watson but I think our bar needs to be higher if we are to be a successful organization.  If Trimble and Rhodes aren’t a lot better than Watson, we are in big trouble.

We’re in big trouble if the success of a 3rd and 4th round pick in a single draft dictate if we’re in big trouble.

[deward]

1 minute ago, survivedc said:

We’re in big trouble if the success of a 3rd and 4th round pick in a single draft dictate if we’re in big trouble.

Exactly this.

[Hazmat]

29 minutes ago, survivedc said:

We’re in big trouble if the success of a 3rd and 4th round pick in a single draft dictate if we’re in big trouble.

Agreed.  You can revisit the waling and gnashing of teeth in the 2021 draft thread.  Until our Latin American prospects start to show promise and we start buying some FA's other than the Franco's and Galvis' of the world, the draft is that much more important to our success.

[LookinUp]

45 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

Agreed.  You can revisit the waling and gnashing of teeth in the 2021 draft thread.  Until our Latin American prospects start to show promise and we start buying some FA's other than the Franco's and Galvis' of the world, the draft is that much more important to our success.

This probably deserves its own "the status of our rebuild" thread, but I couldn't agree more. It argues to me that we're still a couple of years away from having the minor league system that we want.

The more I think about it, the more I think Elias should finally sign legit stop gap guys this offseason at pitcher and in the infield. I don't want to rush Henderson in particular and any international cavalry is probably 4+ years away. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Hazmat said:

Certainly, the O’s have made worse picks using their #1 pick than they did with their 3rd for Watson but I think our bar needs to be higher if we are to be a successful organization.  If Trimble and Rhodes aren’t a lot better than Watson, we are in big trouble.

I think you over estimate the chances of finding a quality big league player in the 3rd round. As Frobby has pointed out, the Orioles have actually been pretty decent over the years in the 3rd round, and yes, I'm sure the team would like more than a 4th outfielder with all of their picks, but it's not going to happen. 

You get a guy like Watson with some pop and speed in the 3rd round and you see if your development guys can get him to be a better hitter. I don't have a problem with the pick when I look at the tool set Watson carries. Even though he was a senior sign guy and 24 now, he still has time to improve.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think you over estimate the chances of finding a quality big league player in the 3rd round. As Frobby has pointed out, the Orioles have actually been pretty decent over the years in the 3rd round, and yes, I'm sure the team would like more than a 4th outfielder with all of their picks, but it's not going to happen. 

You get a guy like Watson with some pop and speed in the 3rd round and you see if your development guys can get him to be a better hitter. I don't have a problem with the pick when I look at the tool set Watson carries. Even though he was a senior sign guy and 24 now, he still has time to improve.

I am working on a project where I’m looking at every single team’s draft over an eight year period to try to define what a good draft is and how many you need to develop a good team.  Hope to finish this weekend and post about it.   It’s already clear to me that drafting is just one leg of the stool, though.   

[Hazmat]

43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think you over estimate the chances of finding a quality big league player in the 3rd round. As Frobby has pointed out, the Orioles have actually been pretty decent over the years in the 3rd round, and yes, I'm sure the team would like more than a 4th outfielder with all of their picks, but it's not going to happen. 

You get a guy like Watson with some pop and speed in the 3rd round and you see if your development guys can get him to be a better hitter. I don't have a problem with the pick when I look at the tool set Watson carries. Even though he was a senior sign guy and 24 now, he still has time to improve.

I recognize that.  I think the point I was making has been lost.  If Trimble and Rhodes are not much better than Watson, a college draft pick whose combined OBP over 2 seasons in the low minors is sub .300, it will very disappointing and a set back to the O's.  We need those guys to be good to show that Elias' scouting and minor league system is legitimate and because we haven't seen any indication we're signing bigtime FA's.

[Aristotelian]

OPS up to .895 at Bowie. 16 HR across levels this year. OBP still a concern but I am having a hard time seeing why he should be lower than Haskin if he is legit CF.

[sportsfan8703]

Now officially at a 20/20 season. 20/24 to be exact. 

[Hazmat]

55/7 K to BB ratio and a .285 OBP in AA.